2010 SEASON REVIEW

[Demonland 73,140]

2010 SEASON REVIEW + PLAYER/TEAM STATS + PREDICTIONS by Kevin Hawkins (a.k.a. Dee man)

Melbourne's ascendency up the ladder was inevitable. But no one expected it to be this inevitable.

Who would have predicted the Demons would double their premiership points? Who would have predicted they would remain in the finals race until the final three rounds? Who would have predicted they would have three realistic All Australian candidates? And who would have predicted the debt would finally being demolished?

While the eventual ladder placement of 12^th may humble the team's efforts in attaining credibility and respect in the football sphere, so many positives can be drawn from the 2010 season. Brisbane coach Michael Voss hyped the Dees up as the league's next superpower, Rohan Connolly drew parallels with Geelong, while various commentators touted the young Demons as the 'next big thing'. Add those claims to a 73 point demolition of Sydney, two interstate victories, a Queens Birthday draw and extremely narrow losses to Collingwood and the Bulldogs and you couldn't be faulted for thinking the Dees were in premiership contention. Premiership, let alone finals, may be a word coach Dean Bailey chooses to avoid over the coming seasons, but perhaps success isn't such a distant reality after all.

An assessment of Melbourne's best 22 reveals that all the vital ingredients are in place. In James Frawley Melbourne has a strong bodied negator with the capacity to run and create. In Mark Jamar Melbourne has a resilient ruckman that simply refuses to give in. In Aaron Davey Melbourne has a game breaking playmaker with exquisite skills and wicked pace. In Colin Sylvia Melbourne has a roving midfielder with the potential to dominate up forward. In Brad Green and Liam Jurrah Melbourne has two match-winning goal-scorers unafraid to take pack marks or attempt the impossible. Add spoiling superstar Jack Grimes, creative genius Jack Trengove, ball magnet Tom Scully, one percenter maestro Colin Garland, and tackling machine Jordie McKenzie to the experience of Jared Rivers, Cameron Bruce and Brent Moloney and suddenly you have yourself a brigade of fourteen premiership quality players. As for the other eight, I'll get to them later.

The key question is, does Melbourne have the correct recipe? For the first two years of Bailey's tenure critics questioned the coach's seemingly non-existent game plan. The handball happy mindset he instilled in his players compromised the natural games of Bruce and Nathan Jones, both of whom suffered regular holding-the-ball attacks. Bailey's tendency to experiment with player positions meant key forward Lynden Dunn was often picking fights with superiors in the centre square, while promising defender-cum-ruckman Stefan Martin was wasting away at full forward. Furthermore the forward line lacked any form of structure and the midfielders found it impossible to find a way inside 50.

Two years on and some of these holes have yet to be filled. Overuse of the handball continues to see players muck it up at half back, while Melbourne remains 14^th in the league for inside 50s. Furthermore the problems begin in the centre square, where Demon midfielders have too often allowed their opposition's top on-baller rack up countless possessions.

To leave Bailey's game plan at that, however, would be selling the coach short. This season fans have begun to recognise the merits of Bailey's run-and-carry style, in which fast breaks, corridor centric activity and isolated forward lines have produced great results. In the space of a year the Demon game has gone from bland to exciting; from dull to vibrant; from mediocre to… competitive.

There is undoubtedly still fine tuning required. As it stands Melbourne tactically sets up with too much optimism. With loose players in front of the ball, rather than around the contest, Melbourne too often places themselves in a risky predicament, whereby an unsuccessful clearance inevitably lead to an opposition inside 50. The flip side is that a victory from the stoppage enables the team to run free and earn themselves fast flowing goal opportunities. On numerous occasions this plan has worked a charm; even the top teams have seen themselves momentarily outclasses by the Demons' young sprinters. Hence Bailey is left with three options; subtly tweak the plan to cater for skill errors, continue to groom the current team to win more of these 50/50s, or employ a couple more inside players to ensure the hard ball is won.

