binman

99 problems Clayton Oliver coming back in ain't one. Are these dudes for real?

So dramatic. Like a football telanova. Last chance saloon is on my bingo card.

I'm guessing smith sub and hibbo into the starting 22. Wet night, don't need 3 talls down back given McKay is out. Hibbo can crack in. Smithy injected forward or back late in the third, depending on where needed.

Does your dog eat chips?

Discarded ruckman? Where did they find him? Behind the couch?

Put in on the dees to beat the blues. And remember, gamble responsibly.

The list was his top 5 coaches this season. I can't remember exactly his criteria, it was a bit rubbery, but included overcoming injury and list strength, As i noted i get why he would leave out Goodwin - creates some angst and some click worthy content. And for what it's worth I'd have Mcrae top too - he has changed the way the game is played, something normally only premiership winning coaches do (eg Hardwick - and i would argue Goody too) And i would have Voss and Kingsley in my top 5 as well. I wouldn't have Mitchell in my top 5, but i see where he is coming from because i love that Mitchell is trying to develop a game plan that is the benchmark in 5 years time not following the current trend (Mitchell's words). And as Hodge said he took very gutsy gamble cleaning out his team of so many experienced players like Gunston. But leaving Hodge's opinion aside, i really believe that as a broad generalization, Goody doesn't get the respect or credit he deserves, even on this forum. Leaving aside previous years, goody has been brilliant this season: Clear in his messaging (eg it's all about peaking in September, what the dees DNA and game looks like etc) His tactical nous (eg Goody showed the competition how to beat the Pies, not Voss or Mitchell) The changes he has implemented from their post 2022 review (eg player management, less rigid with roles) Player management (eg bringing in Woey to get a taste of AFL footy), Courage (eg dropping Grundy) His preparedness to experiment (eg Petty forward) His push back on silly media narratives (eg the baloney about our 'scoring and connection issues' = by the by, the Pies haven't scored more than 100 points since round 18) The third top 4 finish in three years (no mean feat) And the way it now feels like we have multiple ways we can win, with different methods (eg fast, slow, all about attack, take away oppo strengths etc etc) The value of this approach is now becoming very clear, with the Pies having been worked out to an extent (as we were last year), but having no time to practice i game any significant game plan adjustments Goody has been simply fantastic this season. I understand he won't get the respect and credit he deserves from the media (unless of course we win the flag). But i live in hope he gets the respect and credit he deserves on Demonland. Onya goody

Converting the decimal odds to implied probability. For example, an even money bet is expressed as 2.00 in decimal format (which is what is used in Oz accross by all bookies now. Before we moved to using decimal odds, even money was expressed as 1/1 ie bet one dollar, win and win one dollar. Double your money). An even money bet is 50 50. So 50% probability. Not sure about not ideal, but 28.8% probability of winning our final 3 games indicates will be no easy fea. Expressed another way, we have 72.2% probability of losing one of our last three games. Which is why anyone predicting we will lose one of last 3 games is more likely to be proven correct. We will win our last 3 games, in my opinion. But by the very same logic, the bookies have us at 3.75 to win the flag. I think we should be 3.50 (the pies current odds). And will be if we beat the blues (if we beat the blues, the dees bandwagon - empty 2 weeks ago - will be at capacity). So, aprox the exact same probability of us winning our final 3 games. So we have nearly a 30% chance of winning the flag! We'll all take that every day of the week!

It is amazing. I know you are talking forwards, but to that list we can add clarry, a generational talent, and top 5 in the AFL, for half a season. Petty for half a season. Salem for half a season. And Maxy for 3 games. I heard hodge today on sen. He gave his top five coaches in the afl, using a formula of his own creation (including over coming having key players out injured). His top 5? 1. Mcrae (he mentioned mcstay as a key out) 2. Kingsley 3. Hinkley 4. Mitchell 5. Voss Whateley, who said a couple of times if you dont like the list make your own, said his list had the same names. I get it, controversy creates clicks and that's the purpose of such lists. But c'mon.

