Copuchas

Only if our cumulative winning margin against the Lions and the Pies (plus making up whatever the losing margin to the Saints is) is greater than their winning margin over Gold coast at Metricon and Freo at Etihad. The reality is that if we don't win today, we don't deserve to make finals. And it's well overdue for this football club to control its own destiny without the need to be relying on results from others.

I was born 5 months after our last premiership, I think I understand the dynamics. I have seen many false dawns. I happen to concur with Goodwin and McCartney on the brand of football that wins finals - replay the 2000 GF if in any doubt. The ultimate driver of memberships, sponsors, prime TV slots etc etc is sustained success. That will only come from a club culture and brand of football that holds up. Read the Neitz comments on where the club is headed if still uncertain.

I'm really quite surprised that so many on here are missing the cues from Goodwin. His agenda and that of his coaching panel is to win a premiership for the MFC. There are non-negotiables in how you go about that in the eyes of the FD. Defensive and pressure acts are clearly key. The game against St Kilda and a finals appearance this year are secondary considerations because the coaching panel knows that all is for nothing if the fundamental building blocks aren't in place.

Like that they didn't give Salem the face saving out of listing him as injured. For David_Neitz_Is_My_Dad, Watts was named on the interchange last week. Didn't have a visibly noticeable impact....

Well with a Sunday game it starts at 6.25pm today with a squad. Hence the outs at this stage are the most significant. There's lots of scope after last week. I'm just a tad gobsmacked at Lewis and Petracca running around in the press talking hypotheticals. I'm also bemused by people on here talking about us being able to make finals on two wins. Let's stop relying on others and focus on the task at hand - beat the Saints on Sunday.

I'd have thought that as supporters we'd target the top 4 until such time as it's unattainable!

The positivity of Barrett's article makes for pleasant reading but I found the two paragraphs in italics below somewhat irrational in as much that Nathan Jones has presumably equally played a substantive role in managing the off field issues flagged. I concur that Viney played a major role in the West Coast and Port Adelaide wins, just as Jones played a key role in the Alice Springs turnaround and win. But I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that Jack has been more integral to the stewardship of the club through the injury challenges and Jesse's personal matters. For what it's worth, I was in the camp of make Jack Vice Captain (mainly because I thought he could achieve everything that he subsequently has but without risking the alienation of Nathan Jones). As it's turned out the transition has been seamless and Jones remains the consummate professional he's been for many years now. In a season that could have unfolded badly on the back of serious injuries to key players and undisciplined acts by others, Viney's ability to lead his players to a 10-7 season and well within finals contention is full justification of Goodwin's boldness. There have been numerous issues for Viney to lead the Demons through, including All Australian ruckman Max Gawn missing nine matches with a ripped hamstring, Angus Brayshaw managing just two matches largely due to concussion, Jack Watts missing key matches with a hamstring problem and Jesse Hogan dealing with the death of his father as well as having surgery for testicular cancer.

The point being made was the lower probability of a higher margin win in adverse weather conditions and its concomitant impact on our percentage. We will not make top 4 if we win all remaining games and Port, Swans and Richmond do the same unless our relative percentage position improves.

You may think the opposite but the way the numbers work doesn't support your contention! Here is a table of our current points for / points against and percentage and two theoretical wins (one in a dry weather higher scoring, higher winning margin scenario [120 / 60] and one in a low scoring wet weather scenario [70 / 40]). A one point win will actually see our percentage go backwards. Our top four chances are very much linked to overtaking Richmond's, GWS' and the Swans percentage. 1618 1738 1688 1499 1559 1539 107.9 111.5 109.7

Weather now looking crap - 80% chance of rain from 1pm all the way through the rest of the afternoon. Guess that may take Brown and Waite out as threats but it also significantly reduces the chances of a big percentage boosting win....which we need.