Regardless of which option is chosen, careful recruitment is still be necessary. A second ruckman to support the intense load of Jamar – who remarkably survived the season despite frequently going solo – is mandatory. Paul Johnson is a class above VFL level, but has too many flaws to be the team's leading man in the event that Jamar goes down. He is certainly worth keeping on the list as depth, but Johnson's weak pack-marking, unreliable tap-work and uncoordinated ground level skills make him a liability in contested situations. Jamar is by no means an angel – his lifted status has evidently had no influence on his inclination to instinctively handpass – but as a big man the Russian has all the desirable characteristics. He is an intimidator in the middle, a potent forward option when rested, and a fearless contested marker. As the football department wait for the raw Max Gawn, the lanky Jack Fitzpatrick and the inaccurate Jake Spencer – should he be granted elevation – to develop into Jamar protogees, a competent backup must be found. Michael Newton – who amassed a solitary hit out in the final round – is evidently not the option.

Some have argued that Melbourne should also chase a powerful full forward to compliment the likes of Green, Jurrah, Dunn, Matthew Bate, Ricky Petterd and Jack Watts. Personally I don't believe such a recruiting move is necessary for the six reasons I have just stated. The firepower of Green (55 goals in '10), Jurrah (41 goals in 17 games), Dunn (22.11 since his Round 12 recall; shadowing his 4.11 from Rounds 1-7), Bate (27 goals in '09), Petterd (31 goals from his last 24 games) and Watts (10 goals and 9 assists in '10) is enough to make any defence nervous, particularly once the likes of Austin Wonaeamirri (32 goals from 26 games), Jamie Bennell (4 goals against Port Adelaide), Colin Sylvia (5 goals against Richmond) and even Aaron Davey (119 goals from his first 4 seasons) are added to the equation. A bulkier Cale Morton is expected to assume a key position in the coming years, while the foreseeable improvement of Watts, Jurrah and Petterd gives supporters even less reason to worry. To top it all off Green – the Best and Fairest favourite and potential All Australian half-forward – is playing the best football of his career. So long as the club doesn't prematurely force him out in the same manner that saw 150 Heroes Adem Yze, Jeff White, Russell Robertson and James McDonald depart in an inglorious fashion, Green should still be going strong come Melbourne's next premiership window.

With Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney severely restricting the talent pool of the upcoming draft Melbourne has the luxury of not making any rash changes to its list. Disregarding the rookies, not too many others beside Brad Miller, Daniel Bell and McDonald – who have already been let go – may have to suffer the chop. McKenzie, stiff not to be nominated for the Rising Star let alone be one of the favourites, will certainly be upgraded to the senior list. Similarly Spencer may gain himself a spot if they club chooses to persist with that project. Unfortunately Danny Hughes – despite his promising AFL performances – will most likely be let go, as will Rhys Healey, John Meesen and one-time hero Newton. What to do on the senior list is a little more difficult ; a number of second-to-third years are still yet to make their mark on the AFL stage.

Addam Maric, despite his apparent talent, looms as the most vulnerable. In his only appearance for the season the fast forward-cum-wingman amassed a handy 16 possessions as the Demons demolished Sydney. Unfortunately for him the captain returned the next week, leaving Maric to wallow in the VFL for the remainder of the year. With opposition clubs unlikely to be interested in an unproven performer from a bottom-eight team Melbourne's best option – should they desire more young talent – is to delist the contracted player and regain his services as a rookie. Ditto Tom McNamara. This enables the club to persist with these promising young players without sacrificing a position on the senior list. If they don't make it little has been lost; if they do make it their relocation to the seniors is easy. Martin may be a similar egg to add to that basket, however given that the big man is struggling to make an impact in the VFL seconds it might be time to bring an end to that experiment.

Despite a struggle for selection Kyle Cheney and Neville Jetta should both hang on to their places, as should James Strauss and Sam Blease. Cheney and Jetta are unlikely to be world-beaters but they are the depth players you'd be reluctant to let go. The latter duo, on the other hand, have endured slow inceptions to the world of AFL, but big wraps follow these kids and the club would be foolish not to be patient with them.

