HISTORY TALKS ... by The Oracle

Posted August 12, 201510 yr

History says that Melbourne has no chance whatsoever of beating the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium on Sunday evening.

This is despite the fact that when the two clubs locked horns about 12 weeks ago, the Demons had an emphatic 39 point win.

However, that result came at the end of the Doggies' three game losing streak - their lowest ebb for the year to date - and the landscape has changed dramatically since then. In fact, the Western Bulldogs have rewritten their history in that short space of time.

Today it's unanimous among most pundits that the Dishlickers under Luke Beveridge are the feel good story of the season having recently pushed aside the Tigers from that mantle before sneaking ahead of the Swans to snatch a place in the top four.

There's also the matter of the venue for this meeting. The Westen Bulldogs have a sensational record against Melbourne at Etihad Stadium with eight wins from nine games while the place is a "bogey" ground for the Demons whose only win over the Dogs there was in in round 19, 2007 - a game that marks the historic (or should I say prehistoric?) occasion of their last win at the Docklands.

Since then, Melbourne has been involved in the AFL's biggest venue hoodoo losing 21 games in a row at Etihad. Their last trip there would still be causing them nightmares after conceding a hard fought lead in the last twenty seconds against St. Kilda to go down in embarrassing fashion by 2 points.

What this means is that a Demon win will not only defy history; it will be a major upset and in order to achieve that, it will require a supreme effort from the team leaders and the younger brigade like Jesse Hogan, James Brayshaw and up and comers in Max Gawn and Jack Viney. And even then ...

THE GAME Western Bulldogs v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 16 August 2015 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Western Bulldogs 74 wins Melbourne 85 wins 1 draw

At Etihad Stadium: Western Bulldogs 8 wins Melbourne 6 wins

Last Five Meetings: Western Bulldogs 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins

The Coaches: Beveridge 0 wins Roos 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 @ 3.00pm (live)

Radio - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Western Bulldogs $1.22 to win Melbourne $4.25 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated Western Bulldogs 9.10.64 at the MCG in Round 8, 2015

After a slow start the Demons took control and made a statement to the rest of the football world that they wouldn't be pushed around any more. They led at every change to win by 39 points with key positions Jesse Hogan and Cam Pedersen kicking three goals each.

THE TEAMS

WESTERN BULLDOGS

B: Dale Morris, Michael Talia, Matthew Boyd

HB: Robert Murphy, Joel Hamling, Easton Wood

C: Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Shane Biggs

HF: Luke Dahlhaus, Tory Dickson, Stewart Crameri

F: Lachie Hunter, Jack Redpath, Jake Stringer

FOLL: Tom Campbell, Mitch Wallis, Liam Picken

I/C: Caleb Daniel, Sam Darley, Jarrad Grant, Lin Jong

EMG: Tom Boyd, Daniel Pearce, Josh Prudden

IN: Robert Murphy

OUT: Bailey Dale (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jack Grimes, Angus Brayshaw, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Matt Jones, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince

F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Rohan Bail, James Harmes, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Christian Salem

EMG: Mark Jamar, Aidan Riley, Billy Stretch

IN: Rohan Bail

OUT: Dom Tyson (hamstring)

One of these sides is fighting for a top four spot while the other is firmly entrenched in the bottom six but their immediate fate and the outcome of this game might well be determined by a couple of key forwards who have taken their time to establish places in their respective teams and have had very different pathways into the AFL.

Melbourne's Jesse Hogan was drafted by the Demons as a 17 year old from Western Australia in October 2012 when he was taken as a pre-listed selection in the AFL's mini draft. We had a glimpse of him in the 2013 NAB Cup but he could not play AFL for Melbourne in his first season and he spent the year playing with the Casey Scorpions where he won that club's best and fairest and kicked 39 goals in 15 games. A knee injury late against Bendigo late in the year put a premature end to his season (he missed the VFL finals) but worse was to come when he injured his back in a 2014 pre season game which ruled him out for all but one game with the Casey Scorpions.

He finally made his AFL debut in this year's season opener on 4 April 2015 against the Gold Coast kicking two goals and taking seven marks. His goal tally is now up to 36; he leads the competition in contested marks and is favourite for the AFL Rising Star. He already has a bag of five goals against St. Kilda at Etihad and last week, he booted four goals and was his team's best in their defeat at the hands of North Melbourne.

The Bulldogs' Jack Redpath (194cm, 104kg) from Kyneton was selected with pick 62 in the 2012 Rookie Draft. The tall forward was already 21 years of age when drafted and like Hogan made his preseason debut in the first round of the 2013 NAB Cup. However, he spent two seasons in the VFL with Williamstown and then most of last year with Footscray before making his AFL debut in Round 16 of 2014.

He was the Bulldogs' leading goal kicker in their VFL premiership team and is now beginning to establish himself at full forward ahead of high priced young recruit Tom Boyd from the Giants. His career games total is 10 and he has kicked a modest total of 12 goals but against Port Adelaide last week he kicked four goals.

Although not directly opposed to each other, if one of these power forwards can fire and boot a bag of goals, his team's winning chances will soar.

The same can be said of the ruck duels. The Demon midfield is improving steadily and the Doggies on ball division has also come on in leaps and bounds under the tutelage of coach Luke Beveridge. The ruck is where I expect Melbourne to press home the advantage of an in form 208cm Max Gawn who is one of the top four ruckmen in the competition in terms of hit outs and contested marks and who was an emergency when these teams last met.

Newly re-signed on a three year contract, Gawn has been a revelation since he broke into the side in mid season after a heartbreaking run with injuries. He keeps getting better and if he's on song this week against the Western Bulldogs, we could see Melbourne rewrite some more of its history and break yet another hoodoo in 2015.