I don't, it's an educated guess on a hypothetical scenario.
But consider the perceived trade value here at peak Oliver and current Oliver.
2022 Oliver: Age 25, 3x AA (selected 2022), 4xBnF (won 2nd yr in a row), 2nd x AFLCA (won 2nd yr in a row).
What would clubs have to pay for him here?
Then consider 2024 Oliver: multiple off field scandals, major drop off in form for well over a year, 1mil + 6yr risk a club would be taking on.
Given there are articles suggesting clubs think they can get him on the cheap (take with a grain of salt), then I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that selling Oliver now would be right at he's lowest value.
Guess he can always go further off the rails, have further injury interruptions and form issues next year and therefore would be lower value next year.
As for Petracca, I only really included him as the only clubs that could satisfy our demands would be Richmond, West Coast or North and he's not going to consider any of them. If he goes to Carlton then we are going to get unders for him.
Get Oliver back into AA form and 12 months for clubs to get the assets required for Petracca and we'll get a much better trade outcome next year. That is if they want out and we decide to move them on.
Personally, I hope we keep them both for the entirety of their contract with both player returning to their best footy.
All my subjective opinion of course.