MrFreeze

39 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree, it definitely a useful indicator.

We have usually been in that so called premiership quadrant ever since they started using it (and on that graphic almost are now)

It just gets a bit silly when the fox  crew treat it like it is some sort of statistical Rosetta stone

I mean, the sample size is small and for example we are marginally outside an arbitrary line. 

And because you have applied a level of analysis the fox crew haven’t, you have highlighted a possible explanation for say where we are located on the graph.

I get the whole thing is about creating content and talking points and pretty graphics that lend some gravitas.

But it just reinforces the scepticism about the use of stats and analytics to help understand the game

Statistics in the AFL are almost always used to 'explain' and never 'predict'. We see a result and find stats that suit our observation. But rarely are any places like champion data creating valid predictions, which would be a true estimation of the usefulness of the selected statistics. 

Billings > Hunter at this stage. We have a lot of elite runners in our team but not many who link up as well as JB. 

1 hour ago, M_9 said:

I fully agree. Billings must be given time to master his role. Garry Lyon pointed out how our  ball movement had altered from the back half. I've no reason to believe Hunter would be any better than Jack. Like Lever, IMV Jack's performance will lift as he becomes more confident and familiar with his team mates.

I think the FD understand this and will persevere with him in the side. I see a firing Spargo as his only competition for the link man spot atm. 

Petty simply playing out his contract is a great result for us. I hope he is happy with us and will decide to re-sign when the time comes. 

Massive midfield battle coming up. If we deny them the ball at stoppage and clearance i don't see them having any path to victory. 

Their game plan is just dump kicks to their twin towers. Weitering is a one man show at the moment and their ball use exiting d50 was abysmal v Collingwood. 

We have the chance to rip two contenders apart two weeks in a row. Keen to see it. 

8 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Again MFC being conservative with players.   Brown, Hore, Schache, Hunter all saved in case they are called up for Thursday night. Unlikely except for Hunter who may come in.   Certainly robbed Casey of 3-4 more senior players.  
 

AMW had a good game imv.  He has developed well and I think he thoroughly deserves a debut shortly.  Good intensity and tackling.  Wins rhe contested footy. 1-2 turnovers but that’s not unlike others including our senior group.  Certainly offers more than Billings or Laurie in my opinion.  
 

Otherwise good chance for some Casey youngsters to get game time.  And for talents like Roy George.  Edwards also looked classy in patches.  

Still want to see Bowey at HF, so if AMW comes in to take that role to release Bowey up the ground i will welcome his inclusion. 

Would love McAdam in but he will play a full game at Casey and debut v West Coast as Goody stated in the pre game presser. Think he will replace Disco.

Would consider dropping Billings for Bowey and shifting Woey to HF but that is a graveyard shift for Woey.

Maybe Chin needs to be managed.

No resting or fresh legs needed coming off the bye period. 

11 hours ago, Stretch Johnson said:

Been a while since I enjoyed a win that much.

Was sitting with a mate in GA M2 and gave it to the usual Geelong peanuts who stir the pot behind there.

Enormously entertaining.

Had a couple frothing at the mouth.  Anyone else there?

My favourite moment was when Henry had his goal over turned, the whole crowd gave it back to them in spades

Pressure is hot from both teams

Finish the quarter with higher disposal efficiency, we look good picking our way into their zone 

Good start but must keep up our intensity 

2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

I get it's hard to conceptualise how brutual and taxing the game is on the body until you've done it yourself.

It's such an odd thing to personalise Parfitt's (or anyone's) 'management' as a statement of arrogance as opposed to 'literal' management of his fatigue and loading for a competition whereby most athletes will be running effectively 30-40km weekly, plus all the intense contact that comes weekly, and still having to put in those km's - and then doing it  8 months of the year...

Here's the thing: managing players is a crucial strategy in today's elite sports.

Squad Rotation: Teams have a larger pool of talented players than just the starting 22. This allows coaches to rotate players to prevent fatigue and injuries.

Match-Specific Strategies: Every opponent presents a different challenge. Coaches might choose players who have a specific skillset that directly counters the strengths of the team they're facing.

 

Injury Management: Even minor niggles can be a concern for elite athletes. A player might be listed as "managed" to avoid aggravating a slight injury and ensure they're fit for important games later in the season.

 

That said, it's also fair to acknowledge the complexities involved. Without being privy to the inner workings of a team, it's difficult to definitively judge the motivations behind a player's "management."

 

There could be a genuine need to manage fatigue or a niggling injury, or perhaps there's a tactical consideration at play. Ultimately, the goal should be to maximize the team's success while prioritising player well-being.

 

Open communication between coaches, players, and the public can help foster trust and understanding in these situations and, the reality is, is that that information is rarely for public consumption.

 

IMO Scott is attempting to keep his players healthy, fit and in form throughout the whole year by strategically resting players throughout. This is not exactly arrogance, Geelong has been able to effectively manage players while banking wins. 

What i find to be arrogant is that they have dropped an inform mid, at the same time Danger has been forced out. 

If Parfitt was injured, they'd list an injury. If Jhye Clark was in because of his hot form, Parfitt would have just been dropped. 

All in all, i think they believe they know they will lose badly at stoppages so they have just decided to not attempt to win this area whatsoever. They believe their rebound defense and super efficient offense will have them win comfortably. I hope we punish them badly from stoppage while shutting down their transition and rebound. 

