THE VIBE AND OTHER THINGS ...

[Demonland 71,586]

THE VIBE - PART 1 by J.V.McKay

The last time Melbourne faced off against the Kangaroos was a mere eight weeks ago in Round 9 at the MCG. The Demons were winless and struggling in the wake of a debilitating injury crisis while the Roos were riding on the crest of a wave. They dominated the first three quarters but had to withstand a Melbourne final quarter onslaught to win their sixth game on end after losing the first three. The Kangaroos' credibility problem with the public remained intact because nobody believed in them and after all, this was a victory over one of the competition's underachievers and it was by the narrowest of margins.

As a loyal supporter of the Melbourne Football Club I saw this performance as one that possibly marked the end of one of the most difficult periods the club has had to endure in recent times. I couldn't quite place my finger on why I felt that the worst of it was all over and I guess I must have felt a bit like Dennis Denuto, the character played by Tiriel Mora in The Castle. I didn't need an explanation for the way I felt - it was all about the "vibe".

For a little while my "vibe" theory worked and things did actually look up for the Demons. They went on to win their next two matches against finals aspirants in Adelaide and Collingwood and suddenly, people were talking about the mathematical possibility of making the finals. Meanwhile, the Kangaroos lost their next game by 11 goals at the claws of the Eagles at Subiaco. The tide seemed to be turning for both Melbourne and the Kangaroos.

Unfortunately, I was wrong about the vibe. You can't succeed in an elite sporting competition on a vibe alone and in a short space of time, the tide turned back on itself. Moving forward another month and we find ourselves in Round 16 and the teams are due to meet again, albeit at a different venue. And, my how things have changed again!

The Kangaroos are again virtually unbackable favourites to win and more importantly, they have gained credibility in the eyes of the public through their performances on the field. The opposite applies to the Demons. Neale Daniher no longer coaches them and their injury list is as long and as deep as the Grand Canyon. By contrast, the Roos are contemplating the finals series and, while coach Dean Laidley is still not a certainty to retain his job, his career as an AFL coach is almost assured. If the Kangaroos don't keep him, someone else will snaffle him up.

Looking further back to Round 20 of last year, it's almost inconceivable that Melbourne conceded a twenty point half time lead to the Kangaroos and still managed to pile on the goals in the second half of the game to win by 50 points. At that point, Laidley was no certainty to see out another season at the helm for the Shinboners.

This gives rise to the question "why"?

Why have the fortunes of both sides seen such a reversal in the space of less than twelve months?

From Melbourne's point of view, and I'm not making excuses here, it's been a constant case of injury, injury and more injury.

OK. I am making excuses but I'm justified in this case. When these teams last met it appeared that the Demons' injury crisis was abating but, in fact, it was just about to get worse. It's no longer a crisis but a plague.

The best way to tell the story of this plague in all of its gory detail is through the work of my colleague Sam the Stats Man and in his updated statistical look at the club. Consider that when the Melbourne team steps out onto the Telstra Dome turf on Sunday evening only Nathan Carroll, James McDonald and Jeff White will be able to say that they've been in the side for every game played at this stage of the season which is an AFL low for 2007. On the other hand, Melbourne has used 38 different players in the past 15 rounds – an AFL high for the season. Its a story that doesn't really resonate with any good vibes.

THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB LIST TO DATE - SEASON 2007 by Sam the Stats Man

BARTRAM, Clint MFC 1 game 0 goals - had a limited pre-season after suffering an ankle injury in Round 22, 2006 against Adelaide, Bartram was recalled for the opening game of the season and was used sparingly. He injured a knee at training before Round 2 and then complications set in delaying his recovery. Out for the remainder of the season.

BATE, Matthew MFC 14 games 15 goals - has started to show some real confidence and a belief in his capacity to play well at the highest level and has played some good games at centre half forward. An exciting prospect.