Self employed.

Gives me flashbacks to my days desperately trying to find a decent rental to live in

Objective update on the probability of us winning our last three games We have three games to go. The bookies have us at: 1.72 to beat the blues (by the by, prior to our crows win i estimated the price would be 1.70, so pretty close to spot on. What's interesting about the 1.72 price is prior to the last round the bookies had us at 1.60 to win. Why the drift? Punters might have assessed Petty out as a big factor. I don't, or at least not a determinative factor, and as noted in another post i think the price should be 1.65 for this match) 1.21 to beat the Hawks (my estimate last week was 1.40, which i still think is about right, so 1.21 is well unders. Even if we win this week, i very much doubt we will start 1.21) And I'm estimating our price for the Swans game will be 1.70 (which is probably a touch generous. 1.60 is probably more realistic. if we win our next two it may even be as short as 1.50) So 1.72 x 1.21 x 1.70 = 3.53 That translates, after our win over the roos, to the implied probability of us winning our final three games as aprox: 28.6% If we win this week, the implied probability of us wining our our final two games (and therefore our final 8 games) will be aprox: 50% (ie 2.00 or even money in the old)

Yes, that was my little joke (Rumpole of the Bailey). Thanks by the way on the info on Fritter - can't wait to see him back. Surely one of the most underrated players in the AFL given he the top goal scorer in an premiership team and again last year, in team that finished the home and way season in second spot.

Any word on the Bailey?

I reckon you could well be on the money. Grundy is the fascinating one. Seems logical, but Goody was hedging in the post match presser. That said he did say let's take a breath. Assume he will have a presser today, and no doubt the every first question will be about Grindy, so we'll soon know i reckon. But if Smith is sub, as i expect he will be, Hibbo will come into the 22 you'd think. With no Mckay they may decide not to go with a third tall defender. So perhaps no Tomo. And i think Spargo comes back in, if not this week than in the next couple of weeks. If he comes in this week it might be at JJ's expense.

You're fired.

Mmm, I didn't factor that in to my analysis. You're right they have some good looking roosters (though SOS out hurts on that front) And we have quite a few that not even their mothers could like. And we traded the Weed. Dees by 25 plus.

Fair criticism. I plead guilty to making a mountain out of mole hill. But next time clarry, keep walking and mumble something like not today fellas. No harm, no foul. And no report on channel 9 or content for 360.

