Adam The God

Looking through our fixture yesterday, I had us down for 16 wins. That's mostly beating the teams we should beat and winning a game against Collingwood, West Coast or Richmond. * I can't see Geelong making the 8 next year. * I think Hawthorn over-achieved this year and are starting to remind me of Geelong in that they're desperately topping up in the hope they've got enough talent to pinch one. Even with Clarkson, I don't see it. * Port are massive under achievers, but they could just as easily miss out on the 8 again. I expect them to scrape in next year though, otherwise a change of coach is coming. * The Dogs could turn it around, but they lack the midfield depth required and barring a miracle they won't make the 8 either. * Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton will be similarly placed come the end of the year. I really can't see them getting out of the bottom 4. * Unless Horse changes tact, I see Sydney missing the 8 next year. * GWS will probably finish just inside the 8, but could easily miss. * North will be on the fringe again. I could see them sneaking into the 8. * St Kilda are ordinary, but if they can bring the pressure game they brought under Richardson 2-3 years ago, they could finish on the fringe, but I can't see them making the 8. * I think we'll see Brisbane rise and finish anywhere between 13th-10th. A year too early for them to make finals IMO. That leaves the following teams to thrash it out for the top 4: West Coast, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide. The rest of the top 8 will be made up of two of GWS, Hawthorn, Port and North. OF THE TOP 4 With injuries, Richmond could miss out on the top 4 altogether. They've had an incredible run with injuries and if Rance goes down, that's 3-4 goals a game they'll be worse off. I think Riewoldt and Lynch will change the dynamics of their forwardline and transform them into a higher scoring team, but a more predictable unit, which will see them lose more often. Collingwood had a very, very easy draw this year. 2019 will test them, but through their easy draw this year, they built some confidence in their system and they still have 2 older champions in the midfield and emerging half backs and mids. I could just as easily see Collingwood tipping out of the top 4 too. West Coast have been thereabouts for the last few seasons and their defensive system and power forwards will make them difficult to beat. Particularly, now that these guys have a flag under their belts. They're beatable, but I think top 4 certainly beckons for them in 2019. Adelaide still have a good list, but injuries proved this year that they're not as powerful as it may have seemed leading into 2018. When we had crucial injuries in 2017, Goodwin pulled the right reigns and devised a system that enabled us to finish 9th and missing by percentage. In all honesty, even though they finished a single win outside of the 8 in 2018, Adelaide were a long way off being the standard of a top 8 team (bar maybe their Richmond game). They're the wild card entry for top 4 in 2019. The hype around Essendon is actually justified IMO. Their midfield is shaping up nicely. Their problem is little margin for error, both in injury (if Daniher goes down again and Fantasia misses, they'll struggle to make the 8 ) and in work rate+system. Their lack of a decent second KPF and a good ruckman will probably see them just miss the top 4, but who knows? This leaves us. If we can stay healthy and fit, our list is well balanced, although still slow on the outside. If Gawn, Oliver and Brayshaw stay fit we'll push for top 4. If they all play and are accompanied by Viney (IMO almost our most important player), we'll make the top 4. I hope Lever, May and one of McDonald/Frost get some serious continuity together next season. If they do, we'll be hard to beat.

RE: Bruce, he should have stayed retired and would have remained one of the greats. His reputation would have been further enhanced due to the lack of decent commentators these days. It speaks volumes about the state of commentary that Bruce even came back. Commetti was the same too. He shouldn't have come back. Even he'd lost it. RE: Essendon, they're still cheats. ?

I agree, although I think Essendon are the stop-gap until Carlton dig themselves out of the mire. The AFL want a close contest. Essendon are more likely to provide a better account of themselves (with a large audience watching) than Carlton would.

Spot on mate. Big chance to lure the likes of Kelly to Melbourne in 2020 on the back of another strong season, but a vastly improved fixture list with exposure on the big stage.

Bloody great! Collingwood had a walk in the park draw this year. Next year will tell us where they really sit.

Brilliant draw. We get to play Essendon, Collingwood and Richmond in big MCG home games. That's a wonderful result for us in a year when we won't get the home gate receipts of ANZAC Eve and QBD. We've been rightly rewarded and I'm glad to see Carlton have been relegated to the Sunday afternoon graveyard spot. If we can make top 4 in 2019, it will be a dream for our sponsors. Our brand will be front and centre in prime time most of the year. ?

This problem has been compounded by the fallacy that being a lawyer or an accountant earns you lots of money. These courses are packed out, meaning many young people miss out on those courses. It's also these industries that are flailing and becoming increasingly automated, which then in turn impacts on the choices young people have to follow when it comes to their career paths. Coupled with the cost of living and inflation, young people are [censored], which is why there has been such a large growth in wellness and wellbeing in the younger generation. The new post-neoliberablism era - it's still about the self, but you are connected to others, which is far healthier. Our generation has a willingness to open up and deal with their mental health demons - I am currently producing a mental health doco on millennials and it's garnered a groundswell of industry support. Having a close circle of friends, healthy relationships with your family, a stable work/life balance (yes, I'm not perfect when it comes to this side of things, but a work in progress- I'm passionate about my filmmaking and have difficulty letting go - just ask my wife!) and an ability to acknowledge your mental health when it creeps up on you, are keys to happiness in life. Along with pursuing things you're passionate about.