BELL, Daniel MFC 13 games 1 goal – has started to fulfil his early promise with some excellent games in defence where he combines strength, pace and endurance to advantage despite having to work under extreme pressure on a weekly basis. Injured a hamstring early in the Essendon game and has been out of action since then.

BIZZELL, Clint MFC 8 games 0 goals SFC Seniors - 4 games 1 goal - after missing all of last year with injury the veteran defender has returned to form in the twilight of his career.

BODE, Jace ® SFC Seniors 8 games 1 goal SFC Reserves - 4 games 1 goal – has finally established himself with the Sandy seniors mainly as a defender or in a run with role.

BROWN, Nathan MFC 12 games 2 goals - the hard running defender has not had it all his way this year and has been dropped from the side a couple of times. Still picks up plenty of the ball but remains wasteful at times.

BRUCE, Cameron MFC 13 games 6 goals - probably close to leading the club's best and fairest but has still not been a world beater this season. This versatile player has a great work rate but his kicking has been awful of late. Missed the past two games with a hamstring in jury.

BUCKLEY, Simon MFC 2 games 0 goals SFC Seniors 10 games 1 goal – has a long learning curve working his way up through the ranks at Sandringham and was finally given his chance against Carlton a fortnight ago. Has shown some promise.

CARROLL, Nathan MFC 15 games 0 goals - feeling the pressure in a weak defence but has done some good things and led the defence by example and with plenty of courage. He did reasonably well in suppressing a rampant Jonathan Brown last week after the Lions’ champion had done an early number on Brad Miller.

DAVEY, Aaron MFC 15 games 19 goals - had a poor start to the season but gradually worked his way back into form. Has recently shown frustration at close checking opponents and finally snapped against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba and his retaliatory strike has cost him the next two matches through suspension.

DUNN, Lynden MFC 8 games 6 goals SFC Seniors - 5 game 9 goals - a serious facial injury kept him out of the first couple of rounds and was hot and cold on return to the Melbourne side. Still in the development phase Dunn is a player in the future.

FERGUSON, Ryan MFC 2 games 0 goals SFC Seniors 6 games 7 goals SFC Reserves 2 games 8 goals - the injury prone defender can't take a trick. When he finally gained a place in the Demons’ side against West Coast he broke a thumb and missed a month. Came back through the Zebra reserves and has been playing well recently in the seniors.

FRAWLEY, James MFC 1 game 0 goals SFC Seniors 1 game 0 goals SFC Reserves 1 game 0 goals - was on course for a Round 1 debut until stress fractures in the foot put him out for almost two months. Came back through the Sandy reserves. was hospitalised after being concussed early and then impressed in the seniors at Sandringham. Has shown some promising signs and looks capable of filling a key defender’s role when he fills out physically.

GARLAND, Colin MFC 2 games 0 goals SFC Seniors 10 games 5 goals – has struggled in his two games at AFL level and needs more time learning his craft at Sandringham where he has been good at both ends of the ground.

GODFREY, Simon MFC 14 games 7 goals - disposal and decision-making have improved marginally and he has been terrific as the hardworking tagger. His 100 games of AFL football are a tribute to his work ethic and one that others with more talent could well take note of his determination to play the game at the highest level.

GREEN, Brad MFC 11 games 8 goals – has had an average season in the midfield (save his game against the Crows) but he always seems to look good on the rare occasions when he is moved into the forward line. Missed the past few weeks with a hamstring and it will be interesting to see where Mark Riley plays him on return this week.

HAYES, Daniel ® SFC Seniors 1 game 0 goals SFC Reserves 5 games 3 goals – after missing much of the pre season due to personal family reasons the club had no option but to suspend him until he could attend training again. After showing promise in his five games for the Zebra reserves, he was a last minute inclusion in their seniors last weekend. Still has a way to go and should remain on the rookie list next year when there is every chance that he might fulfill his promise.

