Josh

I knew I slept in but was never gonna beat that.

Gotta go to work but start at 6, work through lunch and knock off at 2 I should be laughing.

Can really see another 10 goal win here. I think we are a 5 goal better side than the pies and will turn it on today on the big stage.

Hibberd to have a huge one.

Dee's by 64.

At least Bontempelli isn't in the top 3. How everyone rates him as a gun is beyond me. I'd take nearly every player on the list in front of him.

10 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

What seems clear to me is that we will be trying to minimise positional changes. So someone is going to come in from Casey to play Lever's role. Whether that's Frost or Smith or Wagner or Hunt or someone else, I expect someone to get that role and Harmes to return to his normal role.

 

Listening to Gary Lyon and Roosey on On The Couch they seemed to think Hibberd to play Levers role and depending on opposition foward lines one of frost, Hunt or Smith in.

Makes sense to me.

On 5/28/2018 at 8:23 PM, The Chief said:

During Lever’s interview on SEN this morning, mentioned that Melksham is the standout boxer at the club, and quick to rip his shirt off to expose the rig. 

I live in the same town as the Melksham's and it's a well known fact how well he can box on around here. 

Also worth noting that we let Nathan Jones' brother go, I hope we don't let Jake's little brother go.

The scary part is Reiwoldt had games where he done that on his own. Dead set legend.

18 hours ago, Kumamoto_Ken said:

I spent 8 weeks walking around the Perth CBD for work in 2016. Saw some amazing sights (punchup out the front of the Criterion at 9:30am) and some amazing characters (angry skater man, abusive red hat man, creepy dude in window, pillow head, the East Perth TAB crew near the Carlton).

I was considering writing a book on the experience but may run into some problems at work re publishing...

#perf

 

 

Didn't run into Maddog did you?

Up bright and early and can see Etihad (or whatever it's called now) from our hotel. Wandered down to the Woolshed last night for some over priced craft beer (don't they sell VB in the city anymore) but will go there again today anyway.

I think Bulldogs are about 3 months early as they are going to need an effort of marvel proportions to win this one.

Dee's by 15... Goals.

Jonesey will tear it up.

3 hours ago, DaisyDeeciple said:

@Skuit

Am with you on the contested high scoring stuff, what staggers me, and my question to you, are the fantasy ratings, either version. What stats aren't being weighted properly for impact on a game, in your humble opinion? With the modern style of footy I am going to say kicks and handballs don't mean much anymore. 5 disposals that defeat the defensive set up of an opposition are worth 20+ disposals to a contest. And our presence in AFL fantasy  - 7 players in the top 100, 3 (including smith, easy to get stats in sides winning by 15+goals) in the top 50 and Hogan at 52??? beggars belief, I can't be bothered with fantasy teams anymore because I think the metrics are BS, but I like the idea of selecting a side that would have the most impact and the whole money ball thing. Bailey F for instance has impact (IMHO) with his efforts for almost no visible presence statistically. If you could break down the players that are contributing to the below, I think that would be a fair reflection for fantasy teams.

Also I think the fantasy stuff glorifies individuals, when our team is crushing others by doing the team things, so maybe am being unrealistic to ask for the stats to reflect team acts/roles - i.e. BV did a number on Lynch.

Lastly this is Goodwin's coaching genius 1^st Goal Assists - this is the best demonstration of a team attitude and the hardest thing for an opposition to guard against. I predict looking at the fixture another 5 (minimum) 10 goal wins this year. (might have to look up the stat for most 10 goal wins in a season - we could get there.... 

 

 

I think champion data try and do the best unbiased statistical analysis possible but when Belchambers can have 3 disposals and still score over 100 you have to question how it works

5 minutes ago, Skuit said:

And we're such an outlier when it comes to contested differential - such that 17 teams range from +8.4 (North) down to -9.3 (Lions) while we sit on +19.3 - that I thought I'd take a quick look back through the years. There hasn't been anywhere near such a gap between best and next best this decade, and the closest in absolute terms was the Bulldogs 2016.

Greatest Contested Differential / Closest Competitor (grand-finalists in bold)

2010: Collingwood 11.7 / Geelong 6.7

2011: Collingwood 14.6 / Carlton 13.1

2012: Adelaide 11.6 / Hawthorn 8.1

2013: Bulldogs 12.4 / North 7.8

2014: Fremantle 8.9 / Adelaide 5.8

2015: Fremantle 9.8 / West Coast 9.7

2016: Bulldogs 16.5 / Geelong 14.0  

2017: Collingwood 7.7 / Geelong 7.5 

Considering how far in front we are in all other areas it's amazing we are able to have such a differential. I assume we have the most amount of hit outs and hit outs to advantage, which means half the time we don't get an opportunity to have a contested possession because it's a clean possession.