Missing an apostrophe

I might have missed some, but I don't recall reading any posts that underrate the blues. So them being seriously underrated on here is a stretch. I'd actually argue that you're on rhe money - if anything they are being overrated by some. At least in terms of their chances of beating us As I have noted many times, the betting market for a match provides the best objective relative head to head assessments of teams. The market's assessment is we are the clear favorites for this match @ 1.72. Which, by the by, is shorter than the pies are against the Cats. Which of course doesn't mean the blues won't win. But it does mean the more probable outcome is we will win. I actually would have us a bit shorter, perhaps 1.65. I think the blues are in fact a touch overrated - at least for this match. Whilst they have done really well to win without Kennedy, McKay, Walsh and Cerra, they are big outs, particularly against us. Assuming oliver plays, we have Petty and Fritter our best 22, but i still think we are ahead on the injury front (I'm not sure if durdin and sos are in their best 22? But both have been in their team thru the season). We are in red hot form too, and with our midfield and maxy in great nick, we are very well placed to exploit the absence of Walsh and Cerra (which would be the equivalent of us not having oliver and tracc). They have a very similar game plan to ours - forward half, get territory,win contests. But that works in our favour because over the journey we are the best in those areas (teams with different methods, like the Hawks, crows and lions worry me more because we have to adjust our method more) They have massively improved their transition game. Daniel hoyne posits that is why they have improved so much. Again, we have a better transition game over the journey. The likely wet weather creates a variable. But i don't think it favours one side more than the other. I'm not sure how the blues have gone in the wet, but we have struggled, in large part because it exacerbates our poor foot skills. But we did ok when it got wet against the tigers. Slippery conditions make it harder for curnow, but brings their small forwards into play. The slippery conditions mitigates the loss of Petty, and our small forwards were brilliant last week. We have one really big advantage. The blues have been running out games really well, so are obviously fit. But i dont have a good sense of how fit they are blue relative to us. But I do know we are close to being in top shape, are super fit, and have been stronger for longer in all our games since the saints win. The advantage we have in that space is the blues are coming of two hugely taxing games - physically and psychologically. Their game against the pies was ferocious and intense. And last week, the saints applied incredible pressure and were super hard at it - particularly in the first half. We have seen recently the impact of back to back tough games on the pies and port. Neither team had won since their epic match at AO. And both have looked flattened. We had two tough games against the lions and crows, which made our tigers win even more meritorious. The roos were hard at it last week, but really only for a half. And the game wasn't intense in terms of stakes, build up or a huge crowd going ballistic. And we had the luxury of basically resting our midfield in the last quarter, with maxy, tracc and viney spending most of it sitting on the pine. On top of that, we are likely injecting one of the best 5 players in the competition into our midfield. Clarry might be a bit ring rusty, but he will be fresh and ready to rumble. I think we will win. The line is currently minus 4.5 (meaning we need to win by 5 or more points to cover the line). I think that is too skinny, and would set it at 6.5 (but won't be taking the line on, because there's nothing worse than the dees losing AND also losing money). I have a feeling we could look to make a statement and put the blues back in their box. Under goody, we have always looked to do so against potential contenders and it makes sense to hit the blues because they are def contenders and there is a good chance we might have to play them in the finals. Dees by 30 plus.

Jaded, there seems to be a disconnect. Taking it to heart? As I literally said, I could care less. I put zero store in what he said in terms of thinking it reflected some reality of wether he would play or not. My only point on that front, and it was far from a strident one, was he risked creating some unnecessary confusion. Which the very first, completely reasonable, post from gawndy on the topic, highlighted. As is logical. Not every one is as inside baseball as us, so not everyone knows to completely disregard clarry when he implies he had no idea if he is playing this week - or anything else he said for that matter. And so might be confused when they watch a club video saying he 100% will. Robbo and whately both dismissed what he said because it was wacky. Anyone who knows what clarry is like would too. As I immediately did. Zero fugazi. My point, which i thought was clear is he was under no obligation to stop and answer questions. He CHOSE to do so. And then chose to be rude. Call me old fashioned, but I dislike rudeness or people being impolite. Particularly sports people who live a privileged life getting paid a fortune to live out their dreams. And I'm disappointed clarry, a dees player, was rude. I have seen him do exactly that sort of door stop interview before and NOT be rude. If he were my son, who is only a few years younger than clarry, and he acted like that, i would have told him he should consider pulling his head in and show a bit more respect. And remind him, that like it or not, he is a role model to little kids. I might even remind him if he chooses to stop and talk to the media he should remember he is choosing to represent the club. Again. I get it. He is not a great communicator. He is frustrated. He doesn't like doing media. THEN DON'T STOP AND CHOOSE TO TAKE QUESTIONS. For petes's sake he's mid 20s. A grown adult. Not some 18 year old kid fresh off the farm. He should grow up.

There is a certain level of irony Jaded in you suggesting others are over reacting or making too much out of something.

I'm confused. Which posts led you to that conclusion ie bombshell? Look, I could care less to be honest. My point was that he comes across as a merchant banker and provides zero useful information. In fact provides more confusion. The two people asking questions are just doing their job. Again, why stop and take questions if he didn't want to answer any and was just going to be unnecessarily rude? If you don't like talking about your hammy or to the media, don't. It wasn't a club organised thing. He is the one who chose to stop and take questions. Anyway, as I said I could care less.

Particularly because he made it sound as it was actually very unlike he would play. And richo said he almost certainly would in the club injury vid - which I think (hope) was after the training session, but that wasn't clear either.

Then just don't stop. Plsyers wave off media all the time. I bet he does too.