binman

The bookies essentialy take a commission on each bet made - from mug punters and pros alike. Line bets are always even money. It's a pure 50 50 bet with binary potential outcomes - and bookies expect approximately the same amount placed on each outcome (meaning their 'losses' are covered) In punting an even money bet is expressed as $2.00. I put a dollar on, win the bet, I double my investment and get two dollars back. But lets say I back the dees to make their -6.5 line against port (the current line) - which means they have to win by more than 6 points. But that bet is not paying $2.00. It is paying $1.90. So I put a dollar on the dees. They win. I get $1.90 back. And the bookie essentially gets 10 cents for what is an even money bet. And of course they collect all the money on the peanuts who backed Port to make their line. Happy days. They take even more out on exotics. And the reason they push multis, is one boneheads dreaming of a big play them and two every single bet is similarly shaved. So I multi up and put a dollar on the dees to make their into say the roos to make their line. The dees win, so I have $1.90 at even money into the roos. The roos make their line and it is 1.90 x 1.90. So I collect $3.61. Money for jam. The house doesn't lose. But yes, mug punters represent gravy for the bookies.

There is no right or wrong as such with betting markets. They are simply a market driven expression of the probability of a particualr event occuring. And punting is about making your own assessment of the probability of a certain event occuring and if it dffiers from that of the market betting your assesmsnt is more accurate.

Too bloody right. I have made this point many times, so apologies for the repetition. I'm a punter, but I'm not trying to promote punting. Forget tipsters and so called experts, the line in football betting is by far the best representation of the relative strength of two opponents and the best most accurate predictor of the likely winning and losing margins. It the closest thing to an objective prediction there is. Thousands of individuals all making an assessment on a likely margin. But not pontificating - putting their money where their mouth is. Millions of it. And that includes professional punters, whose money makes up the majority of the betting pool and who only remain pros by being correct more often than not. The line in our game was 42 points. We almost had that covered by the end of the first quarter. Now, some might say we should have therefore won by 100 plus points and smashed past the line. But that is not how footy works. It is rarely so linear. Take last night's blues dogs game. I backed the dogs to win (it was even money, so the line was 0.5 points). I also backed them to win by 40 plus points. Halfway thru the third when the dogs went up by 5 goals and the blues having only scored 1 goal, it looked for all the world like I was going to win both bets - certainly the win. But I know from bitter experience that the more likely scenario is it would go back towards the line. Which it did. And so it was in our game. Having backed the dees at the 42 point line, the bet was seemingly in the bag by half time. But at the start of the last quarter it was well and truly back in play. In fact we had fallen behind it. We ended up beating the line by 2 goals - which is statistically significant. But more the point, leaving aside people's 'feel' for how the game should have played out after half time, it indicates that we surpassed the well informed market prediction of this game. In other words, people's feeling about the game notwithstanding, it was an impressive win - albeit not the greatest watch. It's worth lining up pre game predictions on this site with post game lamentations. Few would have been unhappy with a 54 point win. Some might have even worried we would take them too easily and have a shock loss or a scrappy win. But because we so thoroughly thrashed them up to half time some of the post match commentary suggests the second half was a failure because we didn't double our half time lead or run away with it. Poor in the second half, didn't keep going, exposed our issues, we get smashed in clearances, how could we let the hawks mids dominate yada yada yada. So a 54 point win suddenly becomes a disappointment. But all that happened was the score reverted to the line. As goody said in his presser, it is not possible to keep an AFL team scoreless - every team will have a period in a given match where they get the momentum. And interestingly, we actually only had two less scoring shots in the second half than we did in the first half. Honestly, some people need to get a grip. We have had a VERY tough fixture in terms of travel and breaks between games. And we have gone into two games losing a critical, senior defender right before the game - not to mention losing our most important player for three of our nine games. Seven wins from nine games, with a percentage of 143 - 22 points ahead of the media's darling the pies, all while still experimenting with roles, structures and systems and not looking for perfection. By any measure - well except those used by some dees fans - we are travelling very well. And whilst we travel on a six day break this week, after that we have three consecutive games at the MCG, the bye then play the cats down in Geelong. Meaning we stay in Victoria until round 16 at the beginning of July. So, six weeks without having to travel. The hardest part of the home and away season is behind us after the Port game.