HOLLAND, Ben MFC 6 games 3 goals SFC Seniors 5 games 7 goals – apart from a great game when he nullified Collingwood’s Anthony Rocca, Dutchy has struggled at AFL level where he doesn't have the agility or accurate disposal to hurt the opposition in any way. Has showed some good form in recent weeks with the Zebras.

HUGHES, Daniel ® SFC Seniors 4 games 5 goals SFC Reserves 2 games 4 goals – his career has gone into limbo after showing some promise at Sandringham this year. Has missed several weeks with a groin problem.

JAMAR, Mark MFC 5 games 3 goals SFC Seniors 4 games 3 goals SFC Reserves 1 game 0 goals – showed average form as the second ruckman for the Demons before he was dropped to Sandringham where he suffered a hamstring injury. Improving every week at Sandringham and is close to a recall.

JOHNSON, Chris MFC 5 games 0 goals SFC Seniors 8 games 3 goals – had a stellar pre season but failed to impress in his early games and was dropped to the VFL. Returned to form with the Zebras and recently returned to the Melbourne team where he did well in his last game at the Gabba.

JOHNSON, Paul MFC 13 games 2 goals SFC Seniors 1 game 1 goal - grabbed the opportunity in the absence of Mark Jamar and has tightened his grip on the second ruck position in recent weeks.

JOHNSTONE, Travis MFC 11 games 6 goals - was strongly tagged early, worked his way back into form but has been dogged by Achilles heel problems and missed a few games recently.

JONES, Nathan MFC 14 games 7 goals - missed just one game with injury and is a definite rising star among the Demon young guns.

McDONALD, James MFC 15 games 3 goals – struggled early to uphold the high standard he set in 2006 but nevertheless has been a valuable player and one of the few who has taken part in all games.

McLEAN, Brock MFC 8 games 2 goals - another early season casualty, McLean fractured a foot in the opening round. His return game yielded 22 disposals but he had a flat patch for a few weeks before returning to form in a losing side against the Brisbane Lions.

MILLER, Brad MFC 11 games 7 goals SFC Seniors 3 games 8 goals – another player who struggled early at both ends of the ground. A wrist injury saw him out of the team and he had to work hard for a few weeks at Sandringham before getting his call up as a defender against Carlton. Struggled to hold Jonathan Brown last week but will be persisted with in defence.

MOLONEY, Brent MFC 6 games 4 goals SFC Seniors 2 games 0 goals SFC Reserves 1 game 0 goals - was close to Melbourne's best early in the season before a recurrence of groin problems took its toll. Slowly coming back through the VFL and returns for this week's game..

NEAVES, Shane ® SFC Seniors 12 games 2 goals - continues to impress as a developing ruckman at Sandringham and must be a chance for promotion off the rookie list at the end of the year.

NEITZ, David MFC 9 games 18 goals - averaging two goals a game but has missed a games with a knee injury and then a combination of knee, hamstring and broken finger has kept him out more recently. Back this week so he should reach 300 games by year's end.

NEVILLE, Heath SFC Seniors 2 games 0 goals SFC Reserves 9 games 2 goals – has finally had some chances after languishing in the VFL reserves but hasn’t had much game time with the seniors in his two games there.

NEWTON, Michael MFC 3 games 4 goals SFC Seniors 10 games 29 goals – finally got an opportunity after 10 games and 29 goals with the Zebras this season. A player of the future who deserves every opportunity to succeed.

PETTERD, Ricky MFC 9 games 6 goals SFC Seniors 3 games 1 goal - a breath of fresh air, this young recruit showed enormous poise and ability in his nine games before suffering a life threatening collapsed lung during early in the Round 14 game against Carlton. Will not play again until next year.

PICKETT, Byron MFC 4 games 1 goals SFC Seniors 7 games 7 goals SFC Reserves 9 games 2 goals - came into the season unfit, overweight and with family problems. Was suspended and confined to Sandringham for several weeks and failed to impress on his return against the Tigers. Missed his VFL game last week with a shoulder injury.

