binman

Mmm, interesting. I'm no psychologist, but classic signs here of one of the more pernicious mental health conditions - curmudgeonitis (commonly referred to as killjoy or wet blanket syndrome). Men over 55 are most at risk of what can be a very debilitating condition, one that is often very hard on friends and family. Education is important in our efforts to battle this scourge. Early diagnosis is the key. # curmudgeonitis is no laughing matter

I wonder if tom's experience was a factor. Big game. Important game. With mcvee debuting, adding a second gamer to the mix would make the back six pretty inexperienced.

Agree that he can go to another level if kicks more goals. Great signs on that front in the praccy matches. Hit some beautiful kicks too But goals are not his kpi Again it is important to look past the old school stats. I'm pretty sure nibbler was top 5 in score involvements last season and was probably top 3 in both score involvements and goal assists across the 2 praccy matchs We score a lot of our goals from the back half on transition. Nibbler is involved in a huge percentage of those scoring chains That's to say HE DOES create scoreboard pressure. Any goals he might kick are a bonus.

Fitness levels at the end? Both teams seemed spent in that last quarter. Plenty of fatigue related mistakes

Just texted almost exactly the same comments to a mate!

Recently listened to that podcast Tom talks about Nibblers (and Spargos) role - a role he calls high half forward. The context for the comments was how much footy had changed in terms of the aerobic demands and the incredible amount of running every player now has to do (eg defensive running, closing space, zoning off etc) (In relation to resting key forwards on the bench Tom says 'the running you gotta do now to get back up the ground defensively, you just want a break, you actually need a rest every quarter.....the high speed repeat running is so bad you can't do it with the intensity without a rest') Of what he calls the high half forward role, Tom says this (from 46.48 - my emphasis): 'The hardest role is the high half forward role, for us it's Alex Neal Bullen and Charlie Spargo. Their running is insane compared to everyone else. So, we measure distance, but then we have this metric called high speed, which is sort of like a fast stride and there's sprint which is above 25, 26 ks, which is flat out. But those boys have most of the game in the high speed band - like over 3ks a game in that striding distance, and it's the hardest position by far because every time there's a turnover they're expected to get back up, in line with the ball to defend and then they have to get out the back on offence - their role sucks' Let's assume Tom McDonald knows what he is talking about. He reckons Nibbler's (and Spargos) role is, by far, the hardest position and their running is insane compared to everyone else. It is logical then that only some players are capable of playing that role. For example Tracc couldn't - he doesn't cover the ground well enough and is a power, not endurance athlete. So, a very specialized, specific role. One that is therefore very hard to fill (as opposed to say a utility or mid role) What player not currently in the best 22 has the tank, athleticism and running power to play Nibbler's role (not to mention the discipline and work ethic)?

