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Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success'?

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1 hour ago, WheeloRatings said:

Pressure act differential isn't a good measure as you're likely to rank low if you have the ball more often than the opposition. Pressure rating differential would be a better measure as it's based on average pressure per disposal. This is what @binman would have been referring to. Unfortunately, I don't have access to pressure rating data, other than Melbourne for the past two seasons.

Thanks for pointing that out.  BTW, good article. But including loose ball gets as a contested possession seems confusing.  In the passage of play shown, if the soccer by Heeney had bounced in front of Clark does it become an CP to Clark rather than UP? 

 
3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Pressure act differential isn't a good measure as you're likely to rank low if you have the ball more often than the opposition. Pressure rating differential would be a better measure as it's based on average pressure per disposal. This is what @binman would have been referring to. Unfortunately, I don't have access to pressure rating data, other than Melbourne for the past two seasons.

Yep, I was referring to pressure rating differential.

I think I heard hoyne say (or perhaps espn footy) last year that it was the strongest correlation to winning.

It was in the context of the pies being an outlier, and when playing their dynamic back half on the first half of last season were unusual because they often had negative pressure rating differential.

The explanation was related to their method- fast ball movement, lots of uncontested possessions ans run in space.

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