RIVERS, Jared MFC 3 games 0 goals - a succession of injuries kept the club's most talented defender out of the team for all bar three games. He’s out for the season as a result of a persistent groin problem.

ROBERTSON, Russell MFC 9 games 26 goals SFC Seniors 1 game 4 goals – despite missing several weeks after hurting a knee late in the Round 2 game against Hawthorn, he is the club’s leading goal kicker and played a significant role in the team’s handful of victories this year.

SYLVIA, Colin MFC 11 games 10 goals SFC Seniors 1 game 3 goals –is starting to show the form that made him a high draft pick in 2003 as he shrugs off the effects of groin problems that plagued his early years at the club.

WARD, Daniel MFC 13 games 3 goals SFC Seniors 2 games 0 goals - seized his opportunities with vacancies caused in defence due to injuries and loss of form and while his delivery and decision making is sometimes a problem, he has been a valuable contributor at the club this year.

WARNOCK, Matthew MFC 2 games 1 goal SFC Seniors 10 games 0 goals - has had few opportunities at AFL level but has performed consistently in the tight Sandringham defence.

WEETRA, Isaac SFC Reserves 6 games 1 goal - injured hamstring during the preseason and was due to return when it went again. Then, when he recovered from that, he broke his wrist first up in the Zebra twos. He is back there now but hasn’t set the world on fire just yet.

WHEATLEY, Paul MFC 9 games 3 goals SFC Seniors 1 game 0 goals – after an injury riddled 2006, he again had problems, this time with a shoulder but has cemented his place in the past month or two with some solid performances.

WHELAN, Matthew MFC 5 games 0 goals SFC Seniors 3 games 0 goals – in the wars from the very start when he clashed heads with Luke Ball in Round 1. Later, it was a foot injury and he misses the rest of the season with an ankle problem. His absence in defence is really hurting the team.

WHITE, Jeff MFC 15 games 6 goals – still the club’s number 1 ruckman and capable of some good football but is finding things tougher against the bigger opponents. One of the few Demons to play every game this season.

YZE, Adem MFC 8 games 4 goals SFC Seniors 1 game 2 goals - his remarkable run of 226 consecutive matches dating back a decade ended when dropped to the VFL in Round 2. Was slowly returning to form when injury struck again. A hernia operation will keep him out of football until 2008.

THE GAME

Kangaroos v. Melbourne at Telstra Dome – Sunday 22 July 2007 at 5:10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall: Kangaroos 60 wins Melbourne 83 wins 1 draw

At the Dome: Kangaroos 1 win Melbourne 0 wins

Since 2000: Kangaroos 4 wins Melbourne 7 wins

The Coaches: Laidley 0 wins Riley 0 wins

MEDIA

Fox Sports1 (live from 5:00pm)

RADIO ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Kangaroos to win $1.28 Melbourne to win $3.45

LAST TIME THEY MET Kangaroos 10.19.79 d Melbourne 11.12.78, Round 9, 2007, at MCG

Melbourne suffered its ninth consecutive loss for the season and its third defeat by a goal or less in four weeks. After struggling to kick four goals in the first three quarters the Demons came alive with a rush booting seven goals in the final term and nudging ahead with a couple of minutes to go before the final siren. Their failure to ice the game allowed the Kangaroos in for a goal to Andrew Swallow but the team's improved form signalled that its losing streak was near its end.