It seems as if you are using the term role players as pejorative, as in 'he is just role player'. Peripheral. But to be honest it suggests to me, like many dees fans, you don't understand Nibbler's role or fully appreciate his importance to our team. All players at the demons have a specific role. Nibbler is a critical piece of the puzzle in terms of our game plan and how we play. A few years back fans were slow to pick up the importance of the wing position in footy from a game plan and structural perspective. Or understand that it was a distinct role. Now people get it - and understand it takes a particular skill set - and mind set - to be a top winger. We have drafted in hunter specifically because he can play that role. Every dees fan can conceptualise what the hunter's role will look like. Like the wing position, nibbler plays a critical, defined role that is more than the sum of its parts. But unlike the wing role, nibbler's specific role is really hard to understand just from watching the game. It seems to me players assigned specific roles, like spargo and nibbler, are often unfairly maligned. And I think one reason is because their role is often not understood, and what they do is often hard to measure - particularly when the old 'how many times did he touch the pill', or other old school stat metrics are applied. Back in the 80s, 90s and early 2000s, a tagger was probably the only regular designated role player. The tagger was was oft derided, and never a star but it was easy for fans to work out, one, what their role was and two did they perform it well. If their star opponent had fewer possessions and less impact than usual, then job done. It is much harder to assess modern role player's performances. For example by what criteria do fans assess nibblers performance week in, week out. For example, we wouldn't know that a kpi for nibbler is how often he enables tracc to push forward and take up an aggressive, offensive post clearance position (which is a BIG part of our strategy to generate scoring chains) if it didn't come up in an interview tracc did last year. I completely reject the notion that Nibbler's result in the the bluey was somehow a function of durability, or that it because the coaches 'love' him. I think that is disrespectful to nibbler. And to coaches too for that matter. The result is an indication that he played the role he was assigned to a very high level. Perhaps the key asset a gun role player needs, has always needed, is unwavering discipline. Discipline to not diverge from the assigned role and plan. No chasing possessions, or scoring opportunities to appease the critics. In nibbler's case discipline to also run himself into the ground - every single week. On that point, it is worth noting nibbler has been playing much the same role for at least three full seasons now. And has barely been out of ones on that time. It's a bloody hard role - how long would it take, say Chandler, to learn how to play it to anywhere near nibbler's level? If a player doesn't have the same, or greater, endurance as nibbler, he can't play the role. Period. Above all, it's nibblers incredible endurance - and as I noted, discipline to push himself to his limits all game, every game - that, one enables him to play his critical role, and two do it to the level he does. The key challenge for any player that was to come in for nibbler is that they have to be elite level endurance athletes, and runners (ie not a power athlete). By his third season of AFL nibbler already ran further per game than any other player in the team. By some margin. He was only 21 that year (2017). Super fit and athletic then - he has only got fitter and a better runner since The only comparable athletes in the team in terms of running ability and aerobic capacity is langdon, and perhaps now Grundy and hunter (though Oliver looks like he is an amazing shape - and his physique looks more like 800 metres runner than it had previously). Howes looks a potential great athlete - he has the right physique. But I suspect he has a fair bit of work to do to build his tank to get to even nibblers 2017 level. I thought Rosman might be a show, with his elite running background (though probably too big) Jordon is the other one, he could get fit enough, but he isn't quick enough and will never cover the ground as fast as nibbler (which is key for his role).

Depwnds what you mean bt best. Nibbler is one of our most important players. So for me he is on of our best. A top 10 finish in last year's bluey speaks to that. Of course Oliver is harder to replace in terms of pure abilty. But that is because Oliver is one of the best mids of the modern era. But Oliver is easier to replace in terms of role than nibbler. We have any number of players who could replace his midfield minutes - either collectively or one player. As I noted, there isn't one player in the twos who could adequately cover nibbler's role. They would likely have to shuffle some roles within the team to cover what nibbler brings.

AFL 2023 — each team's predicted finish and their key question for the season

Great post. And we saw in the Saints and Tigers praccy matches how significant, for many of the reasons you note above, hunter's recruitment will be.

ANB is not on the 'periphary'. Critical player for us who does not have a like for like replacement in the twos. Our game plan relies on out numbering the oppo at contests. Nibbler is a critical part of our ability to do so. Outside of Langdon and Hunter, no demon player has nibbler's combination of athleticism, ability to cover the ground at pace, elite endurance and discipline. Howe might get there, but aint there yet. No one else in the twos comes close.

Very few clubs will go into round one without missing one, or more of their best 22. Of the potential/likely finalists: The dogs have weightman out. The blues have Walsh out The lions have Zorko and Gardiner out Hawkins and Duncan are probable outs for the cats (and menagola is def out), Toby Bedford is out with a serious hammy for the giants (who probably aren't a likely finalists i guess). The tigers will be missing soldo and tarrant (and have 6 non best 22 locks unavailable) And the swans will be missing three best 22 plsyers in Hickey, Clarke and Fox. I'm pretty sure most, perhaps all, of the players noted above were injured during preseason (as opposed to a carry over injury from the 2022 season). [censored] happens. Particularly given, as Voss noted on 360 the other night, preseason training now involves match simulations and game like drills from the get go. For example, we apparently basically play a scratch match every week.

We train with incredible intensity. Tracc said in a presser this week (the context was a question about playing hurt in the finals) that our training sessions are harder than the games. Injury is an obvious risk of our approach to training and preparation.

