Macca

An occasional short step would have been acceptable but Jeff ran past way too many contests (more so in the last year or so) Such a good finisher though and he'd still be with us otherwise. Garlett made the call on himself in a lot of ways ... Goodwin's decision to dispense with the bloke was made easier by Jeff himself. But there are plenty who don't relish the contest when it doesn't look so obvious. But ultimately they still get found out in the same way. Either traded away or delisted. Those who are highly skilled or immensely skilled and therefore highly productive stay in the system.

There are any number of other Hail Mary 'Shots' every season old dee. Even a top 10 pick is a speculative pick as there are any number of high school age kids who just can't make the transition to AFL football. And trading for established talent can often be problematic too in terms of injury (or otherwise) Clark, Lumumba, Lever & May have all had their issues. And that's just our club. Can anyone guarantee that Weideman, Jackson & Pickett won't be busts? Now, I am not at all intimating that any of the 3 are going to be busts but the possibility is definitely there. It's draft them and then hold your breath. By comparison, Bennell is just another (in a long line) speculative pick. I just don't see the big deal (at all)

Including all the rookies, up to 20 players (or more) won't be at the club after the completion of the 2021 season ... so have a look at the complete list and see if you can come up with the 20. Of course, a lot has to play out yet but the numbers don't lie. And it is not really about identifying the 20 ... more so about recognising the actual numbers. It's like the bust rate with drafting ... over 40% for first round picks. In baseball the bust rate is 75% for first round draft picks. In the NFL the bust rate is 40%+ for first round picks and the draftees are 21-22 years old with 4 years of College football behind them. Including the rookies, in one 2 year stretch during the Roos era over 25 players were dispensed with. Why? Because there just isn't the available talent available so therefore the lists need to be constantly churned over. So why be so concerned with the equivalent of 1 rookie spot where the impact on the salary cap is negligible anyway? The usual suspects here are jumping at shadows with their over-the-top comments (or perhaps they have a hidden agenda) The value of 1 spot on the list is overrated anyway ... the real issue is getting to a point where the club has 25 bona-fide AFL standard footballers on the list. Bennell is definitely worth the punt as at least we know the bloke has some untapped talent ... the last 10-12 players on the list are often devoid of real talent ... they are often just making up the numbers. How many top players are in the league in totality? 100? 120? And there are close to 900 players in the system. There are hundreds that fall short every season. And hundreds of not-so-good players are kept on lists because there aren't any decent alternatives.

Tips from the big bookies for Saturday January 25 The big bets for Saturday January 25 All the tips to make your Saturday profitable

A few decent races coming up tonight and over the weekend acting as a bit of a preview to the Autumn Here are some races to look out for - the Australia Stakes is to be run at 9.30pm tonight and the race has attracted a decent field ... 'Hey Doc' & 'Scales of Justice' have drawn the 2 inside gates so the race will be on early. 'Begood Toya Mother' & 'Microphone' should be on the speed as well. Friday Evening - Australia Stakes Sat - Blue Diamond Preview (C & G) Sat - Blue Diamond Preview (F) Sat - John Dillon St. (Caul) Sat - Carrington St. (Rand) Mon - Centenary Vase (Sha Tin) Mon - HK Classic Mile (Sha Tin)

Could go that way as well Dappa ... and being a SB a high scoring game probably isn't a given even though both teams are free-scoring teams. It is a high mark set by Vegas though ... and the bookies rarely lose.

Leaderboard Post Season Tipping Comp 9 - DemonDave, Dee Zephyr 8 - Go the Biff 7 - Macca 6 - JV7 5 - Clintosaurus, Gorgoroth 4 - Dappa Dan 2 - DeeSpencer If you accurately tip the SB Winner you'll receive 3 points ... plus a bonus 2 points if your winning score falls within 3 points of the winning teams actual score. e.g. Dappa Dan puts up a scoreline of KC 34 49ers 31 ... if KC win and their winning score is somewhere between (and including) 31 - 37, then Dappa would pick up a total of 5 points (3 points plus 2 bonus points) So, all those participating can still win (either outright or tie for the win) or finish on the podium. And we could extend the bonus points system for all the rounds of the playoffs next year ... makes putting up the scorelines worthwhile.

