binman

Yep. Our round 15 clash against them will be interesting.

Again, no one is linking ALL form to training loads. But i honestly cant understand how you can accept we are loading, but not accept, despite the evidence (eg our form slump this year and last year, and the obvious fatigue) that doing so is almost certainly going to negatively impact our form, and therefore our chances of winning. Loading fatigues players. That is undeniable fact. Fatigue, in any sport, negatively impacts skill execution and decision making and exacerbates any issues (ability to play a role, cohesiveness, injuries, illness etc etc) a team or individual might be battling with. It is harder to win when fatigued. I tried to bump this thread, but im not sure why i can't see it on my home page. But it is worth scanning because the questions now being asked about our from slump were all being asked last season (the date the thread began and ended is interesting, and suggests we have a few more weeks of sub optimal performance to endure - buckle up).

I simply do not understand how you could argue this is the case. There has been any number of posts from people saying loading happens - this year and last year (and exaclth the same pont in the season). I have not read ANY comments that even remotely supports the idea that loading discussion inevitably comes with a 'relax we've got this' attitude. Can you provide an example?

Not trying to be facetious here, but what will time tell you? Your mind appears made up on the matter. You seemingly haven't been convinced by the evidence or arguments about loading. What on field evidence would change that view? Nor does the fact that noone who poo poos the idea of loading seems to have provided a convincing counter argument for why we, the fittest side in the AFL, suddenly look so obviously lethargic and fatigued at exactly the same point as last year. If, from round 17 or 18 we suddenly look super great, are running out games better than the opposition, playing great footy and winning, will you take that as evidence we loaded? I doubt it You might argue we fixed the issues that caused the form slump and maybe put the very evident mid season fatigue down to it being a long season and they just lost focus. And if we never get back to our best you might say, see its not loading, we're just rubbish, or perhaps say something like, well if we were loading it clearly didn’t work.

Which is EXACTLY what happened last year. As I posted earlier in this thread we played the pies on Queen' birthday, were flat as a pancake, could only manage 63 points and conceded 25 scoring shots (80 points) against the most dour offence in the afl in 2021. And lost. Then we had our bye in round 14. We scrapped over the line against the bombers, only scoring 68 points, in round 15 and got rolled by the giants in round 16 (only scoring 55 points). We beat Port in round 17 by 5 odd goals, after which maxy was asked about the turn around and mentioned the impact of a big black of training in the previous weeks.

The post from -Coach- doesn’t sway you Bing?

A very commendable philosophy. Unfortunately, in this post truth age, it is a philosophy that an increasing number of people wholly reject.

Insert drop the mic gif here.

The dees were ahead of our time. We loaded for two decades in the 70s and 80s, tapered in the 90s, noughties and right up to round 16 last year And won the flag in 2021.

I will edit my comments to say a minimum 9 days. It doesn't change the substance of my argument.

No one is saying loading is the only reason for our form slump. Of course there are other factors. Regardless of the cause, we were clearly more fatigued against freo and the swans, as evidenced by being run over by by both teams in the second half. Something that simply did not happen in rounds 1 to 10 last year and this year, or from round 18 last year. Our game plan does not work with the level of fatigue we saw on Saturday night. But come the pointy end of the season, fatigue won't be an issue. You only need to remember how well we ran out games from round 18 last year (not one team, including other top 4 sides, could go with us in second halves - we were far the fittest side) to get a sense of how things will turn. And it is not an excuse for the losses. It is a factor to help explain our sub optimal performance.

And thst us exactly why they use the bye period. Makes perfect sense. It is at the half way point if the home and away season. And it is the one opportunity where all of the best 22 players cam get a minimum nine day break from playing, so recovery from the game does not have to be factored into and they go extra hard in the first week knowing they don't have a game to worry about.

Nup, we were definitely loading at the same point ladt year. Yes, we rolled the lions in round 12, but were flat, down by 4 goals at half time and only won because we were unusually aggressive with our ball movement (much more corridor use than normal). And perhaps the lions were loading and ran out of gas We then played the pies on Queen' birthday, were flat as a pancake, could only manage 63 points and conceded 25 scoring shots (80 points) against the most dour offence in the afl in 2021. And lost. Then we had our bye in round 14. We scrapped over the line against the bombers, only scoring 68 points, in round 15 and got rolled by the giants in round 16 (only scoring 55 points). We beat Port in round 17 by 5 odd goals, after which maxy was asked about the turn around and mentioned the impact of a big black of training in the previous weeks.

