At the break of Gawn

Disgusting from the Suns

Geez the Suns always disappoint me. How do you let a 40pt lead just whittle away?

What are the chances of Pies losing next week and we stay in 4th? I can’t see Lions losing to the Saints which means playing Brisbane at the Gabba in a QF wouldn’t be great at all for us.

I’ll eat my hat if Grundy is selected based on Goody’s answer in the presser. I think the changes will be: Ins: Tomlinson Out: Grundy, Hibbo (sub) I think sub will be one of JJ, Spargo or Laurie.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if bringing in McKay this week stuffs their flow up and they lose to GC. Also, the GC are a contest and defence side and very hard up there. If Saints and Dogs win on Saturday and the Blues lose, it’ll come down to the last game for Carlton. They can still miss the 8.

Trac gets 7 or 8 if that goal is allowed.

Anyone else watch On the Couch? Pretty much showed that Grundy barely played any minutes forward in the second half and our plan B was Smith. Basically surmised that the coaching department had given up on the Grundy plan (plan A) and went to plan B in the second half. Grundy was also targeted 0 times on Saturday night.

I can’t see us taking Hawthorn lightly. My concern though is their newish kick + mark game. We need to really close space against them and not let them pick the eyes out of our defence.

I just saw the coaches votes. Trac got the 1 vote and now is behind Daicos on 99 (Butters is on 92) It really is a game of millimeters because if his goal is allowed, he probably gets 7-8 votes in total as he’s the match winner, the highest goal scorer on the ground and also got 20+ disposals.

It’ll come down to selection for me, but if Grundy goes out I think we’re probably 80-20 chance. It’ll lower if he stays in. Max needs to go solo. Swans, we’re probably 40-60. We lost our last game at the SCG to a last placed Collingwood in 2021. Plus it always seems to rain at the SCG.

That’s my worry. Lose to Hawks and that’s it. If we finish 5th it’s likely going to be: Crows at the G (50-50 really) Blues (or Collingwood) in a Semi at the G And if we win that, Port at Adelaide Oval.

That’s true. However, since the new finals system, no team has won it from 4th. It’s the top 3 or nothing. Which means we need to win our last 2. A month ago our last 2 looked like a walk in the park, now both are danger games where if we don’t bring our A game we’ll fall short.

I’m holding my breath for team selection this week. Grundy again this week will be a huge mistake for our forward mix.

Look, I know coming into this round we had won 5 on the trot, but we haven’t played anywhere near as convincingly as some would say. Let’s break down those 5 wins: 1. Saints @ Marvel Saints lost 3 players in game and were always going to run out of legs. We even almost got overrun in that last qtr. Just a win in my book. 2. Lions @ MCG Despite a blistering first qtr and an awesome last 7 minutes, the Lions looked the far better side and torched us with their ball movement. We were lucky to get the win in the end. 3. Adelaide @ MCG Good first 3 qtrs against a decent side but we conceded 7 goals in a row in the last qtr and almost got overrun. 4. Richmond @ MCG Our best win I think but Richmond (who’s firmly a bottom 8 side) got up by 20pts in the 3rd qtr and made our defence look really shaky with quick forward entries. 5. North @ BA I know the second half was easy going but to let a team as bad as that to get up by 30pts is just worrying in itself. I get the whole not switched on thing, but we got jumped again last night. I feel like if we’re a genuine shot at the flag this year we really need to see two really strong performances against the Hawks and Swans. In some ways, last night’s loss might be a blessing because there’s so much in our game that we still need to get right and hopefully it spurs on Goodwin to make those final tweaks to get us there.

Port look to have their game back. I think it’s either port away or Pies at the MCG for us (assuming we win one of our last 2)

Yep although I worry about Breust. I think Hibbo should come in for him.

The headline will be this week that Grundy’s dropped again. I’ve got no confidence in us kicking winning scores with him in the forward line. My ins are: Tomlinson, Hibberd, Out: Bowey, Grundy Spargo the sub

Pies were exactly the same last year in that round 20 game. I can’t wait to see Carlton falter in the finals. There’s no way the premiership is being won by a team that lost something like 9 in a row earlier in the year. It just doesn’t happen.

The AFL need to get rid of the soft call. The goal umpire should just say “score review” and let the ARC decide. I think if that system was in place, most people would have been comfortable with that being called a goal as there was no evidence of it being touched. The only thing is that the umpire can hear the touch but you can’t hear [censored] with 70k fans screaming. In regards to the other parts of the game, I can’t see Grundy staying in. You just can’t carry a tall forward role with no goals to your name and no shots on goal. Letting them kick those quick centre bounce goals hurt. We just weren’t desperate enough in the contest. Owies goal was a fluke and geez I hate his over the top celebrations. Overall though I thought our defence was pretty good, but Carlton’s pressure was insane. I can only hope they run out of fuel by the finals because if you bring that much pressure and intensity you can beat anyone. Even guys like Jack Martin are buying in. We just have to win next week now. I do not want top 4 on the line in the last round because Carlton might genuinely pinch our spot if we lose to Hawthorn and they keep winning. Hoping to beat Sydney to claim top 4 at the SCG would be a disaster.

Feel like Carlton can’t play any better than this and we just need to make a few changes and a few less errors and we run away with this.

Radar is looking ok now

I can’t see that happening with his around the ground dominance of Gawn. I think JvR will play the Petty role and Grundy the JvR role. I’ll put my house on Grundy starting on the ground at FF/CHF.

I’m glad I’m not the only one that sees it this way. Yes, Carlton are a better side now, but they’ve played every team at the right time. Pies off, Port basically tanked that game with 7 changes, the Saints have lost their way, Eagles don’t count, for every good Hawks game they put in a shocker, while the Suns and Freo have had a terrible second half of the year. I think tomorrow they’ll get found out and they’ll be fighting for a top 8 position for the last two rounds like last year.

I’ll be more interested in how we play. Sure a win is great but if Grundy does nothing and somehow Melksham kicks a bag then I’m not sure I’ll take a whole lot of confidence from it.