At the break of Gawn

Essendon's loss is great for us. We will be 5th at the end of the round assuming the Swans and the Giants win. We will be 4th at the end of the round if the Swans win and the Giants lose...

lol go Crows!

Wow Martin really is a serial ducker

This is the worst defending I’ve seen all year by two AFL teams. Absolute garage and can’t believe Essendon are in the 8.

Have you seen the weather forecast? It’s going to be wet. Darcy will be a liability out there.

I’m still fascinated by who goes out next week when Max comes in. Is Sunday Petty’s last chance? Or is he a permanent fixture and they’ll demote someone like the Kolt to sub?

They’ve won the last 2, but wouldn’t necessarily say they’ve got the wood over us. They haven’t beaten us at Optus Stadium yet…

I've done the ladder predictor at least a dozen times, and I'm fairly confident 13 wins will be enough if expected results go our way (e.g. Dogs lose to Geelong and Sydney, Port lose to Carlton, Sydney and Freo at Optus etc) and we beat Port and the Giants. In my opinion the most crucial clash that can help us stay in with 13 wins is the Q clash game between the Suns and Brisbane. If Brisbane can knock the Suns off at HBS, then I'm fairly confident the Suns won't catch us based off their terrible away record while still assuming they beat West Coast and Richmond away. I've got the Suns, Port and Hawks all finishing on 12 wins. The Dogs and Pies on 11 wins. My run home prediction is: Freo - L Giants - W Dogs - W Port - W Suns - L Pies - L Although I'm pretty sure the Pies will be dead and buried by round 24, my past trauma makes me somehow expect to lose that game.

It's a cheap and ignorant shot by opposition fans. If you look at it objectively, we had to beat a fellow Victorian team at a neutral venue. The win ranks far higher than the Pies (an MCG tenant club) beating an interstate side at the MCG who plays there 1-2 times a year. As for the media heat on Geelong and Collingwood vs Melbourne. I think the main reason for that is the list profile. When Melbourne won the flag, the expectation was that we had such a core in their prime we could do it again and again. Geelong's win was the "oh they've defied all odds and Dad's army has won the elusive flag they've been chasing for 10 years" storyline. Collingwood is also the oldest list now and a lot of people didn't predict them to win it again in '24. I think if you go back to AFL pre-season predictions for 2022 and about 90% of punters would have tipped Melbourne.

Gawn tends to have minimal impact in the wet because his work around stoppage is average and his real value is marking around the ground. I actually think we'd be better with JvR in the ruck again as his follow up work at stoppage is elite and keeping Petty down forward to try and nullify Pearce/Cox. Ultimately, winning next week is far more important in my mind. Freo is going to make the 8 regardless, while GWS is a game we simply have to win to stop them from taking our spot. Rest Gawn for one more week to ensure he's 100% and ready to go against Briggs.

There's no way Turner is being demoted to sub. He's our best set shot for goal at the moment. I'm not sure the coaches think Melksham and Petty can be in the same forward line, but if they do, then I'd say Tholstrup would have to be sub.

The BOM has rain predicted all week in Perth. I’d be going in with almost the same line up. My only query is with Petty, he really struggled against Draper and it was only when JvR went in the ruck that the game turned. Petty got beaten quite a few times against McKay but when he did bring the ball to ground, it usually resulted in a goal for us. A wet game would be glorious for us. Freo are the worst wet weather team in the league, yes worse than us. They can only play an outside game. If we bring it in nice and tight and make it a contested game, they will really struggle.

Terrific win. I’m glad I went to the game in the end even if it was with a Bombers supporter mate. I know we conceded the last 4 but it didn’t really feel like a 7 goal win, more like a 5 goal win so to give up 2 more than that is only a slight disappointment. Oliver, Windsor, Rivers, McVee, Turner, JVR all huge. I thought it was a really even performance. Petty got smashed in the ruck and wasn’t great up forward but I think we need him for next week to occupy Freo’s defence.

If it continues to rain I think we’ll win. Dons playing too much of a dry ball game.

Hope it starts raining on the way to the G. Could be a relatively dry night if not.

No Gawn definitely adds to the unpredictability. A win would be awesome as we’ll only need to go 3-3 to make the 8 from next week.

Sunny morning but I’m really hoping for rain. If it’s a dry game I think we’ll struggle with all their height. Going off last night’s game, it’ll be a game for the smalls to dominate and a ground ball game which we should win comfortably. Dees to have a hot start but Essendon to claw some of it back. Dees by 14pts

I don’t care the fact that Geelong are probably going to play finals again. They’ve been given one of the easiest run homes this season and they had an incredibly easy start to the year. One thing about finishing in the bottom 6 is it usually means you can rebound pretty well the next year with a full pre season, a top draft pick and an easier draw the next year.

See ya in 2025 Pies.

Voss has a side with 2 Coleman medalists and a Brownlow medalist and they’ve done nothing. A couple of stars doesn’t always mean a flag.

Thinking about this more, I think Petty was chosen because of his contested marking ability around the ground. That’s Gawn’s greatest contribution so he’s probably the best candidate. His tap work is overrated I think. I do feel we missed a trick not selecting Tomlinson though. Essendon has a very tall forward line.

Don’t think they could possibly get any taller. Already got 11 players above 190cm listed. They’re surely the tallest team in the AFL Wright Langford Ridley Mckay Jones Caddy Stringer Cox Jones Draper Martin I’m praying for a wet night

He’s gone up a level recently. Kozzie is a special player who is probably just one big final away from becoming the best small forward in the comp. If I had to choose 3 players that I want to play well in a game he’d always make the cut.

Really enjoying these. Looking forward to the next one!

I’d actually bring in Petty and Tomlinson. You can’t replace Max, but you can try and replicate him (á la moneyball). Essendon are the land of the giants. They have 4-5 tall forwards that rotate through in 2MP, Caddy, Langford, Jones and Stringer. Lever on Langford will be a disaster as Langford is a smart footballer who’ll know how to diffuse Lever. I’d bring in Tomlinson to play on Caddy, McDonald on 2MP and May on Langford. This will free up Lever to roam free and help with our intercepts behind the ball. Petty comes in and shares ruck duty with JvR/Turner. Petty’s contested marking is really on the improve. I don’t rate Draper at all. He’s a lazy footballer and very average when he drifts forward. I’m not really worried about his around the ground work. Ins: Tomlinson, Lever Out: Gawn, Woewodin Sub: AmW