It is also a factor (not the only one obviously, talent being thesin one) why so many teams who finish 5-8 hit the wall in finals and if they make it through the first week (when they play teams with similar preparations) get smashed the following week, like esendon ladt year, who were level at half time before completed running out of gas in the second half and barely scoring).

Bumping this thread as it interesting to read how many of the same issues were occurring from June through end of July last year. For example Watson11 notes in that thread, our scores from turnovers (as he notes, scores from turnovers fundamental of our game) fell off a cliff in thta perid last year, just as they did against the Swans Other examples include, trouble scoring, sudden very stodgy and slow ball movement, fumbles, our stars output dropping and Jackson falling away. Regardless of what you think the causes are for those issues, the important take away is that the last post in a thread about our slump in form was 1 August 2021. The same day we clicked into gear, destroyed the suns by over 100 points, smashed every team after that on our way to our first premiership in 57 years. There wasn't much talk about form slumps after that last post.

That's a somewhat disingenuous use of quotes (ie the bit you highlighted in your post i have quoted above) The full context was: 'A coach or player coming out and saying they are loading? Well that's not going to happen.' But, in any case i've tapped out of the discussion. Happy for you to reject my theory. (but if i was going to point you to a footballer who says loading happens, i'd recommended you chase up the clip of Jack Riewoldt on AFL 360 from i think 2019 or 2020, who is directly asked about loading and all but confirms they always loaded mid season. Which explains why they had a mid season slump in form in each of their three premiership years. Well it does for me - others might think it is just a weird coincidence) (I'd also add that your 'Seasonal Training-Load Quantification in Elite English Premier League Soccer Players' example is not particularly relevant for this discussion. They don't have a grand final in the EPL- unlike the AFL every game is a must win and as such there is no need to peak for one game at season's end. Though I'd bet my bottom dollar that the big clubs in contention for tbe UEFA Champions league title, the most covered in world soccer outside the world cup use loading to get their best 11 cherry ripe for the final)

After these final four comments, I'm tapping out of the loading discussion, because i'm probably coming across as some crazy loading proselyting zealot. I'm happy to stick with my theory, and happy for others to have theirs of course. The first comment is to reinforce that i am not looking to make excuses for the poor performance of the team, rather looking to identify the reason for the drop off. We all know the symptoms (fumbles, poor decision making, hard to score, easy to score against etc etc) and i think my theory is the most logical explanation to help explain those symptoms. The second comment relates to the first - loading is not the only reason for our poor performance. LH listed a number of excellent factors that contributed to our poor performance in the last two weeks. I would say that fatigue related to additional training loads would exacerbate all of them. My final comment is a thought experiment. Lets imagine Australia's best 800 metre runner, Peter Bol was preparing to run in the Olympic 800 metre final on the last day of September, so of course wants to be at his absolute cherry ripe best on that date. And then lets imagine he has the first race of his European running season in late March. As someone who makes his living from professional running, Peter is desperate to win that race and earn the ranking points and the cash prizes. So of course, he has done a huge block of preseason training to be cherry ripe for the first race of the season to maximize his chance of winning that race. It is not feasible, however, for him to remain at that level for six months. To be cherry ripe for the 800 metre final on the last day of September, Peter is going to have stop racing at some point and do another heavy block of training, and then taper so he is both fresh and at the optimal fitness level, come grand final day. All that is accepted wisdom. It is uncontested the AFL is one of the most aerobically challenging football codes. The average player runs anywhere between 12 to 20 kilometers per game, which is incredible really. The training and athleticism required to achieve those sort of distances for 6 months in competition is comparable, i would have thought, to that of elite, world class runners. Given, that, and the fact that AFL football teams have performance management programs and experts the equal of any in the world (if not in resources certainly in output) why would AFL clubs NOT replicate what is accepted practice (based on decades of research and experience) in analogous sports (eg running, swimming) requiring equivalent fitness levels and the need to peak at the start of the season and again for their grand final? My last comment is that these exact same discussions were being had on DL at this point last season. We looked fatigued then and played sub optimally until round 18 (1 August 2021) when we got going and pulverized the Suns with our swarm. We maintained that level until the very last minute of the GF. My expectation is that, injuries notwithstanding, our 2022 season will follow a similar trajectory.

I agree. I was surprised he didn't go back o the wing when Salo came back in. Hopefully Rivers gets back to his best form and can come back in and as you say gus goes back to his win role.

What evidence do you want? A coach or player coming out and saying they are loading? Well that's not going to happen. The evidence is right there in front of our eyes, and for the second straight season, at the same stage - uncharacteristic fumbles and poor decision making opposition suddenly able to move the ball quickly through the corridor trouble shouting down switches and therefore trouble stopping oppo transition out of our forward half clearly fatigued players less 'swarm' and multiple players running in waves, an inability to create goals with swarm and run, opposition having too many one on ones in their forward half uncharacteristically giving up contested marks, etc etc What is your explanation for the totality of those issues?

