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A Day at the Races

Toorak
in Other Sports

Featured Replies

9

Melbourne Cup 2025 Field

3200m Race at Flemington racecourse

Race Time: 3:00 pm

November 4, 2025

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1. Al Riffa (19)

J: Mark Zahra

W: 59kg

$7.00

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COMMENT: The win prior, the form stinks, but last start, the subsequent form has been quite strong. 59kg in a Melbourne Cup…gee it’s going to be an ask. But, Mark Zahra is a gun rider in big races, and Joseph O’Brien is a gun trainer when it comes to travelling horses overseas. He is a definite contender.

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2. Buckaroo (12)

J: Craig Williams

W: 57kg

$10

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COMMENT: The Cox Plate run was full of merit and it took a gun mare in Via Sistina to beat him. The Cox Plate is usually gold for the Melbourne Cup…I just question whether he runs 3200m. I think he does, on the proviso he draws soft. If he can draw inside and bludge in the run, gee I think he’ll run well.

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3. Arapaho (15)

J: Rachel King

W: 56.5kg

$34

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COMMENT: Thought he was cast prior to Bendigo…he might still be cast, but he was the sneaky good run in the race and we saw that sneaky good run at Bendigo win the race last year. Could I back him to win? No. But I can see him sneaking into the top ten.

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4. Vauban (2)

J: Blake Shinn

W: 56.5kg

$23

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COMMENT: Thought he was right on track after an excellent return in the Chelmsford. Luckless in The Metropolitan but the Caulfield Cup run worries me. He has won at 3382m previously but for mine, I don’t think he stay at the top level, and has failed twice previously in the race. Not for me.

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5. Chevalier Rose (5)

J: Damian Lane

W: 55.5kg

$41

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COMMENT: D Lane has a great record with the stable/connections in big races, both locally and overseas. It is clear that this horse that needs a rock hard track. With the Melbourne weather, no idea. If he gets conditions to suit, he’s the best each way gamble in the race. If there is rain and we get a wet track, I say he’ll struggle.

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6. Presage Nocturne (9)

J: Stéphane Pasquier

W: 55.5kg

$8.50

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COMMENT: I think he’s the one from the Caulfield Cup. He wasn’t ready from a mounting yard perspective, trip short of his best and on a dry-ish track. He’s okay on a dry track, but on wet ground, he’ll absolutely thrive and run all day. If the rain comes, I’ll be keen to back each way.

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7. Middle Earth (13)

J: Ethan Brown

W: 54.5kg

$41

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COMMENT: Blinkers went on at Moonee Valley and he ran okay, but that race was terrible. I actually think he’s a 1600m/2000m max in time. He looks like he has a lethal turn of foot in slowly run races but when the distances increase, he lacks stamina to my eye. Goes through to the keeper.

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8. Meydaan (22)

J: James McDonald

W: 54kg

$21

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COMMENT: I am fairly certain J Mac will ride a better race on this guy vs Atzeni. He brings very strong form lines from the UK and does give the impression of being fine at 3200m. How much did the Caulfield Cup take out of him? Not sure, but I am not dismissing him.

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9. Absurde (4)

J: Kerrin McEvoy

W: 53.5kg

$19

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COMMENT: Normally I pen horses who have previously failed in the race. Would a win shock with this guy? No, and he will be included in all exotic plays because he will stay all day and handles wet ground. I think he is the best each way chance in the race.

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10. Flatten The Curve (17)

J: Thore-Hammer Hansen

W: 53kg

$20

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Now

COMMENT: Hard to knock his numerical form in 2025. He has really come on the last 6-12 months. But I just don’t think there is enough substance in his form to say he’s going to threaten. If he wins, too good, but he goes through to the keeper for me.

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11. Land Legend (16)

J: Joao Moreira

W: 53.5kg

$61

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COMMENT: Start of the prep, I thought he was a serious contender for the Melbourne Cup. But he did nothing in the Turnbull and was worse in the Caulfield Cup. Waller will need to weave some all time magic to get this horse to bounce back.

