binman

That's partly true. But i reckon a big factor in the pies run in close game is opponents thinking the pies will run over them. They have won so many games where their opponent has been well on top and essentially chocked. Just this season alone, off the top of my head I can think of the crows game at the g, Port this round just gone and the saints.

Snap.

100% agree we are still experimenting with our line up and method and managing players. In fact i think this touches on perhaps the two biggest changes to how we have gone about things this season - way more experimentation (positional, personnel, fitness program, prep for games eg staying in Geelong - and most of all method) and taking a squad metaility (and the related managing of players and dropping them to Casey - being dropped is not the death knell to a player's chances of returning to the ones it was in 2021 or 2022). But I actually think we need to have our best 23, and the method we want to run with in the finals locked in by the blues game, so we have three games to get it all working how we want it to (i was thinking even the previous week, but that's against the roos and it's in Tassie, so it will be strange game and not really one conducive to practicing the systems and method we want to use in the finals). I don't think one game is enough to bed down systems and method and have the best 23 build synergy. On the best 23, assuming the players are not injured, this is my best guess at Goody will run with come finals (as opposed to what i think should be the lineup): FB Lever May McVee HB Rivers Petty Salem Centre Hunter Oliver Langdon HFF Neale-Bullen Brown Spargo FF Pickett Fritsch Chandler FOLL Gawn Viney Petracca INT Grundy Bowey Sparrow Brayshaw SUB Smith The obvious player missing out in that team is JVR. It would be a big call, but atm, for all the excitement he brings, he is not impacting games enough and he's still a fair way off being able to hold down a key tall forward role in the heat of, say, a prelim final. Which by the way is perfectly fine - he has only just turned 20 and he is at least 3 or 4 seasons away from being the finished product. If Brown isn't where he needs to be come finals in terms of fitness, strength etc then JVR comes in.

I might well be wrong, but i think it does factor in pressure.

That's interesting. I hadn't seen the expected scores, but my guess would have been they were head on expected scores. I don't know what the half time expected score was, but going on this half time info from from the timeline on the AFL app, surely the Crows must have been up at half time on expected scores The accuracy of Melbourne has separated these teams in the first half. Adelaide has scored 0.6 from shots at goal in the 30-50 metre range and Melbourne has scored 4.1 from equivalent shots at goal. The Crows lead 14-10 in shots at goal (including misses)

Yeah, rankin out has certainly dinted my confidence in a crows win a bit. And to be honest I had forgotten about rachelle (geez he would have made a difference yesterday with his class around goals - I'd be filthy with him if I was a crows fan). But I'm still confident they'll roll them. And the reason why is the same reason they really tested us yesterday - their ball movement, clearly modelled on they of the pies, really exposes defensive systems and i reckon Port's defence is their biggest weakness. And I reckon the crows have a good defensive system, which is very much modelled on ours. And they will do good job of negating port's offence.

Agree with all of the above. Not suggesting you are saying the pies are a dynastic team, but the ridiculous hyperbole around the pies has created this equally ridiculous expectation the flag is theirs for the taking. Yes, they are an exceptional team, as evidenced by their brilliant home and away record this season and last. But are they a great team? Not even close. Great teams have a body of work and results they can point to as evidence of greatness. The pies might become a great team, but facts are facts. There are three other serious contenders for the flag. They have only beaten one of them (by way of contrast we have beaten two, including the pies). They have played three finals and lost two. The best you could say in terms of evidence of greatness is, after a dominant home and away season, they will finish top this year and will have back to back top 4 finishes. I'm not saying we are a great team, but we have much better claims to greatness. A flag in 2021, second after the home and away season in 2022 and top 4 again in 2023 (and I think a real chance to finish second again if the crows beat port). And on dynastic teams, the 2018 tigers provide an interesting comparison. The 2018 tigers team also had a dominant season, losing only four games for the season and finishing well on top. The pies will likely lose even fewer games, which is very impressive, and they deserve enormous credit for their consistently high level of performance. Impressive. The difference is the tigers were the reigning premiers, so actually had a claim to greatness. And as we all know that team DID become a great team, a dynastic team, going on to win the 2019 and 2020 flags to add to their 2017 flag. But despite their dominance, and being hailed as all but unbeatable come finals (they 1.70 to win the flag right before the finals commenced), they didn't win the 2018 flag. They didn't even make the GF! In 2018, the two teams that did contest the flag, the Eagles and ironically the pies, finished the home and away season 2nd and 3rd on the ladder having won two and three fewer games respectively than the tigers. By the by, an interesting stat from that year is despite winning two more games than any other team, the tigers only had the second most points for - 2143. Who had the most that season? The dees with 2239 points for. And that despite winning four less games than the mighty tigers. That was goody's second season as senior coach and is a good reminder of his attacking instincts. I actually see a lot of similarities between the 2018 dees team and the crows this season. High scoring, aggressive team who can do damage.

Indeed. A team well and truly on the up who you can see consider themselves contenders. They have the players, game plan, sytem and fitness to be one too. I loved Nicks' comments about how they love playing at the g because of its dimensions, jokingly suggesting he is going to ask them to increase the size of Adelaide oval. My take on those comments was nicks was making a point about their running power and fitness levels. A point he was even more explicit about when he said he expected them to run the game out and come at us. Mark my words, they'll beat port next week.

And here I was thinking I'm pretty laconic. Got that wrong.

Sorry.

I really rate jj, but i reckon he gets lost a bit when resting forward. Just doesn't look comfortable as a half forward. Which isnt a problem if he is a full time mid. But he cant be a full time mid if/when koz gets decent midfield minutes because he had to go forward to cover koz - or at least he did today (i guess he could also go to the wing to cover bench time for langers and hunter). When clarry comes back in it may well be at jj's expense, and I'm starting to think he might struggle to cement a spot in the starting 22 this season.

