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MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 21

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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I reckon we're a genuine chance tomorrow. Max, Viney and Watts to play blinders.

 

Anyone going over? My brother and me are heading over and would probably be keen for beers. 

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    On 8/12/2016 at 7:54 AM, Copuchas said:

    I think you'll find that absolute percentage here is not the driver, it is relative percentage compared with Norf.  Furthermore, I think you'll find that it is the points for / points against comparison between the two sides that is the determinant and that currently sits at 138 points in Norf's favour.  It doesn't matter how the gap is bridged in terms of them losing big or us winning big, so long as that net deficit is eliminated.  Perhaps avail yourself of a calculator.....

    How about instead of being so condescending you actually think about someone else's point of view. Extreme scenario's just to prove my point. 

    North's percentage is currently 111.5% at 1760 for and 1578 against. Let's say they lose their next 3 days by 1-0. Their final points and for will be 1760 and 1581 (percentage of 111.3% using my calculator)

    Our percentage is currently 102.6 at 1748 and 1704 against.  Let's say we win our next three games by a total of 135 and the other teams don't score. Our final points for and against will be 1883 and 1704 against. Our final percentage will be 110.5% meaning we lose out on finals. 

    I will admit that 138 is a good indicator but the fact is you were talking about how our percentage would be exactly the same if we bridged that 138 point difference (by saying how they would decide spots), it would only be the same if we had exactly the same amount of points for and points against, or if the ratio was the same (highly unlikely when both teams points for and against are in around 1700). 

    Anyway the point is that while 138 may be the difference, currently North's lower point against will mean that even if we do bridge that gap we might still finish lower. 

     

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    1 hour ago, Deefiant said:

    How about instead of being so condescending you actually think about someone else's point of view. Extreme scenario's just to prove my point. 

    North's percentage is currently 111.5% at 1760 for and 1578 against. Let's say they lose their next 3 days by 1-0. Their final points and for will be 1760 and 1581 (percentage of 111.3% using my calculator)

    Our percentage is currently 102.6 at 1748 and 1704 against.  Let's say we win our next three games by a total of 135 and the other teams don't score. Our final points for and against will be 1883 and 1704 against. Our final percentage will be 110.5% meaning we lose out on finals. 

    I will admit that 138 is a good indicator but the fact is you were talking about how our percentage would be exactly the same if we bridged that 138 point difference (by saying how they would decide spots), it would only be the same if we had exactly the same amount of points for and points against, or if the ratio was the same (highly unlikely when both teams points for and against are in around 1700). 

    Anyway the point is that while 138 may be the difference, currently North's lower point against will mean that even if we do bridge that gap we might still finish lower. 

     

    If we win our last three games with a scoreline of 100 to 80, our final percentage will be 2048/1944 = 105.3%. If North lose their three by the same margin (80 to 100) their final percentage will be 2000/1878 = 106.5%. The final washup will depend on the absolute scores as well as the difference (eg a win by 60 to 40 will increase percentage by more than a 120 to 100 win will), but what this tells me is that we need to win our three games by an aggregate winning margin at least as big as their aggregate losing margin.

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    11 minutes ago, Red and Bluebeard said:

    If we win our last three games with a scoreline of 100 to 80, our final percentage will be 2048/1944 = 105.3%. If North lose their three by the same margin (80 to 100) their final percentage will be 2000/1878 = 106.5%. The final washup will depend on the absolute scores as well as the difference (eg a win by 60 to 40 will increase percentage by more than a 120 to 100 win will), but what this tells me is that we need to win our three games by an aggregate winning margin at least as big as their aggregate losing margin.

    it's looking like hawks might wipe off norf's percentage advantage in one game 

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    1 hour ago, daisycutter said:

    it's looking like hawks might wipe off norf's percentage advantage in one game 

     Not yet it seems --- looks like North turned up after quarter time ...

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