This is the glaring issue for mine. We've no midfield depth, unless we see Salem, ANB and Lewis roll through the middle, which I don't think we'd want. That would leave maybe 7 guys that can go through there from: Oliver, Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Viney, AVB and Jones. It'll be interesting to see if we pick up any delisted FAs and what our draft strategy is.

Do we really have significant depth though? I'm not convinced.

Lol. Are Carlton being hyped up though?

No doubt our list is still a work in progress. I think we were simply hamstrung by the deal we had to do for Lever (which I support).

And don't get me wrong. I hate Essendon with a passion. They're a blight on our competition and should have been sat out of the league for a year and not allowed access to the first round of 2-3 drafts. Their 'sanctions' were far too weak.

I concur. I don't concur. Absolutely do not deserve more night games. They did not manage to make the finals and were comprehensively blown away in week 1 of the 2017 finals series. We deserve more night games and prime time exposure because we made a preliminary final and were a whisker off the 2017 finals series. If we were talking about the fixture going into 2018 I'd agree with you more. But they failed in 2018.

Agreed, although their spread away from the contest that killed us a few years back has not been addressed. Fortunately, Essendon's ruck stocks are weak and if we get first use from Gawn, we should account for them.

I agree with the sentiment that they overrated Billings and perhaps Salem, but we have no idea whether Cripps, Merrett etc were also in our top 3-5 players.

Daniher kills us every single time. He generates 5+ shots on goal against our defence. Absolutely owns us. The only reason we've beaten them the last two times is his poor kicking. The last time he kicked straight, they beat us.

You've got to remember we're transitioning out of the pokies business. You don't then strip away other financial winners, without having a strong revenue stream to replace it. I'd like to know what the multiple angles are that don't make it work. IMO we need to be a little bit less precious about this as supporters. If we've got a decent football side they will win that game and it's an advantage playing a team up there who have never played up there. We make much more money on this game than we would if 30,000 turned up to the G. There's still a strong case to keep playing the NT games. At least for the short to mid term future. 2022-2025 we can start thinking about alternative revenue streams. Hopefully by that stage we've built a powerhouse and we no longer need these NT games, but don't hold your breath.

Your two sentences sound like a combination of opinion and dislike, which completely contradict each other. The hype around them is over the top, but if they finish higher than us you won't be happy. You can't have it both ways. The hype around Essendon is no more over the top than the hype surrounding us last off season and as we proved, the hype was real. I hope the Essendon hype is false, but they look pretty balanced now. I concur though that if they finish high on the ladder, I'll be [censored] off. I cannot believe their cheating was allowed to enable them to get top draft picks and bottom out without strong enough draft sanctions. When Melbourne and Carlton had salary cap breeches, they were impacted (I'd argue) long term. Not so, Essendon. The amount of elite midfield talent they've assembled in the last 3 years is comparable, if not higher, than our own.

I had Essendon in my 8 this year. I've really rated them for the past two years. That is, I've really rated their list. They've actually got a really good list balance. Yes, okay, maybe they lack inside depth, but they will challenge next year if they can keep Daniher and Fantasia on the park. Adding Shiel to that midfield makes them extremely dangerous. I noted a few Demonlanders don't rate him, but I think he's a star and will add not only inside hardness to their midfield, but more breakaway pace. My concern with Essendon (from a Melbourne point of view) is their leg speed and potential speed of ball movement. If they get it right next year, they'll murder us on the outside. I think Worsfold is past it, but there's a chance with his list that he could pinch a flag in the next 2 years.

Well, they're different players. I don't rate Maynard either, but he's on the list, so it doesn't cost us much to keep him.

Hi Saty. How are you going? I've never used the term list clogger in my posting days, so don't be too sensitive. I had Kent and Bugg on the fringe and have been on record as saying Bugg would go. He did. I'm not going to play the man here, so I'll merely say we were confident enough to offload Tyson because we could get a much cheaper replacement and at the same time, land Preuss in the deal. Tyson was most likely a salary cap dump. Thanks for the source on the Lyons trade.

Disagree. Cripps is a better player than Kelly for mine, who was taken outside the top 10.

What a rubbish list. Haha, oh Gazza. Loved you as a player, but you've got little clue as a commentator.

He's retired... https://www.sbs.com.au/news/hawk-langford-retires-after-afl-delisting

If people are posting news like Lyons' three year deal, would you mind linking to a source, so it lends your post more credence? Thanks. And FWIW, Lyons is the perfect depth player for us. He's not A grade, but he doesn't have obvious weaknesses either (unlike Townsend).