At the break of Gawn

I’ve just finished watching the replay. It wasn’t as obvious to me at the ground, but I think the main part of the reason we lost is the coaches didn’t anticipate some of the structural changes Collingwood implemented behind the ball. They held their defenders (particularly Moore and IQ) very deep. Perhaps it was the absence of Murphy/Moore for a few weeks but Collingwood were pressing too high the last few weeks and were leaking goals out the back. They clearly worked on that during the bye. Even when our players created a forward half turn-over, Moore was always there in our D50. Our coaches were too slow to react to this and I didn’t think any meaningful action was done to bring their defence higher. Perhaps bringing up JVR, Smith and McDonald higher up the ground, isolating Kozzy. Even isolating Trac if that was an option. Collingwood were successful isolating Elliott but unfortunately for them he couldn’t kick straight and Hibberd was huge. I agree at times we bombed it in and didn’t try and bring up the Pies defenders, but I think one thing we’re overlooking is the smart and strategic coaching by Collingwood to hold their defenders back. They were excellent and we failed to adjust. So my question to Binman/George is this: If Carlton employ a similar tactic and hold Weitering really deep, what can our forwards and mids do? When Carlton has their defence set, do we kick around and chip the ball to bring forward their defence? Isolate Petracca and encourage the other forwards to get higher? I felt we had near to none genuine one-on-ones on Thursday. I haven’t watched the second half of the Swans v Blues game in detail, but I’m keen to see how Sydney got really good looks against the Carlton defence.

We lost to Carlton by a finger nail in the rain (which we’re terrible in). We’ve now got another chance at them in bone dry conditions If we can’t get it done, then we don’t deserve to be in the prelim, let alone the GF.

Brisbane had 64 inside 50s (still 5 less than us) and they kicked 70 more points than us. Unbelievable

If we somehow miraculously fix our forward issues and beat Carlton, I think we can beat Brisbane. We’re the last team to beat them there and they will be a bit shell shocked to play a game with a defence as good as ours. But, ultimately I just have a feeling that with the momentum Carlton have, they’ll get over the top of us.

We need the GWS forward line coach. They’ve averaged over 100 points the last 5 weeks and look super efficient. Forward efficiency will be the story of this finals series.

https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/1700421909945765913?s=46&t=PgGGBVtPGxmKYqlW0SqdRw

I think we’ll throw everything at Carlton and put in a really spirited performance (just like in round 22) but ultimately fall short because of the lack of forward talent and mix.

Expected score is a fallacy and I really hope Goodwin doesn’t just think our forward efficiency is just a simple fix. I hope the FD pauses the tape at every inside 50 and shows where the better option was. Also the lack of leading is extremely concerning. It’s either they’ve been directed not to because the FD just wants deep entries or the forwards are lacking some sort of confidence.

Finishing 3rd would have been much better in hindsight. A free hit at the Lions at the GABBA while they have all the pressure on them. Then if we had lost, an MCG home final against probably the Giants where we would have had the 19th man

I think we need another mid as the sub. We need extra mids coming through if Trac is to play forward and we can’t be robbed of that again if someone like a Viney goes down. I also think we’ll need an extra tall down back if Silvagni plays.

Voss has said McKay is in the concussion protocols.

I’m not fussed about McKay playing or not. If he plays we will probably play a third tall which will suit us. The weather looks dry all week so it’ll be a dry deck. Martin not playing is a bigger win. He was very good against us last time.

Why were the Fox commentators lauding Sydney for their comeback but bashed us even though we did exactly the same thing?

Carlton have been better without McKay to be honest. They won’t miss him next week.

More likely to turn it into fever pitch.

Both. Doesn’t matter how fired up we come out next week. We’re unable to kick a winning score.

Straight sets coming up again for us.

I think Schache has to come in. At least he’s a reliable set shot. Grundy into the side and moving Gawn forward will tempt the mids to bomb in long again. We brought Grundy in against Carlton last time and couldn’t even crack 60pts.

💯. The coaches and media were lauding our defensive prowess but no one was pointing out that we were averaging 60-70pts the last 3 weeks before this game.

Consecutive straight sets for us I think. Carlton will most definitely win tonight. They defend their D50 better than anyone.

Extremely flat this morning. Last year’s QF I just felt we were genuinely outplayed and came to the realisation we’re just not that good. This year I think there’s no real stand-out team in our way and it will genuinely be a missed opportunity if we don’t win it this year. We absolutely shot ourselves in the foot. Just dumb, easy to defend entries, time after time. We were our own worst enemy. I suppose instead of looking at the last 6 weeks of form, all we really needed to focus on was the last 3 weeks was leading to this game. We’re averaging just 68pts per game since Petty went out. In my mind, we’re just an upmarket version of the Saints. What worries me the most is if we do go out in straight sets again I really feel it may break this group. What’s the point of finishing top 4 in season if you can’t win a final? I think it will severely dampen this teams confidence and even our supporter base for next year if we can’t win at least one final this finals series.

Collingwood actually defend their inside 50 really well. They have been off for a few weeks and they’re vulnerable on transition, but if it’s just bog average repeat entries, they’ve got 4 very good interceptors (Moore, Quaynor, Murphy and Howe). I listened to Sparrow after the game on SEN and the coaches were trying to get them to add more speed on the ball and different angles but we couldn’t execute as well. In my opinion, this game was extremely similar to QB. The only difference was that Fritsch nailed his set shots that game. I’ve got no confidence against Carlton next week (if we play them). They defend their D50 better than anyone. To think we’ve gone from winning a flag to staring down 4 straight finals losses is inconceivable.

I’ll just leave this here: Goodwin: “In finals, your vulnerabilities are exposed” Our vulnerability is our ability to score. It’s been our vulnerability for 2 years, and we thought we could fix it with an old forward who hasn’t played AFL footy in months

Not great conditions for Cox or Cameron either

Rain is here