binman

I agree with all of those points. But I support a red card, in very clearly defined scenarios (which by their nature are relatively rare), when it results in the opposition losing a player. That hit happened near the end of the second quarter. The kid was playing well. And then knocked out, and can't come back on. Dog act. They lost hurn and West and with hewiit off, were down to two on the bench for a big chunk of that game. Losing hewiit was a huge disadvantage for the Eagles. Unlikely to have been a difference between winning and losing, but there's plenty of examples where it has. And I'm persuaded by the argument, what if that happened 5 minutes in to a grand final - let's say de Goey knocks tracc out cold. Play on?

I look at it often. Brilliant site. Very user friendly. Partic how I use it, which is predominantly to zero in on our key stats and also comparing teams accross mutiple data points. For stats, I now only use wheelo and footy wire. And i always look at the timeline function in the match area on the afl app as they post some really intersting, and often very obscure (eg one effective disposal inside 50 in the second q against freo) champion data stats.

But the accuracy is also related to speed of ball movement and one, preparedness to take risks and two, execute. Faster ball movement creates free options inside 50 in good spots and more out the back, running into open goal type goals. And executing riskier kicks means more use of the corridor and therefore better looks at goal. This is one of the reasons that it frustrates me the media doesn't factor in fitness levels and fatigue - except in rhe most superficial way - into their analysis. I mean it is fundamental. And is the key factor in so many games, both in terms of the outcome but also the quality of the game in terms of skill execution. They use phrased like x team is just not on today instead. I have made reaaly good money this year, and the previous two seasons, at this time of year, factoring fatigue and the resulting drop off into my footy betting. For example last night I absolutely slammed the suns because one, their game plan is so contest to contest based it is less impacted by fatigue (because it isnt as reliant as say the pies on hitting targets on transition- they smash it forward and hope to win the next contest). And two, because they were super smart and went up to darwin a week before the dogs game and stayed up there to acclimatise. Crows started well, but could not handle the humidity and blew up

Yep. I assume goal kicking accuracy is included in the DE ratings. And logic suggests accuracy from set shots is very much impacted by fatigue. You see the impact in games at the end qs, or after long sprints, when a player is gassed and has a set shot. Chandlers third point, was a good example. Add accumulative fatigue to the mix and inaccuracy is inevitable. I think we have average technique accross the board, and again logic suggests fatigue would have more an impact on our DE than say the pies, who are on average better kicks. That said, sidebottom out is huge for them, because they really rely on their 4 elite kicks- daicos x 2, peddles and sidebottom - to hit high risk kicks on transition. Lose 25% of elite kicks and their scoring chains will break more often

That's nut wheelo. Love it.

Accumulative fatigue would absolutely be a factor why our inside 50 conversion rate has declined as the season has progressed. Less wave running and the resulring slower transition mean more crowded forwardlines and time for defensive zones to get set and fewer players running ahead of, and towards, the ball to provide a free option inside 50. And of course our disposal efficiency gets worse. Aa an example, we only had one effective disposal inside our 50 in the second quarter of the freo game. That's scarcely believable.

That is not what he said. At all The relevant part of the interview is 15:45 to 21:48.

Not a chance. Any concussion, mutiple weeks. Let the ball pass him, elected to bump - and flushed his shoulder direct into his cheek. Text book. No concussion and he still gets a minimum one, maybe two.

Gawn

And 2 Thursday night games this year too. So seven stand alone premier night games - and lost 5 of them.

Third week in a row where the umpiring was appalling. But zero push back from the media. It's pathetic. The media are completely compliant with an afl shadow ban of legitimate critique or one of the most critical elements of the game.

He's not the best one on one player at the best of times, and McKay must be close to the best and from memory, all his marks were one out and the ball kicked to his advantag. So, I agree, he worked hard and really stuck to his task. I really admire how he has gone about things since he did his knee. Must be hard going from best 22 lock to a fringe player. Never dropped his head.

Yeah, coz they were so ruthless last week against the second worst team in the afl when they got smashed in the last quarter, giving up 6 goals. And despite winning three more games prior to this match, they still had a lower percentage than us. So ruthless. Is this a bloody pies footy forum or a Demon's one? FMD.