Just back from training. Observations: - no Gawn, no Salem, no Oliver (and arrived just to see Jetta limping off) - Hibberd and Watts (amongst others) in no contact, no running handball drill group - Garland and McKenna running laps - no Kent obviously - TMac stopped for some work on his calf at some point but kept going - Jones did do a kicking exercise at the end in what was a Misson supervised fitness test. He was kicking on his right at about three quarter pace. Got through ok but I think it will be one more week.

That should be his nickname.....Jane.....plays like Tarzan indeed and say Jayden really quickly......

Indeed. But Coniglio will be back this week and Deledio will be looked at for our match after a further game in the NEAFL this week (I'd think). And Cameron will return this week as well.

He will get one week....which automatically becomes two weeks because of his existing record thus far this year. He will not play against us.

nope, just because it will be bloody freezing and I can jump up and down on the spot as the Dees slaughter the hapless Giants....

Have the same question as am also planning to head up. Is there any standing area at Manuka, as I'd prefer to stand at that venue.

round 18 is just a step in the road.....and the teams with who we're competing for a spot in the top 4 have games next week that they should win (possible exception is Sydney). But they all face challenges after that (Tiges have Geelong at Simonds, Hawks on the G and Saints last round; Port have Adelaide and the Dogs in Ballarat; Swans have Hawks on the G, Geelong at Simonds and Adelaide away; GWS have us in Canberra, Western Bulldogs at Etihad and Geelong in Simonds). So the beauty of this rounds results are that there are now 2 spots going in the top 4 (at least, because the Cats may yet falter). We need to win at least 4 of our remaining games and we'd be a very good chance for top 4.

Hell Bent, I was at training yesterday and you are correct with your assessment. However, Viney has said all along that if he played this week it would be with discomfort. I expect that the pain killers will be wheeled out tomorrow and they probably weren't present yesterday (or not to the same degree). Maybe Webber can opine further. In any event, this is not a situation where he can do further damage - it's about Jack and the fitness staff believing he can achieve what he needs to in terms of agility, power and pace. The discomfort piece can and will be managed, not the least bit by Jack's enormous mental strength and determination.

Just back from training. Salient points: - Viney did a series of run throughs with the fitness staff, initally in track shoes and then changes to his trusted Puma boots (with orthopedic inserts. He then joined in main training and participated fully. Didn't look to be restricted. - Salem, Watts and Tyson all participated fully and didn't show any signs of being hindered - Jones participated fully from the start but I didn't see him kick with his right leg (not to say he didn't, but I didn't observe it) - Bugg is back from time away from the club and participated in training (as did Vince) - Brayshaw has seemingly adopted the head protection gear and looks set to resume - no sign of Kent, Van den Berg, Garland or McKenna. Filipovic was doing ruck skillwork with Daniel Cross and Gref Stafford The main training session saw an intense focus on contested work.

I'll be there, should be an interesting morning. McQueen, I think you're one Misson report behind - the lastest one has Salem being right to play if he gets through tomorrow's test.

Has anyone seen the footage of Walker's strike on Lewis (and the attempt at a retribution by Lewis that Ralph was rabbiting on about on SEN)?

If Jason Bennett can learn the difference between Wagner, Harmes and Oliver there may be the prospect of some half decent commentary.

For anyone who saw the Goodwin embrace of Kent post the Carlton win, it's clear he plays this week. Yes he started slowly but he built in to the game and the defenisve acts were there....which is what Goodwin was looking for. They gave Wagner another shot this week utilising the same thinking and he didn't disappoint. They knew that all of Hogan, Kent and Smith would be underdone but it was a calculated risk to get some AFL match time in to them whilst hopefully still pulling off a win. Tyson in (if he comes up), Stretch out.

The permutations and combinations are endless for the balance of the season. One thing that's received little coverage is that we have no away games. Yes, we have three games at neutral venues but we have played good football at all of them recently (the Freo win in Darwin, the 1st half against GWS at Manuka and the last 3 quarters against North last year at Bellerive). Absolutely nothing to fear on that front. I'm more concerned around the consistency of the Darwin hangover phenomena in terms of the Port match

which weather forecast are you looking at???? There's a 5% chance of rain in the 4-7pm window as per the BoM site