Just started watching the replay. Seriously how the hell do people who get paid to commentate on footy get away with doing do little research or have so little knowledge about teams. About 9:20 left on the clock in the forst q the pressure gauge comes up showing us with a whopping 230. Dunstall says, paraphrasing, wow. Terrific for a club not known for the pressure this year. Seriously? That was 5 mins after Lyon could answer what sort of set shot is Petty? Has he not watched him? Sheesh

And I just listened to the presser and goody was pretty clear he's staying there for the foreseeable future. But I just think as well as he has been performing forward we will need a third elite tall down back come finals against rhe best teams.

I know goody said that petty will be playing forward for the next few weeks, but I think he'll ultimately go back.

He was awesome today.

We need another tall. From comments by goody it sounds like BB is a ways of being in the right shape. Probably explains why tmac was an emergency to cover JVR if needed. And I'm not convinced tmac is in optimal shape either. I could imagine them bringing Smith in. I've always thought playing forward is the best role to best take advantage of his strengths. His athleticism, speed off the mark and leap means he is well placed to bring the ball to ground in marking contests and win ground balls. And he has good hands and is a really good set shot, including from distance. Playing forward also mitigates his weaknesses, that conversely were exposed down back, in particular his sometimes questionable footy iq and shaky defensive skills. But down forward he is a bit freer to just go for it and fly for everything. Maybe they bring Smith in and give tmac and bb another few weeks, inclusive of the bye, to get cherry ripe for the back end of the season.

I started going to the footy regularly by myself (ie without parents) in 1979. The 80s, 90s and the first 15 years of 2000 and into the were a nightmare in terms of dees v hawks games. So many hammeringd. So many games where the hawks seemed to take pleasure in bullying us. And the hawks fans increasingly were more painfully smug and dismissive. I remember winning a game against them in i think roos first year as coach. As is my wont, i was very vocal. Though as is also my wont, good natured and never aggro or looking to get into the hawks fans. Which didn't stop a hawks fan, who looked like an accountant, getting triggered and responding to me most of the day. Which mostly involved reminding me of the last 30 years. So it is no surprise that I was increasingly vocal in the expression of my joy as victory looked more and more assured. When it was clear we were going to win, I might have yelled PERCENTAGE! or some such. The hawks fan responded with a comment along the lines of that was the dees final and it was a real pity we wouldn't be meeting them in finals any time soon. Since that point in time the dees and hawks have been going in different directions on the ladder. And so I really hope we spliflicate them today. No mercy. We owe the hawks BIG time.

The answer to question in tbe op can be divined in the ga.e being played right now grass hopper. End of quarter one. The reigning premiers are smashing the lowly tigers in clearances - 10 up in fact. That's a big differential after only one quarter. The tigers are 18 points up.

We'll see. I'm pretty confident he's get his chance. And sooner rather than later.

My dream of Joel Smith dominating up forward in the ones is a step closer to reality!

Oath

quote not edit

New evidence has come to light and after careful review of this information binman finds binman NOT out of line with the crack about there being zero chance of Mr Charles Spargo not getting selected if fit. The first piece evidence comes from a press conference with the Melbourne Football Club senior coach, Simon Goodwin on Tuesday 10 May 2023 that clearly indicates Mr Charles Spargo's non selection in the round seven game against the God Coast Suns WAS in fact fitness related. From 5:58 in the video below: In response to a question about Mr Charles Spargo being in the twos and concussion, Simon Goodwin says: ‘He basically had two weeks out of the game, coming back from concussion we know at times that can be quite challenging. And having two weeks out we wanted to make sure he was 100% right. We brought him back via the VFL, he played incredibly well. He’s an important player for us’. The second piece of evidence is that the Melbourne Football Club has formally advised the AFL that Mr Charles Spargo has been selected to play in the round nine AFL football match against Hawthorn Football Club scheduled for 13 May 2023. Binman advises binman can continue to make posts on the Demonland football fan forum that there is zero chance of Mr Charles Spargo not being selected in any given game IF fit. https://www.melbournefc.com.au/video/1326954/rd-9-media-conference-simon-goodwin?videoId=1326954&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1683677380001

