Jump to content

DR4 Brownlow Medal

Featured Replies

Posted

Only one round left in the DR4 Brownlow Medal and only three players can win it. Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and Brent Harvey. Ablett has a one vote lead from Bartel and it looks like one of them will be the winners. Harvey needs to poll 3 votes in the last round and hope Geelong get beaten. Who will win it?

The best placed Melbourne players are James McDonald and Nathan Jones on 7 votes.

Leaderboard

G. Ablett - 28

J. Bartel - 27

B. Harvey - 25

D. Kerr - 22

M. Pavlich - 20

N. Riewoldt - 19

 
Only one round left in the DR4 Brownlow Medal and only three players can win it. Gary Ablett, Jimmy Bartel and Brent Harvey. Ablett has a one vote lead from Bartel and it looks like one of them will be the winners. Harvey needs to poll 3 votes in the last round and hope Geelong get beaten. Who will win it?

The best placed Melbourne players are James McDonald and Nathan Jones on 7 votes.

Leaderboard

G. Ablett - 28

J. Bartel - 27

B. Harvey - 25

D. Kerr - 22

M. Pavlich - 20

N. Riewoldt - 19

Are you saying Jonathon Brown is not on your leaderboard?

I hope he is at least top 10. He should have got multiple best on grounds for a patch.

 
  • Author
according to sportsbet the odds would suggest neither jones or jmac are the best placed demons...

Then I suggest that come Brownlow night, you put a bet on one of them being our highest vote getter.

Demons32, Jonathon Brown is in my top 10 ... with a whole host of players on 18 votes.

Doing your own brownlow throughout the year in order to make a profit from it is extremely risky and dangerous. In fact, you're almost guaranteed to lose money.

dr4e, what was your top 10 last year, and how did those players actually perform in the real count?


  • Author
Doing your own brownlow throughout the year in order to make a profit from it is extremely risky and dangerous. In fact, you're almost guaranteed to lose money.

dr4e, what was your top 10 last year, and how did those players actually perform in the real count?

Hi Arem. Last year I profited $250 so I was happy with that. I had Brad Johnson and Adam Goodes joint winners, and from memory Scott West, Cameron Bruce, Nick Riewoldt and some others were in my top 10. Overall, I was pretty close to the real thing, the only difference being that my vote count was a little higher than the real deal. The only real player who didnt perform as well in the real count as he did in mine was Paul Chapman.

So what were your bets?

Johnson finished way down, Bruce and Riewoldt weren't even close.

Goodes was the raging hot favourite going in, with West not far behind. Both would have had short odds.

I'm still not sure how you made a profit, let alone $250.

You must have had a bucket load on Goodes to win which imo is a crazy risk to take on something like the Brownlow. For your own sake, i'd advise against taking a similar approach this year.

arem, im not sure why you are attacking this thread, it is just a bit of fun and it gives people who havnt seen other games an interesting insight...

here is last years DR4 brownlow results. if you were really interested you could of search the forums yourself. perhaps you could go and get us a list of the 2006 brownlow results so we can compare them?

2006 DR4 Brownlow

I've enjoyed doing the count this year, and I hope you have all enjoyed the weekly update. Cheers.

FINAL RESULT

($14) B. Johnson – 27

($9) S. Goodwin – 26

($2.35) A. Goodes – 25

($NA) P. Bell – 22 **

($4.50) S. West – 21

($5.50) C. Judd – 20

($18) N. Riewoldt – 19

($151) B. Hall – 19

($71) C. Bruce – 18

($751) P. Chapman – 18

($17) N. Dal Santo – 17

($8) B. Cousins – 16

($NA) B. Fevola – 16 **

($NA) B. McLean – 15 **

($61) M. Pavlich – 15

you will notice his line too 'hope you enjoyed it'. this is about fun, not about being perfect or right...

 

and here are a few of DR4's bets from last year

$20 on Bruce to win at $41 - pays $820.

$10 on Johnson to win at $31 - pays $310.

$10 on Johnson to place at $8.50 - pays $85

$10 on Chapman for top 5 at $41 - pays $410.

I have no problem with someone doing there own brownlow for personal enjoyment.

What i do have a problem with, is posting it here and then suggesting people place bets based on the results. There's absolutely no logic behind finding value by watching each game, and taking down your own votes. The above 2 posts seem to support this. I can't for the life of me work out how a profit was made last year given those bets. :huh:

I just don't want people to be sucked in. The Brownlow count is extremely unpredictable, and using someone's own count as a guide will only lead to trouble.


I have no problem with someone doing there own brownlow for personal enjoyment.

What i do have a problem with, is posting it here and then suggesting people place bets based on the results.

take a few moments of your time and read back through this thread. no one is saying that this is going to be right. but it is as much a guide as the herald sun or the age player of the year comps. and in this case a single person has watched all the games, reducing the error, but perhaps more subjective.

no one is telling you to put your life savings on it. in fact the only line about betting was in response to another poster querying the odds.

if you dont like the thread, or you dont like betting, dont read it.

  • Author

Geez, havent my Brownlow threads caused some friction in the last few weeks??

Arem, I have never suggested anyone put a bet on the count based on my estimation. I only suggested it to BrownlowBruce based on a question he asked. I do this Brownlow count for fun, I really enjoy comparing myself to the umpires and seeing if I can get an insight. I am an umpire myself so its interesting to see. If you don't like what I'm doing, then don't read it as Deanox said. Overall I have received plenty of positive feedback on the threads from senior posters, which is why I continue to update the forum.

As for those bets you see, I was going halves with a mate on them, so I only spent $25 there. What I didnt mention last year was that I won a raffle at my local tennis club that handed me $2,000. With that, I decided to plunge $150 on Goodes to win. You only live once right? $150 at $2.35 = $352.50

Well I apologise, it looks like I may have exaggerated my winnings ... only profited $150ish.