Don't mention the war....

Hypothesis one: the arc of the season The season is an act in four parts for teams who are genuine flag contenders. Act one is the preseason, in particular January and February, through to round 11 or 12. Act two is rounds 11-12, through the bye and up to aprox round 15 Act three is round 15 to the end of the home and way season Act four is finals Everything has to go right in all four acts to win a flag Act one The training block in Jan and February is perhaps the most important element of the whole season, and certainly act one of the season. During this phase they basically put down their fitness foundation for the whole season. Get it wrong and the season is toast. Burgess has been incredibly influential in this space. Critical is not having players miss any sessions, as far is possible, because there is no do over and players never get to optimal fitness if they don't get this base down. Luck plays a part because to do the work and not miss sessions players have to be injury free. We came into that corresponding period last year with a number of players still carrying niggles etc from the 2021 season (which finished very late for us – and the dogs, who never got going at all in 2022). I knew Carlton would struggle this season because they had heaps of players who mised mutiple sessions, including their best mid in Walsh, with injury or recovering from surgery. They started the season well behind the 8 ball and have played catch up since. They are toast. By all accounts we had excellent Jan and Feb, with almost all players completing every session, with the notable exception of salo who was impacted near the end of that block with the thyroid stuff. This gives me great confidence about our chances of going all the way this year. The teams that have got it right in Jan and Feb will be at optimal fitness in round one (unless they have deliberately pushed that window forward, which I suspect the Cats may have). And we were. This is key because our game plan, like that of the Pies, Cats and to lesser extent, Lions (the contenders) is completely dependent on being at optimal fitness levels. And as such the first 4-5 games are the ones to look at to assess our game plan and method (and of the other contenders). If we get things right and enter the finals close to cherry ripe condition our game plan and method, save some tactical and structural tweaks, will look much the same as the first 4-5 games (noting Goody has said a few times this season we are experimenting with different things). As part one of the season progresses, what Selwyn Griffiths call accumulative fatigue increasingly kicks in and our performance suffers – in large part because as noted, to work optimally our game plan requires optimal fitness. But the other factor is fatigue will impact players differently. Logic suggests younger players will be impacted more by fatigue than more seasoned players. And we have seen that with the drop off in performance in the last couple of weeks of Kossi, Bowey, Mcvee, Rivers, Chandler, Spargo and JVR. Given three of those players are defenders, I wonder whether that is a factor in our struggles winning ground ball in D50 – Salem being out for all but 2 games has to be a factor too. Seven young players who are really struggling with fatigue is nearly a third of the starting 22, which also helps explains our subpar performances in the last two games. I also think we are impacted by fatigue more than the other contenders because we have too many poor kicks and fatigue exacerbates poor tehnique. Again, we have seen that in the last two games with heaps of turnovers and missed shots at goal (we had ONE effective kick inside 50 in the second q against Freo!) And of course it is not just Melbourne’s performance that drops off at this point in the season. One only needs to look at the quality of the matches in the last 2 weeks to see that. Even more stark were the results last round – four top 8 sides were beaten by teams outside of the top eight. And the Lions got rolled by the Crows (who were just inside the 8) and looked rubbish (‘they don’t look on’ according to the commentary). The Pies gave up 6 last quarter goals to the lowly Roos to only beat them by 35 points – no way that happens in the first third of the season. Selwyn Griffiths said on the DL interview that in season the games only provide 70% of the contribution to maintaining aerobic levels and between games it is not really possible to build it. So, as the season progresses players are fatigued (mentally and physically as Selwyn noted) AND their aerobic capacity drops. And of course then, so does our performance. Which is one reason why it is of little value to look at the last 2 games, or tonight’s game for that matter, as some sort of gauge or litmus test of our chances of one, beating the other contenders, or two winning the flag. Or for that matter to put much stock in any key metrics and/or stats in this period. For me these games feel like old school games in the 80s and 90s. That doesn’t mean these games aren’t important of course. Losing the last 2 means tonight becomes critical because if we lose tonight making top 4 will be that much harder. And there is a psychological element. Pushing past fatigue and getting the win is what the best teams do. I’m not saying Port are one of the best teams, but they were very average against the Tigers, who really should have won that game. But Port won and I have to say I was really impressed they did.