Yes. But agree, he was huge today and is a genuine a grader. And is a big out going forward I really rate the Crows. I think they and the cats are the only teams outside the top 4 with any chance of winning the flag. I just think Port will struggle to come up after last week, a game they would have targeted. And the showdown will be a target game for the crows. That said one less day won't help their cause.

Which is why I think we we will go back to our set up of spargo and nibbler as high half forwards and kozz and chin traditional small forwards (with koz doing bursts in ball). By the by, better to think of nibbler and spargs as wingers not forwards I reckon - less confusing because neither are reallt forwards as such, particularly nibbker - you just have to look at his heat map to get what I mean.

Woey.

Exactly. I think they will beat Port next week, and so also think the 18 point line is well overs.

There were at least 6 or 7 games in the first half of the season where Chandler, Kozzy, Nibbler and Spargs all played - and there would have been more if not for Kozzie's suspension. Not sure why it is suddenly a problem. Woey is not best 22 and will make way for Spargo in the next 2, 3 games tops. And the band will be back together.

Agree. But we are not fully wound up yet, and haven't got our best 22 in yet. Spargs to come back in the next game or two, chin to play closer to goal, brodie back and of course clarry and fritter back too We are two games and percentage clear of 5th, so top 4 is a lock - which really is massive this far put. Premierships are won in September not July. And we are in great shape, poor inside 50 pressure notwithstanding (it's worth noting it was good in the first 9 games, so no reason to think it won't be moving forward).

Reallt great call. I went with a friend who is out from Germany for the world cup, and we were talking about how taking advantage of momentum is critical in both sports. As is stopping the opposition's momentum when they have it. It was all going their way when they levelled the scores, and there was heaps of time on the clock. Brilliant to stave them off and whilst it never felt we really got the momentum back, we stopped theirs.

Kozzie was great, chin worked hard and that love that he took his chances. But he needs to play close to goals (which i expect he will once spargs comes back in), not high half forward. Why? Because with kozzie up around the ball or at half forward, we don't apply enough pressure inside our 50. If we had lost that game It would have been because our pressure inside our 50 was appalling. I think it was 13 tackles inside 50, to our paltry one. It was 10-1 at half time I think. That's not good enough. They won in it back in their front half, and we let them waltz it out of ours.

Weather will clear nicely by game time. Expect a perfect Melbourne winter's day, blue skys and hardly a breath of wind. Only a mll od rain has faen so ground might be a touch slippery, but not sodden.

Betting odds are interesting. Two weeks ago we were fourth favourite, behind the pies, Port and lions. We are now outright second favourite @ 5.50, behind the pies @ 2.75.

Hate to see that. He is star. So good, and his loss is huge on terms of the lions chances of winning the flag because apart from being a gun, his leg speed is critical.

From the article, in regard to our yo yo form in the last 8 weeks: 'That’s not the record of a serious premiership threat, particularly when compared to the Magpies' Dies Pierek's memory not go back two seasons? Given his cycling analogy, you might think he might have pointed to our 2021 season, and 2022 for that matter, and pondered whether our efforts to peak at exactly the right time is a feature not a bug. At least ponder if trying to peak at the right time is goody's modus operandi? After a dominant first half of the 2021 the season, we had the almost identical run of yo yo wins and losses in the same block of games and we were more than a 'premiership threat'. We won the flag in 2021 on the back of winning our last four home and away games and then playing what many called the most dominant finals ever. The pattern was almost exactly the same last year - the difference being how tough our last few games were in terms of the opponents we faced and the intense, finals like pressure of those game because of the stakes. When it came time for the final summit, we were gassed. The flag was won by a team copying our approach, who were able to win games in the middle part of the season (aided by their massive home ground advantage). And maybe pierek might have looked a bit further back for a historical guide to test his hypothesis that a dominant home and away season equals being a serious premiership threat. The last time a team was as dominant as the pies are this year in terms of the win loss ratio was the tigers in 2018. The 2018 tigers were even more dominant than the the pies this year, as evidenced by their much higher percentage. They entered the 2018 finals series at a prohibitive 1.70 to win the flag. And didn't even make the grand final, let alone win it, getting bundled out in the prelim against, you guessed it Jon - the pies. In the wash up of that season, hardwick pondered if they had been up too long. That would have been something pirek might have at least touched on in his article. Stretching the cycling analogy, winning the Giro d'talia (the McClelland Trophy) is nice. But the goal is to win the Tour de France (the flag). History suggests winning both is possible (dees say hi), but very rarely happens.

The pies are a fantastic team . We beat them and were clearly the better team on the day. The lions flogged them. We just beat the lions. Port are a fantastic team. They beat us in very similar wet, tough conditions at Adelaide oval. But it was the mirror image of that game last night - like Port we lost a game by the slimmest of margins that we should have won, and would have if we kicked accurately. If you rate the pies and Port, on OBJECTIVE form, it is logically inconsistent not to also rate the dees. Great game last night. But I saw nothing that changed my view the pies have vulnerabilities and that we are very well placed to exploit them. And nothing to dint my confidence that we will win the flag.

Yep. Project get Reid. We would have some forward line in five years, with JVR, who will he be a best by then, Jefferson hitting his straps and Reid on the rise. The Eagles need to inject mutiple first round picks to jump start their development. And even if the talk about Reid telling the Eagles he doesn't want to play there is bollocks there's always the risk of a country boy wanting to come back home to Victoria.