Not sure why I feel compelled to explain myself however. If you don't like it, don't click on the thread - pretty simple.

Thanks for your thoughts, you have confirmed my thinking to back bartel for the win/place and take pavlich as a place

Cheers

Geez, havent my Brownlow threads caused some friction in the last few weeks??

Arem, I have never suggested anyone put a bet on the count based on my estimation. I only suggested it to BrownlowBruce based on a question he asked. I do this Brownlow count for fun, I really enjoy comparing myself to the umpires and seeing if I can get an insight. I am an umpire myself so its interesting to see. If you don't like what I'm doing, then don't read it as Deanox said. Overall I have received plenty of positive feedback on the threads from senior posters, which is why I continue to update the forum.

As for those bets you see, I was going halves with a mate on them, so I only spent $25 there. What I didnt mention last year was that I won a raffle at my local tennis club that handed me $2,000. With that, I decided to plunge $150 on Goodes to win. You only live once right? $150 at $2.35 = $352.50

Well I apologise, it looks like I may have exaggerated my winnings ... only profited $150ish.

Not sure why I feel compelled to explain myself however. If you don't like it, don't click on the thread - pretty simple.

So the only way you really made a profit was by putting a reasonable size bet on the favourite because that's what the papers/media said, not you. I could have won more than you be simply picking up the paper the morning of the brownlow and putting $150 on whoever was the favourite, without watching a minute of game time.

P.S. What i've noticed about the votes you give this year and last is that you always vote too high for the "guns". I think you look out for the big names too much which is why you give alot of the well known players more votes than they actually end up with. Just a thought.

  • 2 weeks later...

what did u end up with mate? Boomer surely got the 3 in the last round, dunno bout garry though.


Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Featured Content

  • PREVIEW: Gold Coast

    The Gold Coast Suns find themselves outside of the top eight for the first time since Round 1 with pressure is mounting on the entire organisation. Their coach Damien Hardwick expressed his frustration at his team’s condition last week by making a middle-finger gesture on television that earned him a fine for his troubles. He showed his desperation by claiming that Fox should pick up the tab.  There’s little doubt the Suns have shown improvement in 2025, and their position on the ladder is influenced to some extent by having played fewer games than their rivals for a playoff role at the end of the season, courtesy of the disruption caused by Cyclone Alfred in March.  However, they are following the same trajectory that hindered the club in past years whenever they appeared to be nearing their potential. As a consequence, that Hardwick gesture should be considered as more than a mere behavioral lapse. It’s a distress signal that does not bode well for the Queenslanders. While the Suns are eager to remain in contention with the top eight, Melbourne faces its own crisis, which is similarly deep-seated but in a much different way. After recovering from a disappointing start to the season and nearing a return to respectability among its peer clubs, the Demons have experienced a decline in status, driven by the fact that while their form has been reasonable (see their performance against the ladder leader in the Kings Birthday match), their conversion in front of goal is poor enough to rank last in the competition. Furthermore, their opponents find them exceptionally easy to score against. As a result, they have effectively eliminated themselves from the finals race and are again positioned to finish in the bottom half of the ladder.

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 3 replies
  • NON-MFC: Round 15

    As the Demons head into their Bye Round, it's time to turn our attention to the other matches being played. Which teams are you tipping this week? And which results would be most favourable for the Demons if we can manage to turn our season around? Follow all the non-Melbourne games here and join the conversation as the ladder continues to take shape.

      • Like
    • 276 replies
  • REPORT: Port Adelaide

    Of course, it’s not the backline, you might argue and you would probably be right. It’s the boot studder (do they still have them?), the midfield, the recruiting staff, the forward line, the kicking coach, the Board, the interchange bench, the supporters, the folk at Casey, the head coach and the club psychologist  It’s all of them and all of us for having expectations that were sufficiently high to have believed three weeks ago that a restoration of the Melbourne team to a position where we might still be in contention for a finals berth when the time for the midseason bye arrived. Now let’s look at what happened over the period of time since Melbourne overwhelmed the Sydney Swans at the MCG in late May when it kicked 8.2 to 5.3 in the final quarter (and that was after scoring 3.8 to two straight goals in the second term). 

      • Clap
      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 3 replies
  • CASEY: Essendon

    Casey’s unbeaten run was extended for at least another fortnight after the Demons overran a persistent Essendon line up by 29 points at ETU Stadium in Port Melbourne last night. After conceding the first goal of the evening, Casey went on a scoring spree from about ten minutes in, with five unanswered majors with its fleet of midsized runners headed by the much improved Paddy Cross who kicked two in quick succession and livewire Ricky Mentha who also kicked an early goal. Leading the charge was recruit of the year, Riley Bonner while Bailey Laurie continued his impressive vein of form. With Tom Campbell missing from the lineup, Will Verrall stepped up to the plate demonstrating his improvement under the veteran ruckman’s tutelage. The Demons were looking comfortable for much of the second quarter and held a 25-point lead until the Bombers struck back with two goals in the shadows of half time. On the other side of the main break their revival continued with first three goals of the half. Harry Sharp, who had been quiet scrambled in the Demons’ first score of the third term to bring the margin back to a single point at the 17 minute mark and the game became an arm-wrestle for the remainder of the quarter and into the final moments of the last.

      • Clap
    • 0 replies
  • PREGAME: Gold Coast

    The Demons have the Bye next week but then are on the road once again when they come up against the Gold Coast Suns on the Gold Coast in what could be a last ditch effort to salvage their season. Who comes in and who comes out?

      • Thanks
    • 158 replies
  • PODCAST: Port Adelaide

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 16th June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we dissect the Dees disappointing loss to the Power.
    Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
    Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • Thanks
    • 33 replies