Pretty considered comments really. I thought this was as an excellent summary of our game plan in a nutshell: 'They worked so hard to gut run and outnumber the Tigers on the weekend. They created overlap and had multiple options moving the ball forward for large parts of the game.' And this comment was also perceptive: watched the Demons play the Tigers in the practice match. Their ball movement was incredibly slick; they were humming like a well-oiled machine. They didn't even seem to have any of the normal early-season rust. That's what scares me more than any of their individual players

Weightman not playing is arguably a bigger out for them than may is for us, particularly given their other small forward crumbing option, Arthur Jones, is also out (though given he is yet to debut he is not a huge out). Even with may out, their tall forwards are not going to clunk many marks inside 50. The keys for them, if they can't mark it inside 50, will be ensuring oppo defenders don't intercept mark and winning inside 50 ground balls. Weightman is critical for them in terms of winning inside 50 ground balls. It will be super important we win most of those inside 50 ground balls - one to prevent them from scoring and two to bounce from defence and set up offensive transitions and scoring chains. If we win most of these contests, we will win. McVee, Bowser, Rivers and Gus (and players like Nibbler and Spargo pushing back) will all have key roles in terms of winning contested ball inside 50 and being the first links in the chain out of our back half.

Spot on. I wish the media would get off the stupid topic of crowd size. They are just a shill for the AFL on that front. The world has changed since COVID - there will still be some mega crowds for specific matches, but as a generalization the numbers will never go back to what they were pre covid. One, people have got used to watching footy at home. And some people have perhaps come to the conclusion that, all things considered, it is a better experience. No hassles with bar codes, no ridiculously packed trains on the way home (with zero masks and plenty of yahoos), no 'game day' experience (eg blaring music and ads at EVERY SINGLE break in play) to suffer through. No insufferable oppo fans. And no shelling out $10 for flat mid strength beer in a plastic cup. But above all, as you note jnr it, it is expensive for a family to go to the footy. With inflation and high interest rates, going to the footy is a discretionary spend. And many simply can't afford it.

Turner to Darcy or hugle Hagen. Neither are super strong

Expensive switch

Great interview Andy. Pretty cool dude. He said fellas a few time - was he referring to you AND your posting name (aka Demonland)

I agree. Healy is great mates with Jonesy by all accounts (they surf together), so perhaps that is a factor.

Thats coz before the game each dees player did 100 200s as a warm up on the athletic track next door (jokes)

Agree. The other positive is fans could see firsthand the more aggressive ball movement, in particular heaps more kicks to the corridor (and to the top of the goal square) that had been flagged by the club. Creates excitement and energy ahead of the season - as does things like Kozzie playing in the middle and Mcvees' selection. And we all got to see how impactful Hunter, and to a lesser extent Grundy, will be. On Hunter i'm struggling to think of trade that so seamlessly fits into our system and will improve us so much from the get-go. I mean May was obviously a good in, as was Lever, but the defensive system was still in the process of being developed (and built around them) And with Langdon, who is one of the all-time great recruits, how well he fit into our system and much he would improve us only became clear as his first season progressed.

pinching that

Does he agree top of the Ponsford is the best spot to watch footy at the g?

I was thinking about that in terms of our approach to last season. I wonder if last season the plan was to not be too intense in the preseason and early part of the season for fear of burning out later in the season after the emotion of the flag (and all the related palaver) and the shorter preseason (even shorter than normal for flag contender given th season went into October), The approach of the opposition in the first half season would have fed into that given so many teams elected to basically try and deny us the ball and not attack. We were happy to let them do that and focus on our hard-nosed defense - but that led to a lot of low energy games. And as some posters, such rpfc noted, our forward half pressure was way down in the first half of the season - which was perhaps partly a function of consciously dialing things back a bit to avoid burn out and get through a long season. I'm glad we start the season with some serious opponents because we will have to play with intensity to win. I suspect in the games against less strong opposition we will be more likely to be proactive and not let them just chip it around their back half (though I'm sure plenty of such teams will still rely on flooding our forward line, which makes for stodgy footy). I really like the approached they are taking, but as you say it's long season and i hope they don't allow the intensity pendulum to swing too hard the other way.