binman

Unless it becomes clear we need a third tall at some point in the match, Smith wont play back (IMO). Why would he? Hibbo comes in for turner as a defender so they don't need anyone else to go back. I'm tipping Smith plays on murphy and looks to negate his intercept marking

My first thought was perhaps its about wanting to make the team as fast as possible, but Noble is pretty quick isnt he? McCreery was always going to come in, so someone had to make way. Maybe they figured we would go with tmac and so wanted to go a bit taller in defence? He isn't their best kick, and they really have to minimize their turnovers so that might be a factor. And perhaps he has paid the price for their leaky defence. That said, i'm surprised they selected Markov ahead of Noble.

Tap in birdie

Really great sign, on the back of koz resigning, an Aboriginal player wants to come to the dees. Suggests they have really got the cultural safety stuff right. Compare and contrast to the crows. Their most popular player, tex, gets suspended for racist comments about an Aboriginal player and then there is the whole camp nightmare and a loved figure like Eddie betts leaving the club because it the cl7b is not cultural safe.

My guess: Tmac in. Smith in the starting 22. Laurie on the bench The other possibility i can see is hibberd comes in for turner. Or perhaps Salem given he had not found his best form. That said I really can't see salo not being selected.

What's his kicking like? I wouldn't be bringing in any player the draft or trade period who isn't an elite kick.

This is first class analysis of the four finals games. Some of the best analysis I've heard - clear, makes sense and well articulated. Davis is very impressive. He does the dees game first.

.....Franks?

Nothing could be furter from the truth

Yep, I think smith will be in the 22 and he Tmac and Fritsch will all play forward. And I reckon Smith might go to Murphy and look to negate his intercept marking

Excellent timing by Smithy and his partner - and bubs!

I'll take this: Evening 9/7 12° RealFeel® 8° Occasional rain and drizzle WindWSW 19 km/h Wind Gusts48 km/h Humidity79% Dew Point10° Probability of Precipitation60% Precipitation0.7 mm Rain0.7 mm Cloud Cover76%

Tommy mac is our Snake Baker - a gun forward who comes in to dominate the finals:

No sleep 'till Melbourne!

I guess Jordan wasn't singing a mosified version of this prior to training then: (I don't wanna be in the ones, don't wanna be in the ones, I don't want to be in the ooooones!!!)

Good points Smith is chaos, but is also a good kick for goal.

Sanderson was referring to a pre finals additional heavy loading phase, not the standard mid season loading phase. Which is what selwood was talking about in the comments they referenced (it was a mid season on ground, post match interview). The query about loading was whether the pies poor form was a result of late season loading, not mid season. There is no way sport scientists, for all the reasons Sanderson says he wouldnt do it, be recommending teams do a heavy block of additional (ie on top of game and normal training loads) training loads on the eve of the finals. For one thing the increased risk of sof tissue injury might mean players miss the first week of finals. Like us in 2021 and again this year, the cats at the corresponding point in the season (eve of finals) were humming, running out games and playing their best footy because they got their program right. The pies would have followed a similar program, ie a mid season 6-8 week loading phase, with a taper onto the finals. If it worked they should have been playing their best footy over the last 4 rounds or so (when history shows premiers are playing their best footy). But they haven't been. Like us last year, something has not worked. Like Sanderson says there is no way teams want to be playing with 'heavy legs' going into finals. And that is how they look. With a two week break, the pies will be as fresh as they have been for months. So we can expect them to be at their running best in the first half and first half of the 3rd quarter. Bur if I'm right about their conditioning they will struggle late in quarters and gassed in the last. I really think the pies need to grab a break on us to geat us. If they don't have a 2-3 goal leaf at 3 quarter time they are toast.

Totally agree. In fact, ironically, given all the rubbish about our supposed connection and efficiency issues, his ability to convert and take his chances hasn't really been highlighted as a big loss. It's all been about his ability to negate the oppos best intercept marking defender. And you make a good point. As I've heard melksham say, when it is crowded inside 50, like all forwards he leads to the empty space that is available and that the oppo give- and that's the pockets when it is congested.

No, it's not - though the more skilled kicks we can squeeze into the team the more snaps under pressure (because of the congestion inside 50) will go thru. An irony of our model is against non contenders we smash them for time in forward half, say 60-40 and inside 50s so it is actually harder to be 'efficient' in terms of scores per inside 50 (because of the congestion inside 50). Against the better teams we might only win time in forward half 55-45 and so there is less reentries and less congestion inside 50. And greater efficiency.

I thought that was fascinating too. He hasn't mentioned it on 360 as far I know. Funny to hear him feign ignorance. The damn wall is starting to break. Loading will be fully analysed and discussed in the next couple of years. With the selwood comment he wreferencing selwood's mid season comments last season about their loading in the bye period.

With tmac and Grundy it's an either or, not a both situation

No impact was Hoyne's key reason.