In the brutal competitive realm of the AFL patience is one of the most important virtues a coaching panel can possess. The unprecedented improvement of Frawley and Jamar – unquestionably the club's most important players – has been well documented. Just as important, however, has been the rise of Clint Bartram and Dunn. Both players sat at the crossroads at the commencement of 2010, but are now amongst Melbourne's most experienced and important contributors. Bartram goes unnoticed almost every week and his name is constantly vomited out by distrustful fans during weekly selection conversations, but the former top-5 Rising Star nominee has consistently done the job as a small defender. On the rebound his dash is occasionally let down by poor disposal, but from a defensive perspective he has not suffered many defeats.

Dunn, meanwhile, has finally been settled into a position he belongs. Having mastered the art of tagging under Bailey's questionable apprenticeship Dunn has become a vital cog in the Demon attack, indicated by the late season sacking of Bate. His dual role as a defensive forward and attacking goalscorer is complimented by his fine marking skills and accurate long kicking. Dunn ensures each of his possessions count, but he still needs to find more of the ball. His dismal 4-possesion performance against Hawthorn late in the season corresponded with the beginning of Melbourne's losing streak; a better game from him that day may have kept the Demons in finals contention for another week. I blame it on the moustache.

Patience has also been shown with the more experienced members of the team. At the halfway mark of the season I lamented that Bruce's "disposal has been dismal. Under pressure he is possibly the game's worst decision maker; whenever he gets the ball you can sense the collective fear of all Demon supporters." Eleven weeks on and I am eating my words. Bruce's brilliant second half of the season has placed him in contention for yet another high Bluey placing. Playing a predominantly more attacking role since the mid-season break Bruce has rediscovered the art of kicking and the delights of goalscoring. 6 goals in the last 10 games may not sound like much, but given that Bruce didn't kick a single major for seventeen straight games his return to the scoreboard has been welcome. While the masses were initially pleased with rumours that Gold Coast were chasing him such an outcome would be now a setback given Junior's recent departure.

With the case studies of Frawley, Jamar, Bartram, Dunn and Bruce in mind it is important that faith is shown in Melbourne's next saviour, the one and only Jack Watts. From his 18 senior appearances the blonde key-position player has yet to set the world on fire, but reassuring performances against Port Adelaide (18 disposals, 2 goals), St Kilda (18 disposals and 9 marks), Fremantle (19 disposals and 7 marks), Brisbane (27 disposals) and Richmond (8 last quarter disposals) indicate that he's on the right track. Some critics have been quick to dismiss Watts as a wasted draft pick, but it is important for them to consider the recent breakthrough of comparable players such as Scott Gumbleton (#2 in 2006), Jack Riewoldt (#13 in 2006) Chris Dawes (#28 in 2006) and Jarrad Grant (#5 in 2007), and the slow development of Watts' fellow '08 draftees (Stephen Hill, Daniel Rich and Michael Hurley are the only three top-10 picks thus far to have justified their early selection).

As I discussed earlier Melbourne has at least 14 'premiership-quality' players on their list. Improvement from eight to ten others in 2011 will make the difference between a bottom-eight 'competitor' and a top-eight contender. Bartram, Dunn and Nathan Jones are each one consistent season away from being walk-in regulars. Form and injuries interrupted the seasons of Matthew Warnock, Wonaeamirri, Morton, Petterd and Bate but these guys are simply too good not to be constituents in Melbourne's race for premiership glory. The latter three in particular are capable of best-on-ground performances and shouldn't be on the fringes for too much longer. Meanwhile relative newcomers Joel Macdonald, Rohan Bail and Bennell each enjoyed commendable seasons, but with the likes of Jordan Gysberts, Luke Tapscott, Blease, Strauss and Melbourne's prospective no.12 pick raring to go, they will be amongst the more vulnerable in 2011.