Over/under set at 53.5 for the SB ... that might be unders for these 2 free scoring teams. You'd reckon the winning team could easily rack up the numbers ... Ravens aside, the 49ers & KC are the 2 best teams. Both teams are great to watch as well. And credit to Andy Reid (again) ... he just knows how to get his team's into contention. Time management can sometimes be an issue though ? Packers need to turn a good list into a great list ... LaFleur did very well in his first year but he'll need to reshape the team. There is still too much onus on Rodgers as we have weaknesses at RB (depth) WR (depth) and the run defence & pass defence isn't great either. The O-Line is reasonable but we're a ways off from an overall perspective. All in all we did well to make the last 4 ... which is something that 28 other teams didn't achieve. Good luck to the 49ers & KC fans that reside here on this thread. Just getting to the SB is some sort of achievement.

2 scores in it now though Packers will now need the 49ers to make an error or 2 (turnover) to have any sort of chance

As forecast by many (including myself) I only tipped the Packers (here) because I would never pick against my team. I thought we did tremendously well to make the last 4 to be honest. We're not a bad team but we're not that good either. On the other hand the 49ers look the complete package ... barring a miracle comeback by Green Bay the SB match-up looks a beauty.

Titans 17 Chiefs 32 Packers 28 49ers 27

Excellent recap above @DemonDave Leaderboard Post Season Tipping Comp 5 - DemonDave, Dee Zephyr, Macca 4 - JV7, Go the Biff, Dappa Dan 3 - Clintosaurus, Gorgoroth 2 - DeeSpencer This week each game is worth 2 points whilst the SB Winner receives 3 points plus a bonus 2 points if your winning score falls within 3 points of the actual score. And that is for the SB only, not this week KC are -7.5 favourites whilst San Francisco are -6.5 favourites.

Going to real tough at the 49ers next week though. Happy to be in the hunt of course ... we'll have to be at our best to have a chance. Still can't believe the Ravens didn't turn up and Houston threw away that game against KC. And the Titans could go all the way with the way they're playing.

Fairly sure a lot of our good players under Smith were from different parts of the bush but when we were restricted to the Goulburn Valley only (or part of) that all changed. Ironically we did get a few excellent players from that zone later on when the draft was first phased in (notably Lyon, Schwarz, David Williams and 1 or 2 others) And the zones were meant to be switched around every 3 to 5 years but that never happened. From what I've been told we were given the worst possible zones because of the ongoing success that we were having back then. That's probably what Smith was going on about (?) But by hell we dropped away (talent-wise) in a hurry post that great era.

But we have no such excuses in the drafting era (although we did contest the finals 12 years out of 20 from '87)

The zones were a big big factor too although it could be argued we didn't put enough time & effort into our zones (?) The older members would know more about that than I would.

The differences you highlight I don't bother with It's just Supporter-Speak based on human instincts. We'd be the same if we were as successful. Arrogance comes naturally per se. Clubs operate despite what their supporters say or do (primarily)

And the Packers just got lucky there ... not sure that the ball broke the plane (Jones) But you take the good with the bad hey?

In my opinion we've often never had enough real talent and I measure the list against dynasty type teams. Why? Because that is how good you need to be. Our biggest failings has been with recruiting. And I'd argue that recruiting is the most important aspect of a club. Great recruiting = A great list (as long as the coaching and all the rest of it is sound) But it all goes hand in hand so the leadership and expertise from the top needs to be A1 in order to be great at recruiting. Do that and then the wins happen. Hawthorn's strength has been it's recruiting. In the last half century, they've done it better than any other team We were once in the same position under Smith, Cardwell with Ivor as the right hand man to Norm. Back then (from what I've been told & what I've read) our recruiting was supreme.

I prefer to view things as the club will do whatever regardless of how we feel or what we say or do. We'd like to think that we make a difference but really we don't. I have been involved in local sport all my life and that is where one can really make a difference. Just my view of course but the club obviously knows its supporter base wants success ... and they know we're fiercely loyal too. Just like any other fan base I gave the Hawthorn example because I don't believe their supporters are any different to ours ... in the last half century 12 flags versus 0 flags. And considering our lack of success in the half century it's quite amazing to have over 50 thousand members. We are the club's greatest asset. Make no mistake about that. Fitzroy & South Melbourne supporters lost their clubs because of a lack of onfield success (which evemtually effected their supporter numbers) So never beat yourself up about your own support for the club. You and the rest of us are playing our part.