Episode 2. And three. And four. And five. And six

Okley dokley. I have some hot takes on elements of our game plan and our plan/program this season. A hypothesis, if you will. I have been trying to work out how best to articulate my thoughts in a digestible way. My idea was to break it into elements/topics, and post about each element separately, with this post as context to help clarify what underpins my conclusions. I’m not sure this methodology achieves that aim, and as is my wont is too long, but there you go. The elements/topics I want to cover are: How I see the arc of the season The dees 2023 game plan The game plan of the other contenders The fitness program Specific elements of the game plan – eg stoppages, clearances, transition, forward entry etc Issues – eg ground ball inside 50, medium defender, tall forwards I figure the halfway point of the year is a good time for this hypothesis as there is more than sufficient data points to make some conclusions. I say hypothesis because I want to make clear this is my own assessment and I don’t want to have clog the post up with my usual caveats – I reckon and i think. My hypothesis is informed by: comments from Goody, the players and coaches comments from other clubs coaches, in particular Hardwick, Scott brothers and Mitchell some really terrific content and analysis by many Demonland posters comments by George and Andy on the podcast various bits of publically available data my analysis of the last few seasons my sense of where football is at the moment tactically etc my own musings the vibe And of course another input is the opinions, ideas and thoughts of footy media people, in particular (in order of how much stock I put in them): Brendan Sanderson, Daniel Hoyne from champion data Jobe Watson (who is god awful commentator because he struggles to enunciate, but I actually find often makes some really insightful comments) Brad Johnson Montagna Gerard Healy Buckley (who frustrates me a bit because he seems to mix genuine insight with some whacko stuff) David King (see comment about Buckley) My hypothesis is based on, and informed by, a number of assumptions and personal beliefs, including: Fitness has always been an important factor in the VFL/AFL, but is now one of the 3 most significant determinants of the likelihood of winning a flag (the other two being quality of the list - and where it is at from a demographic perspective and luck with injury. I have coaching next. And it goes without saying clubs need to be well governed etc) The model Damien Hardwick introduced at the tigers that proved so successful has changed footy and is now the template and starting point for all teams (though I think Mitchell is trying something genuinely new) Goodwin has based his game plan on that core elements of the tiger template – defence first, pressure, pressure, pressure, pressure, contested ball, territory, run in waves, overlap scoring from turnover, intercept marking down back, rebound and transition from the back, heavy emphasis on role, heavy emphasis on system and forward half footy The Pies, given the fact they haven’t won a flag, have had an outside influence in terms of influencing other team’s game plan – in particular their speed of ball movement from the back half and their preparedness to change lanes and take risks with their kicks But the Pies model is actually still undefined by the Tigers template and isn’t nearly as different and/or new as the footy media would have people believe That said, the Pies game plan has absolutely led to us making some pretty big changes to our game plan and method Analytics is playing a huge role in footy now – and the pies method is very much informed by analytics (for example I suspect analytics show that with the right mitigating strategies higher risk kicks result in a net higher score ie taking into account scores from turnovers) Coaches are on different points on the risk – reward, offence versus defence scales It is incredibly difficult to win a flag – so much has to go right, and so few things need to go wrong to make a flag impossible Clubs look to the previous year’s flag winner and incorporate elements of what contribute to their success Each individual home and away game is not litmus test on the dees chances of winning a flag and way, way too much emphasis is put on the outcomes of individual matches It is possible to think the dees will win the flag this year AND that in all probability they won’t

Agree. Much better fit for his strengths, and perhaps more importantly his weaknesses. I suspect his number one kpi tonight will be, if we cant mark a high ball inside 50 it comes to ground. I also suspect they'll use him in the tmac role of getting up the ground to provide a marking option from kicks to half back from deep in our defence and lead up option on the wing.