Where do you get your information?

4 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Played all last year with injuries. The plantar fasciitis was hurting him from the early rounds all the way through to the surgery, and then he came back underdone from that. He wasn't healthy at any stage last season.

Hopefully he can get back to 2016 form and even more. 

He also seems to have the best combination with Gawn, somehow with Harmes the other midfielder who reads Gawn well. 

I always seem to notice Gawn literally putting it down Jones' throat. And then there is Oliver and Brayshaw

4 hours ago, Skuit said:

Could probably just copy & paste one of the responses from the Changes vs Bulldogs thread this week: no changes.

 

But there's no harm in a brief reminder of the following:

 

1^st Contested

 

1^st Contested Differential  

 

1^st Centre Clearances

 

1^st Scoring

 

1^st Inside-50s

 

1^st Marks Inside-50

 

1^st Goal Assists

 

1^st Least Opponent Marks

 

1^st Least Opponent Kicks

 

1^st Least Opponent Inside 50s

 

 

 

The areas where we are still letting ourselves down

 

 

 

2^nd Clearances

 

2^nd Metres Gained

 

2^nd Turnover Differential

 

2^nd Intercept Differential

 

2^nd Goal Accuracy

 

3^rd Contested Marks

 

3^rd Total Tackles

 

Thanks skuit they are some dominant statistics. Is there anything that we are actually struggling with?

I think the top nine played the bottom nine last year after the first round which was very bizarre

Who gives a [censored], let the footy do the talking

(Had a couple Jägers)

Here we go.

If we had of set a bench mark for our last 4 weeks I think 75 goals, 14 quarters won in a row and 3rd on the ladder would have been about the best we could hope for.

To those who say we played easy teams, tell that to Hawthorn and Geelong last week.

These next 3 games are vitally important, and I for one have a good feeling.

Dees by 35 points, McDonald BOG (hedging my bets a little bit there is two of them ?)

4 minutes ago, forever demons said:

frosty?

Mark Winterbottom, V8 supercar driver

Another opportunity to make a move towards finals, we failed our challenges last year, will this be the day we finally stand up and demand to be counted. I think so.

Dee's by 78.

Petracca to tear it apart.

Frosty by the length of the Winton straight.

Down at Winton watching the V8's and tryed to buy a membership. Not sure if it worked or not (having a few breaky beers) 

Thanks to all that make this possible, love the forum, love you guys.

Go the Dee's

Edit: it went through, go the Falcons FROSTY!!!

2 hours ago, SFebey said:

Unfortunately his kicking and decision making are poor, special talent for sure, hope he pulls through. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him at another club next year.

That's crazy, bloke loves it at the Dee's. Came into the side and lit it up at a time we were struggling. I think he strikes me as a very unique individual and this is the first time he has had to deal with a form slump.

Can't wait to see him do what he does best, RUN. Let Lever, Jetta, Lewis and Hibberd worry about defending, you just attack.

7 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

We are actually the No.1 team for contested possessions over the first 7 Rds from what I understand, so I don't think our poorer performances have been so much about lack of intensity or desire as they have been about defensive positioning, system and ball movement.  At times (Richmond and Hawks in particular) we've actually had too many trying to apply the defensive/pressure acts and not enough clear of the contest to make use of or defend the ball movement clear of the congestion.

i think this is a huge problem for us, I have noticed it and a few commentators have as well. They are all trying to hard. I don't know how many times 3 or 4 Melbourne players launch to spoil a high kick inside 50 and the crumbers kick a goal.

No surprise they try harder against better opposition and get exposed more

4 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

"What did you say about my son?"

This competition is over, give that man the $10,000

Hopefully better than his mate Simmons anyway

35 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Hope @Joshis okay - not like him not to kick off the match day thread at 5am or some other ungodly hour that normal people are still asleep!

All good, wife was away last night and the boys stayed asleep. Woke at 4 but amazingly fell back asleep. 

No doubt I won't be able to sleep tonight now.

Hoping Petracca can tear it up and Dee's for an easy win.

19 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

The reliance on Vince and Lewis is surely reaching its sunset? There is no pace left and both have tended to slow our ball progression so far this year. 

I fully agree with this comment but sometimes slowing down is exactly what we need to do, unfortunately both Lewis and Vince have lost top gear which is understandable at their age. Neither will be dropped until Oliver, Trac and co. can sure the maturity required to slow the game down when required IMHO

3 minutes ago, WERRIDEE said:

GO THE MIGHTY DEES BACK ON TRACK

IN: PETRACCA

OUT: ANB

Yeah that seems about right. Can afford to carry the Weed and give him 4-5 games in a row to prove himself now. After all we have carried ANB and Harmed so far this season