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG, 7.30pm AEST

MELBOURNE

In: None
Out: None

R7 sub: Bailey Laurie 

GEELONG

In: T.Stewart, G.Rohan, J.Clark
Out: M.O'Connor (managed), P.Dangerfield (hamstring), B.Parfitt (managed)

R7 sub: Tom Atkins

Hope we punish there decision to drop Parfit at the same time as Dangerfield. Screams arrogance. Hope our big 3 shreds them.

9 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Parents should've named him Larry 

21 hours ago, binman said:

That is just so brilliant.

And is the sort of analysis that coverage of hamwsso desperately needs. It would be so easy to introduce too.

White notes the space viney creates and holds. One thing I noticed about tracc getting tagged by kickett is at centre square stoppages he took kickett away from the drop of the ball. That space often allowed koz to get involved and helped with clean exits.

Which is the sort of thing goody  us referecing when he talks about how we take advantage of a tag on clarry, tracc or Oliver.

Another tick for Goody as Brisbane effectively nullified Trac last week with a wingers tag. Good to see him adapting week by week. 

A very interesting watch here. Petty's individual performance has not been anything at all up to standard, but at the same time he is very important for structure, and as JVR said in his interview with Stafford, Petty is someone who uplifts the whole team and improves cohesion. 

He does look down on confidence and i wouldn't be surprised if the trade issues were affecting him as well. An interrupted pre season does not help either - i think we should stick by him and re-assess after our next block of games vs Geelong/Carlton. 

I have a feeling patience will be rewarded in the near future. 

Lobb is a massive dud on a fat contract, absolutely no interest 

43 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

And boy aren’t you just just fountain of boring tripe that constantly pipes in whenever someone has a different opinion to you that doesn't float in the same boat as you do.

I balanced out my opinion by stating that I thought Will Verrall was much more of a deserved selection purely because he has been far more consistent at VFL level then Fullarton has, which again, is been outlined in the VFL player by player reviews.

Clearly I don't think Verrall plays anyway, but based on form and from the VFL games I've seen I'd play Verrall ahead of any other tall target we have.

And for your information, Fullarton has played at AFL level and has been absolutely BOG ordinary. 

Brissy fans were not sad to see Fullarton leave. He doesn't really have a big mans game, doesn't clunk marks or crash packs. He has good second efforts at ground level, but that's not what the team really needs. 

4 minutes ago, Bendigo_Demon said:

I spoke to Clarry last night. Said he is a stone cold certainty to play. 

3 hours ago, picket fence said:

The intel I have is that Clarry won't be risked next week!

An uber competitive tall is a major asset. Especially in a league where key positions often get a pass for just being the requisite size. 

2 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

I noticed in the podcast on here that we talked about 3 games in 13 days as a major factor / reason. Whilst I don’t doubt fatigue was involved, 3 in 13 is actually almost 1 game every 7 days, which isn’t really all that bad. Lions were at 3 in 14 days so that is hardly a difference to explain the monumental differences.

 You could say that we have played 1 extra game than the lions in the same time frame alluding to the bye round that Lions already have but at this early stage of the season , does this really matter?

I refuse to accept this as an excuse and I think it was a very small factor in the whole scheme of things. Doing so is really not doing the required game analysis to really understand how we need to play against them. Our brand does not stack up anymore. 
 

Lions have the formula to beat us and have essentially done so in 3/4 last encounters - let’s be fair it’s lucky they are not 4/4. They know how to beat us and do so comprehensively. This is a coaching failure more than anything else. 

Strength of schedule plays a major factor. Brissy schedule since rnd 2 has been a bye, Underdone Pies and North. 

Completely different to a bruising game against port and Adelaide.

On 15/04/2024 at 16:28, binman said:

Totally reasonable questions.

Which point to another aspect to not ignoring the issue of fatigue.

If you accept fatigue plays a big role in the outcome of any given match then it is reasonable to critique the performance of the high performance team, decisions like not bringing in fresher players  (eg would Laurie have been a better option than Clarry?) or target specific games at the potential expense of others. 

Alternatively, we knew Clarry needed the surgery but he also desperately needs the kms in the legs. Same as Petty. Think the aim is building match fitness for both these boys.

11 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

 

Thanks, would those be available to view from overseas, or would I need a VPN?

 

I am not sure but you could check by attempting to watch any random game from this year

23 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

A question for anyone who regularly watches matches from overseas; I am going to be away for this game sadly, and unlikely to be able to watch it live as I'll be on a flight during the game itself.

I therefore don't want to pay for a live pass to watch from overseas, but wondering if there is somewhere I can watch the replay for free later? 

 

The afl app has match replays available for every game, usually uploaded a day later 

Out of contact next year, i'd rather wait and see if he can pried out then 

I would love any of Smith, Jamara, Weightman, or Richard's. Either way I'd love to pick the eyes out of this falling team. 

Genuinely confused how any of our forwards should get any criticism this week. We had no connection or semblance of ball movement but we expect Petty to be the difference, makes no sense.

This needs to be the game we start to build our contest work. With no Taranto we have no excuses not to win the midfield battle handily.

A good win here can give us some good momentum for a tough stretch of games.