After yet another loss by under a goal, since the start of the 2023 season we now have a record of 5 wins and 10 losses from 15 games decided by a goal or less. So if anyone felt like me that we were an incredibly small chance to win late on yesterday against the benchmark team of winning close games, the stats back up that view.

I think it's also interesting to look at the types of wins and losses in those games.

Wins

Adelaide - 2023 - 26 points up at 3/4 time and managed to hold on despite a 7 to 3 goal last term.

Gold Coast - 2023 - 6 points up in the final minute, still managed to concede an inside-50 mark to the opposition who missed.

Collingwood - 2023 - 16 points up in the final minute but conceded two late goals and just held on by 4 points.

North - 2024 - 33 points up at 3/4 time and managed to hold on despite a 5 to 0 goal last term.

Brisbane 2023 - the Melksham goal game, 4 goals down late on and somehow won it

Losses

Carlton 2023 semi final - 6 points up at 3/4 time, Carlton 2023 - level at 3/4 time, GWS 2023 - 4 points down at 3/4 time, Port 2023 - 11 points up at 3/4 time, Port 2024 - 3 points up at 3/4 time, GWS 2024 - 3 points down at 3/4 time, Brisbane 2024 - 15 points up at 3/4 time, Carlton 2024 - 22 points down at 3/4 time, GWS 2025 - 11 points up at 3/4 time, Coll 2025 - 7 points down at 3/4 time

So what does the data show? In our five <6 point wins, we arguably only closed out one game well, being the incredible comeback in 2023 against Brisbane. Against the Crows and Roos we coughed up big 3/4 time leads, while we gave a look-in to the Suns and Pies from winning positions. You could however say we did well to win from being 6 points up against the Pies at 3/4 time.

In our ten <6 point losses, 8 have been games with a <12 point margin at 3/4 time, i.e. games in the balance. The other two games we coughed up a 15 point 3/4 time lead versus Brisbane in 2024 and came from nowhere to almost beat Carlton in 2024.

I think this shows that we have been very, very poor in <6 point games when the margin is close at 3/4 time (i.e tight games with a tight last quarter). 10-5 instead of 5-10 in <6 point games gets us to a prelim in 2023, finals in 2024 and currently top 8 in 2025. We do a lot of things right but games can be decided on fine margins - those fine margins are costing us.

Combine this with our goalkicking woes and it certainly appears as though we have a significant issue with our mentality/composure in key pressure situations to make the right decisions and execute correctly.

Edited June 10Jun 10 by Scoop Junior

1 minute ago, Scoop Junior said:

After yet another loss by under a goal, since the start of the 2023 season we now have a record of 5 wins and 10 losses from 15 games decided by a goal or less. So if anyone felt like me that we were an incredibly small chance to win late on yesterday against the benchmark team of winning close games, the stats back up that view.

I think it's also interesting to look at the types of wins and losses in those games.

Wins

Adelaide - 2023 - 26 points up at 3/4 time and managed to hold on despite a 7 to 3 goal last term.

Gold Coast - 2023 - 6 points up in the final minute, still managed to concede an inside-50 mark to the opposition who missed.

Collingwood - 2023 - 16 points up in the final minute but conceded two late goals and just held on by 4 points.

North - 2024 - 33 points up at 3/4 time and managed to hold on despite a 5 to 0 goal last term.

Brisbane 2023 - the Melksham goal game, 4 goals down late on and somehow won it

Losses

Carlton 2023 semi final - 6 points up at 3/4 time, Carlton 2023 - level at 3/4 time, GWS 2023 - 4 points down at 3/4 time, Port 2023 - 11 points up at 3/4 time, Port 2024 - 3 points up at 3/4 time, GWS 2024 - 3 points down at 3/4 time, Brisbane 2024 - 15 points up at 3/4 time, Carlton 2024 - 22 points down at 3/4 time, GWS 2025 - 11 points up at 3/4 time, Coll 2025 - 7 points down at 3/4 time

So what does the data show? In our five <6 point wins, we arguably only closed out one game well, being the incredible comeback in 2023 against Brisbane. Against the Crows and Roos we coughed up big 3/4 time leads, while we gave a look-in to the Suns and Pies from winning positions. You could however say we did well to win from being 6 points up against the Pies at 3/4 time.

In our ten <6 point losses, 8 have been games with a <12 point margin at 3/4 time, i.e. games in the balance. The other two games we coughed up a 15 point 3/4 time lead versus Brisbane in 2024 and came from nowhere to almost beat Carlton in 2024.

I think this shows that we have been very, very poor in <6 point games when the margin is close at 3/4 time (i.e tight games with a tight last quarter). 10-5 instead of 5-10 in <6 point games gets us to a prelim in 2023, finals in 2024 and currently top 8 in 2025. We do a lot of things right but games can be decided on fine margins - those fine margins are costing us.

Combine this with our goalkicking woes and it certainly appears as though we have a significant issue with our mentality/composure in key pressure situations to make the right decisions and execute correctly.

It's all very simple, we don't kick straight.

It will only be harder to win close games if we can't kick more goals than behinds.

It would be interesting to add to your list our and the oppositions score ratio (goals/behinds).

Yes goal kicking accuracy is a big part of it, no doubt. And it's part of the composure/mentality family along with decision-making in close game.

But goal kicking along is not the only factor.

Look at the way GWS were able to go coast-to-coast with less than 2 minutes remaining in Round 1. Look at some of the poor decisions / execution errors we made in the last 5 minutes yesterday.

And why are the opposition so accurate? As per Collingwood yesterday.

We are the most inaccurate side this year, but our combined opposition's "scores against" is the most accurate when you compare everyone's "scores against"

Just to isolate and cherry pick the close game record of 6 points or less margins, we're 3-9 since the GWS Alice Springs game where Josh Kelly got us with 1-2 mins left on the clock.

But even more disturbingly, and as the OP mentions, 1 of those 2 wins was against North last year where we went scoreless in the last quarter and did everything but blow a 6 goal lead, and it had to take a debutante to lay a game saving tackle.

I had zero confidence we were going to navigate ourselves to a win during that last quarter yesterday.

We have, for the majority, some very poor users of the ball - to the point that you could almost make the argument that the FD don't value good users. Our ball use around the ground and going inside is fifty is abysmal, but I'm hardly bringing anything new to the table here; but it is an issue. Look at the final minutes yesterday and the last quarter:

• Windsor's dump kick to the 50;

• Oliver blazing away OOF;

• Gawn's kick in the D50.

These aren't the only examples, but it allows for the exploitation and retention of possession by the opposition. Couple this with we lack a true forward line / KPF, and these issues become all the more apparent. Neither point is singular, but the trend is due to culmination of these issues, IMO.

It is even more stark in our recent results v Collingwood (excluding the irrelevant Rd24 game last year):

2022 R21 - 7 point loss, +3 scores, +24 CP, +24 I50

2023 KB - 4 point win, +9 scores, +19 CP, +10 I50

2023 QF - 7 point loss, +3 scores, +14 CP, +32 I50

2024 KB - 38 point loss, +2 scores, +13 CP, -3 I50

2025 KB - 1 point loss, +4 scores, +28 CP, +9 I50

We are continually winning the battle but losing the war. Those numbers should suggest regular wins and, at worst, an anomaly loss. Instead there is only one narrow win.

It's incredibly frustrating because we are doing so much right but not the composure piece of the puzzle.