AFL Round 17

[45HG 1,539]

The pointy end

North Melbourne v Carlton

Form: Strange v Below the mark

Head to head: North with 8 of the last 10 (the last 4 have been split)

Roos' favour: Who knows? They love this ground, they love this night and they set themselves for the Blues especially. When up, they can trouble any side, but getting ahead isn't exactly North's problem.

Blues' favour: Likewise. Enough good players to be troubling, not enough form or consistency to be damaging. Still so much depends on Waite.

Verdict: North really do set themselves for this game and there'll be no stepping of the pedal on Friday night. That said, Carlton have been a handful for every side they've faced this year. Evenly matched in the middle, North may hold the aces up forward. Much will depend on the form and presence of Henderson and Waite. Overall, North should have too much desire, hardness and class for the Blues but it won't be all one-way traffic (unless Petrie does what he did last year). Keep a close eye on North's team list, however, as a few important players appear on their injury list.

Tip: North by 15

Hawthorn v Bulldogs

Form: Great away from the Cattery v A better recent 9 quarters

Head to head: Hawks with the last 4

Hawks' favour: They're not playing Geelong.

Dogs' favour: Showed last week that they can put in a reasonably plucky performance.

Verdict: This could be anything...over 40 points for the Hawks. The Dogs have a few handy goal-kickers but this poster is tired of labelling the keys to the Dogs side that pretty much gets proven week after week (with the recent addition of Libba). Should the Hawks be bothered, this could be 100 - but I wouldn't tip it.

Tip: Hawks by 57

GWS v Essendon

Form: Disgusting v Flying high

Head to head: Bombers 2-0

Eye on the Giants: It was this fixture where GWS put in one of their better showings of the year early on in 2013. At home and with enough distraction around the Bombers, they might be able to spring a mild surprise. Unfortunately, their players seem disinterested. Their good players aren't playing well and their young players seem to be having the "second year blues."

Eye on the Bombers: They're getting the job done. Interestingly, of their 12 wins only 1 has been by over 46 points. The form of their guns is impressive and it'll be a similar story to the early fixture - how much they're interested.

Verdict: I don't feel that the Bombers will be particularly interested. I also don't think it will matter. Some people adore stats, some people hate them. I'm a fan. Especially when they look like this.

GWS have played at Skoda 10 times. They have 1 win and 9 losses. That's not a surprise. This might be.

They've lost their last 4 by 369 points. At 92.25.

All up they've lost their 9 by 714 points. An average of 79.33.

In 10 games they've lost at their home ground by over 100 points 4 times.

The Bombers turned up completely disinterested last time, trailing by 5 goals early in the third. They won by 40, winning less than a half by 70.

Tip: Bombers by 93

Gold Coast v Collingwood

Form: Falling v Rising

Head to head: Collingwood 2-0

Eye on the Suns: An impressive season looks to be falling apart at the seams. After sitting at 5-6 at the halfway mark of the season, the Suns have lost their past four. It must be noted, however, that they have been close to the mark in each of those matches (a big difference to the other sides linked with the Suns toward the bottom of the ladder). Gary Ablett must play for the Suns to have a chance - not only for his ball-winning abilities but also his ever-improving goal-scoring prowess.

Eye on the Pies: They're coming. After a much less than impressive season, the past few weeks have highlighted Collingwood's ability to win and (all going their way) finish high on the ladder. Whilst they've never played 4 full quarter this whole season, they've done enough in patches to show that they can be handy. Putting those full matches together is vital but they'll have a couple of weeks which they'll view as percentage-boosting opportunities. A dangerous thought.

Verdict: Collingwood would like to think they're flying. I'm not convinced. They have generally beaten the teams below them unconvincingly and lose to the teams above them. Gold Coast are below them and the Pies have too much to play for, but it won't be all one way traffic (unless Pendlebury and Swan can continue their re-emergance). I think this will be an intriguing match but Collingwood will have too much firepower. If they play 4 quarters, it could be disaster for the Coasters.

Tip: Collingwood by 27

St Kilda v Port Adelaide

Form: Unimpressive v Tough to Read

Head to head: Last 4 split 2-2

Eye on the Saints: They haven't really been blown away this year but they've been regularly beaten by pretty much every side they've come up against. Their losses haven't been embarrassing but they've had an air of inevitability about them. Added to that is that two of their three wins have been agains the Dees and the Giants and it adds up to a depressing season for Saints fans. Having said that - they're the sort of team you know has one last yelp and an at-times flaky Port at their home ground could be a perfect opportunity.

Eye on the Power: They're a better side than the Saints, have the world to play for and an important in in Justin Westhoff. It's exactly the type of script that ends in a Power loss. After winning their first 5, they inexplicably lost their next 5. 3 wins in a row have been followed by disappointing efforts the last two weeks. If they're on, they'll be tough to beat - especially as they don't mind the ground. However, if they're slightly off, expect the Saints to come at them hard and continuously.

Verdict: Flip of a coin. Earlier in the week I thought that Port were outrageous value. The more I think about it, the more I see this as a plucky Saints outing that captures an out of sorts Port Adelaide. Whether they can do enough to get the points, however, is another matter. It'll be close.

Tip: Saints by 8

Melbourne v Brisbane

Form: Trash v Decent

Head to head: Lions with the past 3 - Dees with the previous 3

Eye on the Demons: Honestly, what to make of this mob? Every time they threaten to improve or show some intensity and skill that seems AFL standard they turn around and kick you in the face. Even in their most recent win, they were inches away from giving away an impossibly lead. Having said that, I'm not sure how much can be read into last week's game. Geelong at Geelong in the howling win and rain is easily the toughest gig in footy. The three weeks before that they were OK. Viney for Nicholson is handy.