And they're not playing on each other, so what does it matter if their forwards are taller? We've brought in another tall defender, so tomo can take McKay and may curnow, with Lever third man in.

Perhaps not such a bad thing to be a bit shorter up forward on a potentially slippery night. All 3 forwards are pretty good when the ball hits the deck. And with his leap, Smithy plays taller than 191 I reckon.

Smithy!!!!!!! Love it.

Oath.

He even has his own theme song:

It wouldn't be too much different. The narrative would just be papering over the cracks yada yada yada. By the by, i totally acknowledge we have some significant weaknesses and some potential issues. Ironically given JVR is now playing senior footy and we have brought in Schache, one of them is exactly the same as last year – real concern about the second tall forward position. Another is our small and medium defender role – but on that front kudos must go to keeping Schultz quiet. I have long said our biggest weakness is our kicking skills, and it remains a worry and even our very best players, with the possible exception of Oliver are not one touch players like say Butters (who was brilliant in the wet against us and the Tigers). Maxy is still not 100% and I don’t think he and Grundy have quiet nailed their synergy. And i fall into the trap of underestimating the impact of injuries we have dealt with - we really missed Petty, Max out for 3 games (and most of the lions game) and still finding his best, May looks to have struggled all season with the ground ball suggesting back issues or similar, losing Hibberd and Lever right before games, Tmac still struggling with his foot, BB not ready for senior footy and Salem missing 9 games. But we are not playing in vacuum. Every other team, including the three above us on the ladder, have their share of problems too, including the Pies (who by the by are 10-1 after 11 rounds, same as us last year and we know that guarantees nothing come finals). Are Lions, Dog, Saints and Cats fans writing off their top 4 or finals chances after the week’s losses? Maybe. Nuffies follow all clubs. But perhaps a better question is are dees fans writing off say the Lions and the dogs after their poor losses against lower ranked teams? Some maybe, but because Dees are fans are likely more objective about other teams most wouldn’t.

It is almost impossible to believe of any demon fan, but I sometime wonder if some posters actually understand how difficult it is to win a flag. Goody won a flag the season before last. Finished second on the ladder after the 2022 season (and yes went out in straight sets - but surely everyone knows by now that we entered the final with up to 11 players under injury clouds - and played like that). We currently sit fourth on the ladder at almost the halfway point of the 2023 and almost all teams have played each other once (and will have after the next round). So, leaving aside anyone's assessment of where we are at, be that postesr here or the media, the objective truth of the ladder is that we currently have the fourth best record of any team in the AFL. And people can talk all they want about our forward line and scoring ability, but again the objective fact is that we have a higher percentage than the Pies, a team people still seem to rabbit on about their scoring power. It is remarkable because the Pies have won a full three more games than us. Three less wins - and yet we still have a higher percentage. The Pies have now played one of the two real easy beats in North (who we get to play again, and they don't by the way) and 11 rounds of AFL football is more than enough to level out any of the fixturing anomalies that might make such a comparison hard after say 5 rounds. And it is worth noting that of the Pies' 11 games, 8 have been played at the MCG. That's a pretty good leg up for them scoring wise. Some argue the Lions have the best forward line in the AFL. After 11 rounds, they have won one more game, yet we have almost 10 percentage points more - despite the leg up they get playing their Gabba fortress. And Port is considered not a bad attacking side and have a decent forward line and have won two more games than us. Yet we are a whopping 22 percentage points clear of them. After we smashed the Hawks no one was talking about our forward line problems. In fact, we were being lauded for our historically high spread of goal kickers. Yet we have two average games against two good teams and its panic stations. And against Freo we actually got our chances, we just didn't take them. as reflected in the expected score which had us at plus 35. Bottom line, Goody has made it clear he isnt about one flag. Or two. He is about setting up an environment where we are in contention for a flag for many years. In that he has clearly taken a line through how the Cats have gone about doing so, who won flag in Scotts first year (a team that was strong already), remained contender for the next 9 years before winning a second flag for that group. And are contenders again this season. But some are seriously suggesting Goody lucked out, or we need a reboot. I mean really? The objective fact simply do not support such a view.