Unlike Neale Daniher before him, Bailey is a fearless coach. Throughout the year he was unafraid to made controversial calls on all of Bail, Bate, Bennell, Dunn, Macdonald, Brad Miller, Morton, Johnson, McKenzie, Warnock, and Wonaeamirri, dropping them at one point or another. Even Jones – who has missed just 4 games since debut – was given the sack at one point, only to earn a reprise as a late inclusion. Each of those individuals could make a claim to being in Melbourne's best 22.

Hence the internal competition will be as fierce as ever in 2011. Mediocrity and laziness will no longer be accepted. Finals are on the agenda and Melbourne will begin to be taken seriously. 'Experts' have proposed that 2013 will be Melbourne's first challenge, but I firmly believe that a top 4 placing is within reach next season and that the premiership window will be open the following year. Call me a naïve idiot, but this season's strong performances against Sydney, Collingwood, the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Hawthorn were no accidents. The debt is gone, the ingredients are prepared and the recipe is ready… so what are we waiting for?

Best and Fairest tip:

1. Brad Green, 2. James Frawley, 3. Mark Jamar, 4. Colin Sylvia, 5. Cameron Bruce, 6. Brent Moloney, 7. Aaron Davey, 8. James McDonald, 9. Tom Scully, 10. Clint Bartram

Coach's Award: Mark Jamar

Best First Year Player: Tom Scully

Leadership Award: Brent Moloney

All Australian tip: Brad Green (HFF), James Frawley (BP)

Best in Brownlow: Colin Sylvia

Team stats

8 wins, 13 losses, 1 draw, 34 points, (Ladder: 12^th)

94.52% (9^th): 1863 For (11^th), 1971 Against (8^th)

36 quarters won (11^th), 38 players used (4^th)

Ranked 1^st in Rebound 50s

Ranked 1^st in One percenters

Ranked 3^rd in Hitouts

Ranked 4^th in Tackles

Ranked 4^th in Handballs

Ranked 4^th in Frees For

Ranked 4^th in Frees Against

Ranked 5^th in Disposals

Ranked 5^th in Uncontested Possesions

Personal leaders

Goals: Brad Green (55 – 6^th in league); Lynden Dunn (26); Liam Jurrah (21); Matthew Bate (19); Colin Sylvia (16)

Disposals: Cameron Bruce (514 – 28^th)

Marks: Brad Green (153 – 6^th)

Kicks: Brad Green (295 – 25^th)

Handballs: Cameron Bruce (304 – 9^th)

Tackles: Jordie McKenzie (128 – 8^th)

Hitouts: Mark Jamar (643 – 2^nd)

Inside 50s: Colin Syliva (87 – 19^th)

Rebound 50s: Colin Garland (141 – 3^rd)

Contested Marks: Mark Jamar (28 – 10^th)

1^st possessions: Brent Moloney (127 – 11^th)

Clearances: Brent Moloney (94 – 19^th)

One percenters: Colin Garland (149 – 6^th)

Supercoach: Cameron Bruce (2149 – 26^th)

Best 22 for Round 1, 2011

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Colin Garland

Half backs Joel Macdonald Jared Rivers Jack Grimes

Centreline Aaron Davey Jordie McKenzie Cameron Bruce

Half forwards Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn Cale Morton

Forwards Ricky Petterd Brad Green Liam Jurrah

Followers Mark Jamar Colin Sylvia Brent Moloney

Interchange Jamie Bennell Nathan Jones Tom Scully Jack Trengove

Emergencies Matthew Warnock Jack Watts Austin Wonaeamirri

Leadership Group, 2011

Brad Green © Cameron Bruce Aaron Davey Jack Grimes Brent Moloney Jared Rivers

FROM DEVIL INSIDE Dee Man's Blog

[jayceebee31 761]

A great summary however I think JW deserves a guernsey.But to whom he replaces???

Edited September 22, 2010 by jayceebee31

[Satan 2,881]

Watts for Bennell , we didnt choose him number 1 as a potential emergency player