Eye on the Lions: Likewise, what to make of the Lions? They've beaten two of the best teams in the comp. They've been thumped by one of the worst. That said, their formline for the most, since a slow start, has gone to script (save for a ridiculous 20 minutes of footy). I can't get a read on the Lions.

Verdict: This could be a strange, strange game. The Lions only beat the Dees by 28 points earlier on - but it should have been much, much more. That said, Melbourne are an improved side since that day and they set themselves for this match. Improved possession count will be advantageous up North and it'll be interesting to see if the Dees' pressure and intensity at the ball-carrier can continue. Overall, the Lions should have too much class through the middle and should see it tick over on the scoreboard. If the Dees can generate some ball out of the middle, they could be tricky to handle.

Tip: Lions by 23

Richmond v Fremantle

Form: Very good aside from the blip v Very good

Head to head: Dockers with the last 2, Tigers with the previous 3

Eye on the Tigers: Back on the winners list after a poor outing, this is the biggest test of Richmond's season to date. A win here puts them right amongst the big boys and they got as close as you can without taking home points last time these sides met. Without Ballantyne and Pavlich, Richmond will enter the game confident that Freo's miserly defence may be negated by their own inability to score - keeping the potent Tigers in the match the whole way.

Eye on the Dockers: They've entered a mode where they are just getting the points. The last two weeks have seen them struggle for 3 before powering away. Ballantyne kept them in the game a fortnight ago and Pavlich sealed the win last week - neither will play this weekend. Freo have not played at the G all year - but this was the case last year when they rolled the Tigers as underdogs.

Verdict: Both teams will be primed for this. A loss leaves the Tigers out of home finals contention but a win would have them in touch with the top 4. A win for Freo almost guarantees a top 4 finish. This game is hard to read. Freo should be too well-drilled for Richmond but it's hard to go against the Tigers at the G (though they haven't been as good as usual there) with their mighty army behind them. Whilst they've looked good for most of the season, the Tigers haven't beaten a really good side (indeed at times looked inept). Toss a coin and then probably pick the opposite - this could be anything but it'll be great to watch.

Tip: Dockers by 5

Adelaide v Geelong

Form: Irrelevant v Irreverent

Head to head: 3-3 over the last 6

Eye on the Crows: I think they've been deceptively OK. They've pushed the Hawks at home all the way and were very competitive last weekend only to be hard done by on the scoreboard. No Dangerfield is massive. So massive it makes the rest of their review just as irrelevant as they are this season.

Eye on the Cats: What can you say about this mob? They just get better and better. For every weakness they find, they spend a fortnight (or less) turning it into a strength. Their defence is the latest evidence of this. Big ins for the Cats also strike fear into Crows' hearts.

Verdict: The Cats are simply too good at football. Adelaide have too much pride for an absolute shellacking, but you never know with Geelong. Adelaide gave the Cats a spanking last year - it will not be repeated.

Tip: Cats by 43

West Coast v Sydney

Form: OK v Building

Head to head: The one time massive rivalry has seemingly ended - Swans with the past 6

Eye on the Eagles: West Coast appear a team in an adjustment phase. Whether that includes adjusting between coaches is yet to be seen but, whatever the case, they are not the team they were. Basically, they've beaten up on trash and, on the other hand, have an 0-7 record against top 8 sides. Strangely, their previous fortress has turned to rubble. At Patersons, West Coast have a 2-6 record. Similar to St Kilda, in a way, in that I feel they have one left giant-killing display in them. Too many good players not to knock off a good side.

Eye on the Swans: Looking ominous, the Swans flexed their muscle last week against their hapless neighbours. Aside from their losses to the league's best two teams, the Swans' only loss has come against a frenetic Port Adelaide comeback. Their tough midfield is a joy to watch and Tippett, if he can get his kicking right, looks ominous.

Verdict: Whilst I feel the Eagles have a lot of talent and some handy ins, Sydney seem to have the wood over them, too much grunt, a solid gameplan and a hell of a lot to play for. Nonetheless, it's alway hard to discredit West Coast at home and they still have a finals chance.

Tip: Sydney by 19

Game of the Round: Some handy matches but I think I'll have to go with 5 versus 6 Richmond Freo.

Thrashing of the Round: Bombers

Upset of the Round: Tough! Saints? Eagles? Dockers? Dees???

Closest tip last week: Missed the Hawks by 2.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,654]

45HG - as always a more interesting analysis than that provided by the mainstream media. Well done.

[Forest Demon 4,681]

Yeah, nice one mate. A good read.

[45HG 1,539]

Is this the match no one wants to win? I can't stand Lindsay Thomas. How was his running at the guy kicking out of fullback because he was pre-empting the play on call - forgetting of course that you can pretty much do whatever you like in the goal square within the time limit.

[45HG 1,539]

Yeah, nice one mate. A good read.

45HG - as always a more interesting analysis than that provided by the mainstream media. Well done.

Thanks team.

[45HG 1,539]

Crazy round of footy.

North Carlton with an insane finish.

Suns roll the Pies.

Saints come flying home but fall short against Port.

Tigers make finals.

Taylor and Bartel miss sitters in the dying seconds to lose a 30 point lead against the Crows.