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Everything posted by Copuchas

  1. The point being made was the lower probability of a higher margin win in adverse weather conditions and its concomitant impact on our percentage. We will not make top 4 if we win all remaining games and Port, Swans and Richmond do the same unless our relative percentage position improves.
  2. You may think the opposite but the way the numbers work doesn't support your contention! Here is a table of our current points for / points against and percentage and two theoretical wins (one in a dry weather higher scoring, higher winning margin scenario [120 / 60] and one in a low scoring wet weather scenario [70 / 40]). A one point win will actually see our percentage go backwards. Our top four chances are very much linked to overtaking Richmond's, GWS' and the Swans percentage. 1618 1738 1688 1499 1559 1539 107.9 111.5 109.7
  3. Weather now looking crap - 80% chance of rain from 1pm all the way through the rest of the afternoon. Guess that may take Brown and Waite out as threats but it also significantly reduces the chances of a big percentage boosting win....which we need.
  4. Just back from training. Observations: - no Gawn, no Salem, no Oliver (and arrived just to see Jetta limping off) - Hibberd and Watts (amongst others) in no contact, no running handball drill group - Garland and McKenna running laps - no Kent obviously - TMac stopped for some work on his calf at some point but kept going - Jones did do a kicking exercise at the end in what was a Misson supervised fitness test. He was kicking on his right at about three quarter pace. Got through ok but I think it will be one more week.
  5. That should be his nickname.....Jane.....plays like Tarzan indeed and say Jayden really quickly......
  6. Indeed. But Coniglio will be back this week and Deledio will be looked at for our match after a further game in the NEAFL this week (I'd think). And Cameron will return this week as well.
  7. He will get one week....which automatically becomes two weeks because of his existing record thus far this year. He will not play against us.
  8. nope, just because it will be bloody freezing and I can jump up and down on the spot as the Dees slaughter the hapless Giants....
  9. Have the same question as am also planning to head up. Is there any standing area at Manuka, as I'd prefer to stand at that venue.
  10. round 18 is just a step in the road.....and the teams with who we're competing for a spot in the top 4 have games next week that they should win (possible exception is Sydney). But they all face challenges after that (Tiges have Geelong at Simonds, Hawks on the G and Saints last round; Port have Adelaide and the Dogs in Ballarat; Swans have Hawks on the G, Geelong at Simonds and Adelaide away; GWS have us in Canberra, Western Bulldogs at Etihad and Geelong in Simonds). So the beauty of this rounds results are that there are now 2 spots going in the top 4 (at least, because the Cats may yet falter). We need to win at least 4 of our remaining games and we'd be a very good chance for top 4.
  11. Hell Bent, I was at training yesterday and you are correct with your assessment. However, Viney has said all along that if he played this week it would be with discomfort. I expect that the pain killers will be wheeled out tomorrow and they probably weren't present yesterday (or not to the same degree). Maybe Webber can opine further. In any event, this is not a situation where he can do further damage - it's about Jack and the fitness staff believing he can achieve what he needs to in terms of agility, power and pace. The discomfort piece can and will be managed, not the least bit by Jack's enormous mental strength and determination.
  12. Just back from training. Salient points: - Viney did a series of run throughs with the fitness staff, initally in track shoes and then changes to his trusted Puma boots (with orthopedic inserts. He then joined in main training and participated fully. Didn't look to be restricted. - Salem, Watts and Tyson all participated fully and didn't show any signs of being hindered - Jones participated fully from the start but I didn't see him kick with his right leg (not to say he didn't, but I didn't observe it) - Bugg is back from time away from the club and participated in training (as did Vince) - Brayshaw has seemingly adopted the head protection gear and looks set to resume - no sign of Kent, Van den Berg, Garland or McKenna. Filipovic was doing ruck skillwork with Daniel Cross and Gref Stafford The main training session saw an intense focus on contested work.
  13. I'll be there, should be an interesting morning. McQueen, I think you're one Misson report behind - the lastest one has Salem being right to play if he gets through tomorrow's test.
  14. Has anyone seen the footage of Walker's strike on Lewis (and the attempt at a retribution by Lewis that Ralph was rabbiting on about on SEN)?
  15. If Jason Bennett can learn the difference between Wagner, Harmes and Oliver there may be the prospect of some half decent commentary.
  16. For anyone who saw the Goodwin embrace of Kent post the Carlton win, it's clear he plays this week. Yes he started slowly but he built in to the game and the defenisve acts were there....which is what Goodwin was looking for. They gave Wagner another shot this week utilising the same thinking and he didn't disappoint. They knew that all of Hogan, Kent and Smith would be underdone but it was a calculated risk to get some AFL match time in to them whilst hopefully still pulling off a win. Tyson in (if he comes up), Stretch out.
  17. The permutations and combinations are endless for the balance of the season. One thing that's received little coverage is that we have no away games. Yes, we have three games at neutral venues but we have played good football at all of them recently (the Freo win in Darwin, the 1st half against GWS at Manuka and the last 3 quarters against North last year at Bellerive). Absolutely nothing to fear on that front. I'm more concerned around the consistency of the Darwin hangover phenomena in terms of the Port match
  18. which weather forecast are you looking at???? There's a 5% chance of rain in the 4-7pm window as per the BoM site
  19. AFL site says he has resigned as Diversity Manager. He's had a bit of an eventful week the boy. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-07-05/fahour-out-of-local-footy-after-life-ban
  20. Radar, I think it's ok to reference things that are on the public record, so we can mention Mick Molloy and Nicole Cornes. I love the front bar in terms of Andy Maher and Sam Pang but Molloy is a base, boorish, bullying oaf in my view that can't disguise in any way, shape or form his loathing for all things MFC. And as for Sam's misogyny, I'm not sure we climb that ladder even one rung when it comes to Molloy.
  21. Not defending the quartet because I don't know what specific parameters were set. However, there is a possibility that the Club put in place a protocol for the 4 games in 18 days for the entire senior list without thinking through that the 6 day turnarounds and travel component didn't apply to the Casey fixture and therefore ought not apply to the Casey players. There is also a possibility that the quartet thought for the same reason, that it didn't apply to them ie misunderstanding. I'm fully supportive of the Club standing firm, would just advocate that the protocols put in place are well thought through.
  22. Not sure if there's a standard rule but there was a specific protocol through the 4 games in 18 days period. Perhaps they thought it ought not reasonably apply to them as they stayed behind in Melbourne...
  23. White promoted off the rookie list and will play http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2017-06-29/white-to-play-first-game-of-season
  24. Indeed it's not, although everything else being equal, I'd prefer Kent's bigger body against the Swans (provided of course that he's prepared to use it). The team will need to be selected with maximum flexibility in mind this week as there's quite a few variables ie does TMac need to go back if Buddy gets off the chain on Frosty or OMac. In that sense, I'm more comfortable with Kent's ability to role through the midfield if Hunt got swung forward for example, than I am with JKH's ability to make a major impact at half forward. Similarly, Wagner probably a few more strings to his bow at this juncture than White. For us to win, Lewis, Vince, Viney and Tyson will have to play to their full potential I think against Hanneberry, Kennedy, Parker and Heeney.
  25. Jeff's scan came back completely clear as reported in the club's injury update. If he had a hamstring tear, he would not be running laps. But he had / has hamstring tightness. So it becomes a risk assessment as to whether the tightness dissipates sufficiently to be able to play, including running at full speed which is vital to Jeff's game. I don't think he'll get up....
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