No rooo from all of us. RUUUUUIN! from me.

He has never been reported in either junior or senior football before this.

Of course, happy to play them under the current system But my point is that current sytem is rubbish. Play each team once, alternating home game. Then work out some system to get the additional games for the broadcast deal.

No you're right. Good call. My wife is German and has long since given up correcting people mispronouncing her (very easy to pronounce) name. So i understand how annoying it must be. Mine is dead easy - hard to get binman wrong. Correct pronunciation it is. On the podcast that is. Not at the footy.

So, we can expect there to be a six oppo players suspended every week for missing the ball and instead smashing Max in the back of the head in a marking contest. Really, such utter rubbish.

All good points. For mine, it’s not really a situation of where they play Petty this week. However, we will need our best talls to cover Marshall, Dixon and Finlayson and personally I’d like to see him go back to defence by the Port game. That said that may not be an option now, with the result of the tribunal. But let’s say we win an appeal and JVR plays AND they do move Petty back this week. He replaces Turner down back. Hibbo is good to go, so he comes back in and slots into a defensive rotation with Mcvee, Rivers, Bowey and Gus – none of whom who need to come out. Turner comes our for hibbo then And then there is Spargo. Seemed a good game on paper in the magoos. The bye in the VFL complicates things but I think he plays against Port. And perhaps tgis week too. if so, someone else has to come out. And unfortunately for JJ that might mean he is the sub, pushing Harmes to Casey. But I suspect they might manage some players this week – maybe one or two of runners like Nibbler, Langdon or Hunter. Maybe give Steve may a break before wrestling Dixon the following week. One of these outs creates a spot for Spargs. The question for me is more what the ideal back six week looks like come the back half of the season. And for mine that is Petty, Lever, May, Rivers, Bowey, McVee and Salem (with apologies to Hibbo). Where that leaves Gus I’m not sure, but he is basically a utility who can push back and do some chop out time as a mid and wing. As for our ground ball worries, Salem will help a lot if he is in good nick. And let's hope he is - he's a top 10 player when right. Salem also means Goody can use Mcvee in lock down defensive roles on the medium forwards we struggle with. He is a real competitor. And smart one on one too. Moving forward i hope they target a player to trade in for that role. Who? I've got no idea. I know he's not on the market, but Isaac Quaynor is the sort of player i am thinking of. I'm hoping Deakyn Smith might be able to develop into that sort of player.

He didn't bloody hit him in the head FFS!

Disengage filter.

It's no surprise the dees and the saints are at the top of the scores from turnovers table. Goody and Lyon share the same footy DNA - defence, pressure, contest, forward half footy. Eight rounds is a pretty good sample size so the Saints on top of the turnover table with a 193 differential (14 from us in second) is impressive. As notable though is the fact we are 78 points ahead of the Lions in third and clear on top of the total for scores from turnovers with 512, with Brisbane next on 483. Less impressive for the saints and Lyon's method is being down in 12th for diff scores from stoppages with negative seven. We look good by contrast - 4th differential (42) and 4th total for (305). The Suns are interesting. Sixth in scores from stoppages - and directly above some pretty good clearance teams in Blues, Tigers and Bulldogs. But way down in 15th for scores from turnovers, above only Roos, Eagles and the Hawks. That aint gonna cut it.

I’m no statistician, but top 4 in all three of those categories is statistically impressive!