For a whole bunch of reasons, i would say almost certainly not. Brenton Sanderson was asked this question on whateley the Thursday before round 23 (a game they got smashed by the Lions, in large part becuase of all their outs). From 6:14 to 8:33:

I'm not a KISS fan, and agree it is crazy not to book Aaussie bands, but there is one big difference to meatloaf. Meatloaf was very much a has been and decades past being a top seller. I heard Gerard Whately say something similar ie kids won't know who KISS are. But in fact he was just showing out of touch he is. KISS remain huge and continue to find new, young audiences all over the world. They are huge with kids now. People don't but CDs much anymore, but KISS are making a fortune from streaming. On spotify they get over 13 million monthly listeners and their most streamed song is I was made for loving you with over 800 million streams. Those numbers aren't all old foggies reliving their misspent youth. Millions of kids love them. For the same reason they continue to rake in serious coin with touring . Their last major tour was i think 2019. KISS were the only hard rock act in the top 10 grossing tours in the US that year, coming in at number 7, grossing more that $80 mill US 2019 Top 10 North American Tours 1. The Rolling Stones ($177.8M gross; 784,652 tickets sold) 2. Elton John ($157.4M gross; 1,155,510 tickets sold) 3. Bob Seger & the Silver Bullet Band ($97.0M gross;, 867,925 tickets sold) 4. Pink ($87.9M gross; 624,419 tickets sold) 5. Ariana Grande ($82.6M gross; 700,053 tickets sold) 6. Jonas Brothers ($81.7M gross; 769,310 tickets sold) 7. KISS ($81.6 M gross; 800,302 tickets sold) 8. Fleetwood Mac ($77.5M gross; 544,286 tickets sold) 9. Garth Brooks ($76.1M gross; 856,000 tickets sold) 10. Justin Timberlake ($75.6M gross; 568,449 tickets sold) On top of all of that they continue to make millions annually from merchandise (having more than a billion dollars in merch sales over their career). They aint no meatloaf.

Some random reflections on above: Oppo watch The Pies high ranking in points per I50s is reflection of their method - really fast transition from the back half disrupts their opponents ability to get their zone set and creates space inside 50, leading lanes for their forwards and more one on ones and therefore 'efficiency' inside 50 When on, the Pies also run in waves and get players ahead of the ball and create free options inside 50 - again this supports high conversion of inside 50s to scores Conversely our low ranking for points per I50s is reflection of a key element of our method - win time in forward half, and when we cant trap it inside 50 or score set up a wall, win it back and a get a reentry When we do we are invariably kicking into a super congested forward area with 30 plus player squeezed inside 50 and therefore we are not as 'efficient' It's huge worry for the pies that their ability to get inside 50 and stopping oppos score once in inside 50 has fallen away so dramatically in the last 5 weeks - same goes for the CP numbers In fact their drop off is really clear in the table - compare their season ranking to their ranking for the last 5 games - in all but one stat (points scored inside 50) they really fall away - we drop a bit too, but not by much and improve our i50 ranking The Pies numbers form the last 5 games are hugely inflated by their win over the bombers, in particular their scores per inside 50 - that was just a ridiculous low pressure game and the bombers were hopeless in terms of their defensive running allowing the Pies just to waltz it down the ground at will Take that game out and their numbers are even more alarming Keys to the game Contest and deefence have bene the buzz words of late in terms describing our game and you've nailed that with the the key stats i'd add it is critical we win the inside 50 diff, time in forward half and scores from turnover differential metrics I reckon you've nailed it DD on what i consider to the the critical factor - we are running out games better. it is just so easy to see and so different to where we were at last year - and the problem for the pies is that there is simply no way to turn that around at this point in the season. The fitness levels are the fitness levels The fitness issue is key in any game, but particularly in this one as the Pies optimal game plan is but on super fitness levels and their winning run built on being 'stronger for longer' than their opponents - but they have lost that relative advantage completely, partic over us The other data that supper the theory we are really fit and close to our optimal shape is our pressure numbers in the last quarters have remained high - for example we had close to season high rating of 214 in the last quarter against the blues I don't know where the pies sit on that front, but i'll bet London to a brisk that in the last 6 weeks their pressure ratings falls away late in quarters and in the last quarter The last theirs of the Pies season looks so similar to ours last year - injuries to key players (and i'll bey we hear post season about players carrying injuries), struggling to run out games and the method looking diff On the method looking different an example is that rather than control the tempo early doors, we looked to jump the oppo last year and go out really hard and then hang on. When playing their best footy the Pies dominate the first and last quarters, which isn't happening atm The other similarity is how tough their run has been with so many taxing games late in the season And interestingly we both had big wins in the last game of the season - us against the Lions and the Pies over the Bombers I hoped against hope the Lions win was a sign we were back to our best fitness wise, but it was a mirage as we completely ran out of puff in the last quarters of both finals And in hindsight the signs were there - we scored 13 first half goals , but could only manage 5 in the second half I'm sure the Pies fans are hoping their dominant win over the bombers is a sign they are up and running, but the score line is eerily similar to ours against the lions In that game the Pies blitzed in the first half, scoring 12 goals but could only manage 4 goals in the second half