They did so on the back of their smart, quick and incisive ball movement. Which we couldn't stop becuase we re not spreading as hard as we do when cherry ripe. We score the same way way, albeit with less precision ball movement and more swarm, and when on also create one on ones and lots of free players inside our 50.

You don't have a bye in July/August to enable an all team two week (sometimes longer) break from playing a game of football and recover from being smashed on the track. And teams don't want to be playing sub optimal football in August, one month out from finals. That is exactly when we started to get rolling last year - round 12 last year was 1 August, and coming off a draw against the Hawks and a loss to the dogs (games we still looked flat in) we thrashed the Suns by close to 100 and never looked back. You asked why other teams are not flagging ATM, and i noted the Freo lost two in a row prior to playing us and Brisbane had been flat in the last few weeks. (perhaps Freo did a block of hard training in that period and freshened up to be ready for the dees and the lions - would make sense and in both games they were clearly running better and, after being behind in the first quarters, were noticeably stronger than us or the lions in the second half of both games) Well, now the Lions, who were favourite to beat Freo (even though it was in Perth) and are second fav for the flag, have lost 2 of their last 3 games - and the win was a lucky one against the Suns having been 5 goals down in the first quarter. Feels like a wobble to me. The Lions play the Saints this week at home. They are big favorites, but if they lose, it will 3 losses from 4 games. The last thing i will say about about loading is that our contested ball and tackle numbers have been fine. Our all team pressure numbers haven't. It seems to me that the obvious issue is we are not spreading and defensively running has hard as were in the first say 9 rounds, or certainly when we were cherry ripe come finals last years. We are also suddenly more fumbly and making poor decisions - again juts as happened at this exact point in the season last year. Why is the question. Perhaps COVID has had an impact, perhaps the flu, maybe injury is biting. But i haven't heard or read a convincing argument why so many players running has dropped off at the one point - just as it did at the exact same point last year. I don't buy that other teams have worked us out (though teams are playing smarter - less dump kicks into our D 50 for example), or our model is flawed, or the players are a bit complacent or that we are coming back to the pack etc etc. If people want to think that the problem is one of, a combination of, or all of these issues that's up to them But i'm sticking with my theory. Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one. And to be clear my answer isn't an excuse - it is a reason. And i reckon people should get prepared for some more losses in the next few games - and training loads will be part of the reason for the losses. I think we will struggle against the Pies, but they play a territory game like us and don't have the same ability to chain up possessions and stretch our defence web as Freo and the Swans. So i predict a low scoring arm wrestle that we just prevail in.

Freo lost to the pies and the port in the two games before us. Loading happens. But of course some teams will be impacted mote than others. For example the tigers in their pomp and the current dees unit, rely on hugely taxing all team defence for both their defence AND offence (eg scores from turnovers, which by the by we scored zip from yesterday) to work optimally. So it stands to reason both teams would be impacted by fatigue, more than say the lions, given their game plan is not so reliant on all team gut running Occam's razor.

I should have said every team who is going to make finals do load. Those out of contention, or on the bubble, can't afford to lose games they would otherwise won if not for fatigue. Other contenders do struggle at this exact point in tbe season. As an example, in the last two weeks, Brisbane, the second favourite for the flag were beaten by the hawks and almost got rolled by the giants. Geelong, a perennial contender, famously struggle after the bye. The tigers hit a flat spot in each of their premiership years, just as we did last year.

I said last year at this point of the season that the footy world seems to have collective amnesia, in that every season we reset and forget what had happened in previous years. Teams have been loading for years. It is standard football practice. You could write a thesis on why it is people want to ignore that fact. The thesis would have a chapter on why current players and coaches reflexively deny loading happens (it is apparently a great evil to offer up any reason for poor performance, lest you be accused of the greatest sin - making excuses). And another chapter on why ex player who know loading happens don't talk about it. Everyone could save some time and repost all the comments about our fumbles, lethargy, forward line connection, we are just not that good, fans getting ahead of themselves etc etc from this stage last year.

Ni doubt in my mind we are loading. Why? Because, one, you can see they are not covering the ground, are unusually fumbly and in the last two weeks are shaged at the end of quaters and the whole second half. And two, this is exactly what happened last year at exactly the same point in the year, including our sudden inability to score and stop the opposition marking the ball. I won't be surprised if we lose next week too.