Bystander

Percentages much harder to budge after round 13 compared to round 9. The reason is a points differential in a game in later rounds has less impact on % as the previous points for and against is greater. I'm afraid not a very elegant explanation.

Not my experience, I met him several times and he was very humble and gracious. Saw him at a lunch in st Kilda 4-5 weeks ago along with big nick, tuddy etc. Aged but very nice bloke.

I've watched nearly all the Casey games this year and have been extremely sceptical about Jefferson. Can mark, kick and read play. But so so easily pushed around and no physical presence. Hesitant in contest. This week he showed a lot more but still brushed aside. Some softish games coming up, finals and some months adding in pre season adding some muscle and I think the dees have a player.

If this was about any other country there would be outrage about racism. Can't you just say you don't like the bloke and leave the anti USA out. Personally, stuff him.

Desperately sad. No conviction yet and may be found not guilty. First problem is bail. Has prior and will want to leave state. And travel to other states. In his favour, he has young family in melb plus employed in an environment where he will be monitored. Depending on precise allegations I think he would get bail. Tragic. Good stretch if found guilty. Presumably didn't tell club. That would usually warrant a suspension.

Disagree. Winning a flag is always important. You can't take that attitude to any sporting contest. If it isn't in Australia's constitution it should be. Not only is it particularly important to followers and non listed players, the listed players should be doing their best in every game and to win the grand final. And it is fair to include general endeavour in their assessments. Plus, have a look at the photos of the team after last year's grand final. Listed and non listed players were rapt.

I hope he doesn't get a blister.

Like the use of the word "salient". Reading Vol VI of Bean's History of Aust in First War at the moment so surrounded by salients.

I believe he is a possible for Sunday.

It would be a better curtain raiser if it was a curtain raiser. I watched most of Collingwood's VFL win last week and wasn't impressed. I don't know who is in or out of the Casey team but I am expecting a good win. Very interesting ladder in the VFL at the moment. Will have ramifications when finals arrive. First week of VFL finals, teams 1-6 have a bye. So probably casey. If Casey are in top 4 and win, another bye. So may make life interesting for borderline firsts players trying for selection.

Yes, thanks for sending that through. Appreciated. Helped but not convinced of the statistical validity. I know that is a bit general but I'm not going to dig out my old textbooks. But interesting. Go dees. Top right hand corner if you please.

I've always thought a better measure of disposal efficiency would be measuring the distance from where the player got it and where that passage of play ended. A disposal could be up to, roughly, plus or minus 180m. So, for example lever gets the ball at chb, spots a player free gets it to him and because player B is free he has greater chance of good disposal and so on. Plus 150. If he butchers it. Minus 40m. But I'm sceptical. Very long time since my uni maths/stats but too many variables.

But this is meaningless unless both the X and Y axis are properly defined.! Surely ? What do "expected threat" and "threat rating" mean?

Interesting. I wasn't necessarily being critical of your analysis, just wanted to be clear as I enjoy your insights. Personally, I think you may be overlooking the team chemistry. Eg, Munro: lifts everyone in the team. Jefferson?

No White, Munro, Grey, Buntine, Steele. Are you saying they wouldn't make the Casey team or you are just putting listed players in their best spots ?

Melksham can jump in as backup driver.

Will the Tasmanian team have first dibs on prison bar jumpers ? After all, south australians always bang on, to people that don't care, about the fact they didn't have convicts.

If I may stray from the topic...it has always seemed wrong to me that where a player is suspended the team he erred against doesn't get the benefit of the suspension. In my view where player A concussed player B, at least one week of the suspension should be served the next time those 2 teams meet. As it stands at the moment, the aggrieved player/team can be further disadvantaged by 1, 2 or 3 other teams, competing for ladder position with player B's team, getting the benefit of player A not playing. Team B should get the benefit of the penalty.

It surprised me that some of the non listed players go well measured against full time professionals. Grey is one of them. Grey seems to be pretty much equal on both feet and his disposal efficiency is elite. His second goal today was on his left.

Jefferson is going to need to lift...a lot.

Will watch his game tomorrow with added interest. He doesn't look like he wants it too much. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

That is because one of them is wrong.

Optimism not exactly flowing on here at the moment. Southport have had an easier draw than Casey. Notwithstanding some listed names missing, I'm hoping for a lift from some very modest individual performances and a win.

Exactly right.

I don't think it is the strongest comp in the country. I watched st Pat's Ballarat get beaten by st Bede's in the Herald Sun championship a couple of years ago. St Bede's had its first win...I enquired...st Bede's had 17 TAC cup ( nab ) players in its team. No scholarships players. I had a son at APS school at the time and nephews at 2 others. I found the aps teams to have a couple scholarship boys, some with talent and most would never make tac cup. I think that is why they duck Herald Sun playoff to find best school team. Just my opinion.