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12. Smokin’ Romans (11)

J: Ben Melham

W: 53.5kg

$61

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COMMENT: Was kept safe in betting in this race in 2022 and was okay. He hasn’t really captured that sort of form since and his efforts this time in suggest he’s nowhere near the level required to figure in the finish. He is one I am more than happy to pen.

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13. Changingoftheguard (24)

J: Tim Clark

W: 53kg

$71

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COMMENT: Rough outside top ten chance at his best and while he was luckless in The Metropolitan, he was poor at Geelong and while he’ll be on speed, he won’t be beating many home.

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14. Half Yours (8)

J: Jamie Melham

W: 53kg

$7.50

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COMMENT: I want to pen him because he has been in work forever and I reckon there was just a couple of signs at Caulfield that perhaps he might want the paddock. But when the horse is racing as well as he is, connections have to give the horse his chance. Great narrative if he wins, and of course he can win. But I won’t be backing him to win. He will go in exotics.

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15. More Felons (23)

J: Tommy Berry

W: 53kg

$41

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COMMENT: I think two miles will suit him ideally and rain won’t hurt his cause. I don’t think he’s good enough to win but I can see him running top ten because his run in The Metropolitan was a beauty.

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16. Onesmoothoperator (6)

J: Harry Coffey

W: 53kg

$31

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COMMENT: Prince Of Arran 2.0 this guy. Just a fair horse in the UK but when in Australia, he is just a different/better horse. The Moonee Valley Gold Cup win was brilliant and on a dry track, he’d be a clear top pick for me. But with the rain forecast, I think you have to pen him because he just doesn’t go a yard on wet ground, and that’s not just me, that is connections saying that as well.

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17. Furthur (7)

J: Michael Dee

W: 52kg

$26

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COMMENT: He’s a nice horse I think, for the future. Not sure he is good enough to take out the big one here though and from what I’ve seen in replays, he looks a horse that needs more time to fill out his frame. Not for me here.

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18. Parchment Party (3)

J: John Velazquez

W: 52kg

$61

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COMMENT: As I said, great narrative that he’s here being an American horse. He will chip away and stay…but if he’s winning the Melbourne Cup, the race is in big trouble. Got no chance IMO.

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19. Athabascan (1)

J: Declan Bates

W: 51.5kg

$71

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COMMENT: I think he does race best on wet ground and did show signs of life at Moonee Valley last start. But I think overall, he’s not going well enough to threaten.

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20. Goodie Two Shoes (20)

J: Wayne Lordan

W: 51.5kg

$41

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COMMENT: Needs a dry track to be any sort of chance, even then I’d have her at top ten. But if the rain comes, I say she is going to struggle, though I will say, that even on wet ground, she won’t know herself with 51.5kg on her back.

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21. River Of Stars (14)

J: Beau Mertens

W: 51.5kg

$16

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COMMENT: Does one run cancel the rest of the prep, which was pretty poor. Yes, very good in the Caulfield Cup, down in the weights, think 3200m is okay for her…just can’t see her winning. Another that is a top ten contender, a rough place chance.

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22. Royal Supremacy (21)

J: Robbie Dolan

W: 51kg

$26

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Now

COMMENT: If you knew he was going to relax in the run, you’d back him with confidence. I think he has got the ability to win the race but unless you’re a freak, you can’t pull over 3200m and expect to win.

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23. Torranzino (18)

J: Celine Gaudray

W: 51kg

$31

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Now

COMMENT: I think a wet track is what he needs because he lacks the brilliance of others, but even on a dry track, I think he’ll measure up. Incredible effort in the Bart Cummings and I think was arrogant in the Geelong Cup. Right down in the weights, he’ll be strong late, he likes Flemington…I think he’ll run an absolute beauty.

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24. Valiant King (10)

J: Jye McNeil

W: 51kg

$9.00

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COMMENT: Prior to the Bart Cummings

Edited by Macca

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