The club should be aiming to win every game Us supporters are mere onlookers ... whatever we say doesn't matter much at all. We may as well be just having these types of conversations in pubs. Amounts to the same thing. We supporters can aim high, low or anywhere in between but we influence very little. Our importance lies with our numbers and our money. But take that away and the club would be losing it's greatest asset (us) Without us there is no club. For the most part, as a member/supporter, I often feel like I make zero difference. e.g. If I'd picked Hawthorn as a youngster I would have witnessed 12 flags. Sliding doors for a lot of us yeah RBG?

We got 10 wins in 2016 but there wasn't a great deal of substance and then 12 wins in 2017 which turned out to be a stepping stone for 2018. Of course, we fell short against Collingwood in that last round in 2017 but the Pies were just starting to click (they made the GF in 2018) They were a better team in 2017 than their ladder position indicated. I remember saying so at the time too. If one could list 13 or 14 of our players who can stay on the park and perform to a very good level 4 out of 5 weeks, then I'd be a lot more buoyant and bullish. But that isn't us, not yet anyway. The best teams often have very few, if any, passengers. Especially the dynasty clubs (in any sport) And it can never be assumed that any club doesn't hit the odd hurdle whilst always trying to build a top list. If we knew the answer on how to add 3 good players every season, we'd be worth our weight in gold. In the last 15 years or so, we've had any number of year's where we've only added 1 or 0 good players to the list. Talent identification and how to get hold of that talent has been our greatest failure. The draft has often been cruel to us and let's face it, that reasoning is why the list has often been substandard. And when we've swapped first rounders for proven talent (notably Lever & May) the bad luck has continued with chronic injuries. We could do with a dose of good fortune for a change. As for what Bartlett and Pert might be saying ... Pres-Speak & CEO-Speak. I don't place a lot of stock with that stuff. It's best to just use your own eyes.

Rebuilding is a constant thing rjay. I'd argue that the hardest time to rebuild is when success happens but there's never a time to sit back. Otherwise failure kicks in. Goodwin (or any coach for that matter) would like 25 - 28 AFL standard players on his list ... say no worse than B. And we are a ways off that level. A long way off in fact. Dynasty's fascinate me but those dynasty clubs in all those sports have one thing in common ... loads of actual talent. Ongoing. But achieve that and you're right in the hunt and if the fine-tuning happens as a constant, you're in the hunt for a long period of time. So I've learnt to be patient with our club ... you have to be. But we're building a better list where as there has been many times when I felt the club sat back way too much. Even with all the interrupted pre seasons and off-season surgeries last year we still should have been able to eke out 8 - 10 wins. We dropped off too far which is concerning. So I'm hoping that we can at least break even for 2020 and to me that will be a real stepping stone. If I gave you 11 wins right now would you be tempted to take it if there was real substance in the 11 wins and as an add-on, real hope for the future? Because that's what I'm hoping 11 wins delivers. And 11 could be 10 or 12 too. It's almost impossible to predict these sorts of things Like your good self, I will have a close eye on our game style and whether the application, energy and a never give up attitude combined with real enthusiasm & motivation is present from week to week. What if we do all that and just miss the finals? My thinking is that we are 2 - 4 good players short from going 'close' to contending. And about 6 - 8 good players short of being a genuine contender.

If those making projections had to pay a price if they got it wrong, I reckon you'd see any number of people taking a far more conservative approach on how we'll fare But there is never any price paid so grandiose predictions abound. Most footy fans are the same. Hope & faith rules ... that's how we're wired. Kinda gives us something to whinge about down the track. Been there, done that. But given how untrustworthy the club is we could win anywhere between 8 -14 games. So all things considered I'll take the middle ground of 11 wins and no finals. I won't be entirely happy with that as it's not my ambition but the club is too mentally weak for my liking The bookies have us as 6 - 4 to make the 8 (which is a bit skinny) and 6 -1 for top 4 (skinny as well) 6 - 4 also means that we've got a better than even money chance of missing the finals (according to the money men) After last year, I reckon deep down many will 'accept' 11 wins albeit begrudgingly contrary to their own ambition for the club. 11 wins can be viewed as a stepping stone too. I see making the finals as a bonus as we'll almost certainly get a few injuries to our better players and we don't have that many proven good players. But 2021 could deliver an entirely different outcome. By the way, we are mere onlookers so everything is in the club's hands. And I'd like to think that my view is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. Beige, boring - yep. Just keeping it real. That's how I see it.

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