NUMBERS UP

[Demonland 21,008]

NUMBERS UP by Sam the Stats Man

The numbers don't lie.

Bar the first quarter (which it won by 3 points) and the third quarter (which it drew), it was a horror night for the Demons. In fact, I'll describe it as "mean average" which in the language of the statistician means "bloody awful". 

Demon recruit of the decade Mitch Clark was one of my few highlights when he sent flutters through the hearts of the Hawks' fans early in the evening kicking three great goals despite starting in the ruck. At one stage, his team's score was almost double that of the opposition so that those in the crowd who believed in miracles were becoming enthralled at the possibility of a boilover. Miraculous, because when the Demons led late in the opening term they had half the number of their opponents' possessions and trailed in almost every statistical category available bar the one that matters - the scoreboard. 

Unfortunately, I can vouch for the fact that miracles in the AFL are a statistical impossibility. This was borne out forty minutes after Clark had booted his third goal when the half time siren sounded, at which time the Hawks had added a further 7.8.50 to the Demons' 0.2.2 (from three shots of which .666 of them were from sitters in front of the big sticks). Clark was still Melbourne's sole goalkicker.

The AFL was certainly not pleased. I have it on good authority from a mate who counts the numbers of television sets switched onto the football, that the ratings plummeted as half time approached. He maintains that five minutes into the third term more people were watching part three of a doco on SBS about some long march to freedom than there were viewing the footy. However, the long march failed to beat the Demons' performance on the Bureau of Statistics absolute rubbish index which rated 99.9% in the final term.

There weren't all that many stars in the Melbourne line up other than Clark. James Magner, Clint Bartram, Nathan Jones and Mark Jamar all put their hands up from time to time but too many of their teammates seemed indifferent to the task at hand. As usual there was little run and spread for the ball and the Hawks beat Melbourne for skill and execution.

For the most part, they basically did as they pleased and too many Demons simply failed to produce the goods. Colin Sylvia (6 disposals in 85% of game time), Jamie Bennell (4 - 91%) and Ricky Petterd (5 - 84%) had statistics that were barely better than the spectators in the stands. (And yes, I'm fully aware from my observations of what many Demon supporters were doing in the latter part of the game that many of them barely made it to 75% of game time!)

For all of the coach's pre season talk about Melbourne becoming a harder team to beat, there is one absolutely damning statistic (among many available from this game) and that is scores from stoppages which Hawthorn won 8.8.56 to 0.4.4. That with a ruck division which had 31 hit outs to 26 on the night but whose hit outs to advantage were half that of the opposition. Therein lies 92% of the problem. A systemically dysfunctional on ball division. 

Melbourne 3.3.21 3.5.23 5.11.41 6.13.49

Hawthorn 2.6.18 8.12.60 10.18.78 15.25.115

Goals 

Melbourne Clark 3 Howe McKenzie Magner

Hawthorn Franklin 3 Puopolo Young 2 Breust Hale Rioli Roughead Savage Smith Suckling 

Best

Melbourne Clark Magner Jones Jamar Howe Frawley 

Hawthorn Lewis Burgoyne Shiels Birchall Savage Sewell Whitecross Suckling

Injuries 

Melbourne Garland (leg)

Hawthorn Osborne (knee)

Changes

Melbourne Nil

Hawthorn Nil

Reports

Melbourne Nil

Hawthorn Nil

Umpires Findlay Rosebury Bannister 

Crowd 36,430 at MCG

[thaipantsman 180]

NUMBERS UP by Sam the Stats Man

The numbers don't lie.

Bar the first quarter (which it won by 3 points) and the third quarter (which it drew), it was a horror night for the Demons. In fact, I'll describe it as "mean average" which in the language of the statistician means "bloody awful".

Demon recruit of the decade Mitch Clark was one of my few highlights when he sent flutters through the hearts of the Hawks' fans early in the evening kicking three great goals despite starting in the ruck. At one stage, his team's score was almost double that of the opposition so that those in the crowd who believed in miracles were becoming enthralled at the possibility of a boilover. Miraculous, because when the Demons led late in the opening term they had half the number of their opponents' possessions and trailed in almost every statistical category available bar the one that matters - the scoreboard.

Unfortunately, I can vouch for the fact that miracles in the AFL are a statistical impossibility. This was borne out forty minutes after Clark had booted his third goal when the half time siren sounded, at which time the Hawks had added a further 7.8.50 to the Demons' 0.2.2 (from three shots of which .666 of them were from sitters in front of the big sticks). Clark was still Melbourne's sole goalkicker.

The AFL was certainly not pleased. I have it on good authority from a mate who counts the numbers of television sets switched onto the football, that the ratings plummeted as half time approached. He maintains that five minutes into the third term more people were watching part three of a doco on SBS about some long march to freedom than there were viewing the footy. However, the long march failed to beat the Demons' performance on the Bureau of Statistics absolute rubbish index which rated 99.9% in the final term.

There weren't all that many stars in the Melbourne line up other than Clark. James Magner, Clint Bartram, Nathan Jones and Mark Jamar all put their hands up from time to time but too many of their teammates seemed indifferent to the task at hand. As usual there was little run and spread for the ball and the Hawks beat Melbourne for skill and execution.

For the most part, they basically did as they pleased and too many Demons simply failed to produce the goods. Colin Sylvia (6 disposals in 85% of game time), Jamie Bennell (4 - 91%) and Ricky Petterd (5 - 84%) had statistics that were barely better than the spectators in the stands. (And yes, I'm fully aware from my observations of what many Demon supporters were doing in the latter part of the game that many of them barely made it to 75% of game time!)

For all of the coach's pre season talk about Melbourne becoming a harder team to beat, there is one absolutely damning statistic (among many available from this game) and that is scores from stoppages which Hawthorn won 8.8.56 to 0.4.4. That with a ruck division which had 31 hit outs to 26 on the night but whose hit outs to advantage were half that of the opposition. Therein lies 92% of the problem. A systemically dysfunctional on ball division.

Melbourne 3.3.21 3.5.23 5.11.41 6.13.49

Hawthorn 2.6.18 8.12.60 10.18.78 15.25.115

Goals

Melbourne Clark 3 Howe McKenzie Magner

Hawthorn Franklin 3 Puopolo Young 2 Breust Hale Rioli Roughead Savage Smith Suckling

Best

Melbourne Clark Magner Jones Jamar Howe Frawley

Hawthorn Lewis Burgoyne Shiels Birchall Savage Sewell Whitecross Suckling

Injuries

Melbourne Garland (leg)

Hawthorn Osborne (knee)

Changes

Melbourne Nil

Hawthorn Nil

Reports

Melbourne Nil

Hawthorn Nil

Umpires Findlay Rosebury Bannister

Crowd 36,430 at MCG

So what's the answer???

[H_T 2,860]

The title suggests motive as well as about stats.

Seven games in...inappropriate.