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SCRUTINY & RESILIENCE by Whispering Jack

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binman Legend

binman   40,492

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

I think what Binman is referring to is the continued negative assault on Dee’s is verging on hysteria, one negative story after another. Grrrrrrrrrrr..!!

Thanks DZ. 

In was indeed referring to that hysteria - though i was really just taking the opportunity (albeit in an unrelated thread!) to do some more misquoting of Paul Kelly, one of our great chroniclers and poets - and mad football fan (Adelaide unfortunately). 

But on the hysteria front, since our loss to the blues i have had an almost complete football media black out. And i like it. 

Reading the threads on here about various media predictions drives me batty enough, so i'm going to tap out of watching or listening to the footy media this season.

No SEN (apart from some catch up of Phil Davis and the bloke from Champion data on Tuesday nights). Maybe the two ABC footy shows on Sunday. Actually just the first one. 

No Fox 360 or their inane half time 'analysis' (i might not be able to break my last crack addiction).

Maybe some of the usually excellent ABC news.com analytical articles (the authors' names escape me, Dean Bilton is one i think) but no Age or Hun articles.

I'll listen to the ESPN footy podcast, which is usually (bit not always) pretty good. 

And read whelloratings excellent site, and maybe some other similar data driven websites. 

That will do me i think for footy media in 2024.

By the by, speaking of the footy media, one of the issues I have it with it is all so 'feels' based. So few analysts actually analyse, and the opinion heads just have vibe based feels.

So for example, on the discussion about our fortunes in 2024, as far as i have seen no-one has noted that we finished the 2023 season as the number one rated team by Champion Data (combines the ratings for attack - +2.7 and defence - +12.5).

Sure, that is based on data and and data doesn't equal flags. And people seem to hate data.

But it is relevant information to include in any analysis i would have thought. Readers or listeners can choose to ignore or factor it in as they see fit. As a punter i certainly look at the data and factor it into my thinking. 

And, in term of how i assess the 2024 season, the table is not miles off how i think it might play out, including the Giants being a big chance and the Crows also being a contender. 

The Crows are interesting. The key factor in their rating is they were the number one rated attacking team in the AFL (we were 8th) but only #10 for defence (we were #1).

If the Crows sort their defence this season they are definitely contenders and from a punting perspective the 1.81 you can get for them to finish in the top 8 is good value, if that bet was in a bubble (futures bets are never good value). 

This is the top 8 rated teams:

  1. Melbourne         +15.2
  2. Brisbane            +14.9
  3. Collingwood      +14.3
  4. Giants                +14.3
  5. Adelaide            +13.7
  6. Sydney              +9.4
  7. Port Adelaide    +9.2
  8. Carlton              +5.4
Edited by binman
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Lexinator Demon

Lexinator   1,107

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, binman said:

Thanks DZ. 

In was indeed referring to that hysteria - though i was really just taking the opportunity (albeit in an unrelated thread!) to do some more misquoting of Paul Kelly, one of our great chroniclers and poets - and mad football fan (Adelaide unfortunately). 

But on the hysteria front, since our loss to the blues i have had an almost complete football media black out. And i like it. 

Reading the threads on here about various media predictions drives me batty enough, so i'm going to tap out of watching or listening to the footy media this season.

No SEN (apart from some catch up of Phil Davis and the bloke from Champion data on Tuesday nights). Maybe the two ABC footy shows on Sunday. Actually just the first one. 

No Fox 360 or their inane half time 'analysis' (i might not be able to break my last crack addiction).

Maybe some of the usually excellent ABC news.com analytical articles (the authors' names escape me, Dean Bilton is one i think) but no Age or Hun articles.

I'll listen to the ESPN footy podcast, which is usually (bit not always) pretty good. 

And read whelloratings excellent site, and maybe some other similar data driven websites. 

That will do me i think for footy media in 2024.

By the by, speaking of the footy media, one of the issues I have it with it is all so 'feels' based. So few analysts actually analyse, and the opinion heads just have vibe based feels.

So for example, on the discussion about our fortunes in 2024, as far as i have seen no-one has noted that we finished the 2023 season as the number one rated team by Champion Data (combines the ratings for attack - +2.7 and defence - +12.5).

Sure, that is based on data and and data doesn't equal flags. And people seem to hate data.

But it is relevant information to include in any analysis i would have thought. Readers or listeners can choose to ignore or factor it in as they see fit. As a punter i certainly look at the data and factor it into my thinking. 

And, in term of how i assess the 2024 season, the table is not miles off how i think it might play out, including the Giants being a big chance and the Crows also being a contender. 

The Crows are interesting. The key factor in their rating is they were the number one rated attacking team in the AFL (we were 8th) but only #10 for defence (we were #1).

If the Crows sort their defence this season they are definitely contenders and from a punting perspective the 1.81 you can get for them to finish in the top 8 is good value, if that bet was in a bubble (futures bets are never good value). 

This is the top 8 rated teams:

  1. Melbourne         +15.2
  2. Brisbane            +14.9
  3. Collingwood      +14.3
  4. Giants                +14.3
  5. Adelaide            +13.7
  6. Sydney              +9.4
  7. Port Adelaide    +9.2
  8. Carlton              +5.4

I also feel Crows might be the GWS of last year. Quietly been building for a few years now.

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