There need to be some really hard calls made at the end of this season. The rookie situation is going to force it.
Consider our four rookies.
We want to upgrade vandenBerg. He's walked straight into our starting side and will only improve with more pre-seasons and better fitness. THe issue is that he can stay on the rookie list for another year if necessary, but we want to play him.
White has only had one year and is progressing really well. He'll stay on for the second year of his contract. The only reason he wasn't taken in the ND was because everyone thought his body was too fragile but so far he's held up perfectly well so I think he'll be promoted at the end of 2016 unless something drastic happens.
Harmes has run out of time. He's consistently in the best at Casey, but has never been given a senior game. We have no real idea of what he'll be like at AFL level. The good news here is that he can be upgraded at any time and given a game, and if we continue to suffer injuries to the ball-winning brigade we might just see that happen. Either way, at the end of the season he is either cut or upgraded.
The same is true of King. This is his second year as a rookie, so it's either upgrade him or cut him. He's always been seen as a long-term project and he's showing clear signs of improvement, so I think he could be worth keeping.
What we have then is three rookies who could be in line for an upgrade. That's three players on the main list who have to go to make way for them, plus any draft picks we want to use. I would think we'd want at least our first and second picks to be live, possibly more. The question then is whether we keep Harmes and King at the expense of two main list players or cut them? As I said above, hard calls. Who do we have who might make way for them?
Hunt - Blistering pace, pretty decent kick. I've never heard his defensive efforts mentioned at all. Very injury prone.
Terlich - Hard at it, wins his own ball, good rebound runner, but his kicking is shocking and he often forgets about his man and gets caught out. Roos doesn't rate him.
Both of these are extra HBF types. Looking at the list as it stands, you'd have Salem, Grimes, Garland, Jetta, Lamumba and probably White ahead of them in the queue. I think Terlich is a certainty to go, and Hunt likely.
McKenzie - The guy the coaches have always loved because he gives everything, but he's hit his limit and his inability to impact offensively is probably going to be the end of him.
Cross - He's been great as a playing coach, but the dogs got rid of him because he couldn't keep up defensively and he's only getting slower. Might get another year or be moved into development coaching.
Bail - Another one the coaches love for his endless run, but his skills and decision-making often hurt us.
M. Jones - Similar to Bail. Has pace and endurance, very much an outside mid but his skills don't really make the grade.
Then there's Newton, Michie and Riley who are pretty similar for our purposes, very much fringe players who are in and out of the side constantly. There is a good reason none of them could get a regular slot in their previous teams. They are all reasonable top-up players, but none of them would worry you to lose either.
That gives us nine players from the list who could be let go if a better prospect were available at very little cost to our effectiveness. I don't see a realistic chance of a trade for any of them. I also don't know their contract status, so some of them may well be safe for now. The big question to ask though is whether vandenBerg, Harmes and King are ahead of any of these names?
Safe to say that vandenBerg is ahead of all of them, so that's one gone. I'd assume Terlich given his 0 games this season.
Harmes has to be ranked ahead of Hunt right now. I don't know whether they would give Hunt a chance because of his constant injury issues, but again this is the time for hard choices, so he probably gets let go.
King is a big question. He's a totally different type of player, so it's really difficult to compare him to any of these others. Personally I'd like to see him kept on, but again that means that we move on one of the above.
Then we need to make room for draft picks. Assume we want to keep our first three picks live, that's three more gone. We're now down to only three of that list remaining.
In all this of course, we haven't even looked at trades because none of the players above would attract one. In terms of players who could move to other clubs, we have some quite decent prospects. I would not be at all surprised if Fitzpatrick went to the Bulldogs in exchange for a quick outside mid/HF, of which they have many. Garland is a FA and may decide to leave us. Howe and Watts will attract offers. Grimes we may shop around.
Looking at the mess above, I think we may be surprised by how many players we wind up turning over once this season ends. It's Roos' last chance to shape the list before he hands it over to Goodwin. He'll have had two seasons to figure out who can play in his side and who can't. If you think for a moment that he's not really looking for the team to succeed while he's coach, but rather to lay a foundation for Goodwin to take to the finals, you can make some pretty good guesses at which way he's going to lean. The core of young, hard players being built up will be scary in a few years. He's holding auditions for the first ruck spot this season, and may or may not keep one or both of Spencer or Gawn depending on what they show. I suspect, as do a few others, that King will be kept on precisely because he has the potential to be a great foil for Hogan for a decade if he keeps improving.
So yeah, I think we're going to see at least six players cut on top of trades. I would like to think that the young rookies have more potential upside than the Middling mature-aged mids already on our list, but who knows which way the club will jump there? I wouldn't be surprised to see ten plus changes to the list in total. I can't see this being a conservative trade period.