Free Kick Differential Since 2012

[darkhorse72 1,949]

More important than numbers is where and when the free kicks are that you get or get given against you.  Against us always seem to be in front of their goal...

[Accepting Mediocrity 1,418]

10 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

I'd love to see your calculations sir.

Assuming you have a 50/50 chance of 'winning' the free kick count in any given year all else being equal (conservative estimate as a drawn count is also possible):

Chances of 17 consecutive wins = 0.5^17

=0.00000763, or 1 in 131072 

[Pates 9,697]

10 hours ago, america de cali said:

How bad would have Geelong’s free kick differential been without Duckwood? WC have their well known maggot parasites but their positive differential is Bradmanesque in magnitude and almost 95% better than next best North. Fremantle playing at same ground have one of the worst negative differentials and don’t appear to get any home town favouritism at all so I don’t put too much weight on the crowd effect. Something stinks.

A lot of people talk with disdain about the free kicks Geelong were getting for a while with Duckwood headlining it but WC have been at it for years starting with Phil Matera. He was already tiny compared to most AFL players but he just got the timing right every time to make sure players collected him high, naturally this is a tactic that WC have continued with and perfected. They get the most ridiculous "crowd frees" in Perth.