THE TEAMS

KANGAROOS

Backs Shannon Watt Michael Firrito Daniel Pratt

Half Backs Glenn Archer Jesse Smith Scott McMahon

Centreline Adam Simpson Brady Rawlings Kasey Green

Half Forwards Brent Harvey David Hale Shannon Grant

Forwards Corey Jones Drew Petrie Djaran Whyman

Followers Hamish McIntosh Daniel Harris Andrew Swallow

Interchange Leigh Brown Ed Lower Eddie Sansbury Jess Sinclair

Emergencies Leigh Adams Leigh Aaron Edwards Lindsay Thomas

In Eddie Sansbury Djaran Whyman

Out : Daniel Wells (knee) Lindsay Thomas (omitted)

New: Djaran Whyman (North Ballarat)

MELBOURNE

Backs Daniel Ward Nathan Carroll James Frawley

Half Backs Paul Wheatley Brad Miller Nathan Brown

Centreline Brad Green James McDonald Clint Bizzell

Half Forwards Simon Godfrey Russell Robertson Matthew Bate

Forwards Colin Sylvia David Neitz Paul Johnson

Followers Jeff White Brock McLean Nathan Jones

Interchange Simon Buckley Chris Johnson Brent Moloney Michael Newton

Emergencies Lynden Dunn Colin Garland Ben Holland

In Brad Green Brent Moloney David Neitz

Out Aaron Davey (suspended) Lynden Dunn Colin Garland (both omitted)

Field umpires

THE VIBE - PART 2 by J.V.McKay

Sunday's combatants each played their last games in different corners of the continent. Both travelled out of their states but only one covered themselves in glory. The Kangaroos had a stirring victory by a mere four points displaying guts, determination and a never say die attitude from the start to defeat Fremantle at Subiaco. Melbourne, on the other hand, suffered a sudden death. It conceded the first eleven scoring shots and, in doing so, gave the Brisbane Lions a 41-point start by the time on period of the first quarter.

The poor starts are not an aberration with Melbourne this year. They are happening with too much regularity and are a major contributor to the "vibe" that I get from the Demons these days. The "vibe" is telling me this year is a debacle and it can't be easily turned around. It's likely that we'll have to wait unti next year.

The Kangaroos have a solid core of players they can rely upon to produce good form consistently every week - players like Glenn Archer, Brent Harvey, Shannon Grant and skipper Scott Simpson who never let you down. The Demons can't even produce a Homer Simpson. There are so many leading players down on form or simply out of the team with suspension that it's almost impossible to even contemplate any consistent form from the players. This happens from game to game and within games from quarter to quarter. You just never know what to expect from Melbourne except that you won't get consistently good form.

This week sees the return of some important members of the leadership group. There's no doubt that the Demons will benefit from the inclusion of the skipper and of Brad Green. Brent Moloney and Ben Holland have been playing well in the VFL and it would not surprise if all four were final inclusions for Sunday evening.

The vibes however, are still telling me that this won't be enough.

The Kangaroos are riding high. They know that a strong win this week will bring a top four finish closer than ever. In many ways, they are in much the same position as Melbourne was 12 months ago: third on the ladder after losing the first three in a row. History also tells us that the Demons lost their next match against a lowly team at the Telstra Dome and thus began a slide that continues to this very day. This won't happen where the Kangaroos are concerned because the "vibe" tells me they are now a genuine premiership contender.

Kangaroos by 17 points

[demonfanjezza 1]

Beautiful read on vibes. Nice work

[Hulett Packard III 166]

Beautiful read on vibes. Nice work

With Neitz, Green and Moloney into the side that's a hellova difference in experience. The vibe's telling me to back the dEES @ $3.45.

[Viney_12 1]

Quality post i enjoyed reading it , the quick running and ability to punish the opposition by turnovers and rebounds are key on the TD. I believe we are in for a sniff both of us are coming of interstate trips and with those guys coming in refreshed you just never know..

[Apocalypse XXXI 243]

Quality post i enjoyed reading it , the quick running and ability to punish the opposition by turnovers and rebounds are key on the TD. I believe we are in for a sniff both of us are coming of interstate trips and with those guys coming in refreshed you just never know..

With the three quality players coming back it will make a difference and we won't roll over in the first quarter this time.

[CHAMP 347]

I think you're right about the Vibe, it has to do with confidence and harmonics. It's a matter of getting the players on the same frequency, all oscillating with the same objective, a bit like matter waves. No, I'm not dreamin'.