Adam The God

Yeah, surely Curtin goes straight to West Coast. If the Eagles finish on the bottom, he'll be the number one pick.

If David King was doing proper analysis, he'd be looking at these sorts of stats and saying, who is consistently in the top 4 in all areas? Whoever that is, will be the team who is currently positioned the best for a flag tilt. Of course, flags require luck on the injury front and in game luck, but you'd have to say that Melbourne are clearly the flag favourites based on our ability to execute our method that sees us scoring in multiple ways at an elite level, and yet still be defensively incredibly strong (top 4 for scores against).

This is excellent and to me shows how reliant Collingwood are on stoppages for scores, which is based on sending +2 to the stoppage. Wowee, I've always thought they were vulnerable, but if you even just give them only +1 at the stoppage and beat them there or break even, they are going to struggle to beat you. I'm a bit like @binman, I don't really rate them. Admire what McCrae has been able to do, but it's not sustainable IMV. I feel teams are mostly keeping their powder dry on Collingwood. Collingwood are all over the place on those charts, but are right up there with stoppage goals. Conversely, we're high on all scoring methods, making us much harder to play against. All duck, no dinner, anyone? 😉

Was hoping for 70k this year. Might need to win the flag to get it up to 70k next year.

I wonder if they want to get a game under his belt before the important Port game? If so, he could come straight in this week. I wonder if McVee will get a rest...

I was just referencing this article for where we were in points from turnover in mid April - https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-key-statistics-for-every-club-this-season-strengths-and-weaknesses-champion-data-state-of-play-analysis-news/news-story/2bf72ecb1043155555b0f18b4ca7b390 @WheeloRatings will be all over it.

Legend. Thanks @WheeloRatings. 👏 Some further fodder for the Podcast tonight @Demonland @george_on_the_outer @binman

We can, but my point was we're no longer reliant on it. And the basis for the OP was "winning" clearances, so if our clearances result in better scoring opportunities and theirs are all rushed and we manage to force them wide or intercept, but we lose the clearance count, what's the problem? It's the quality of the clearance that matters.

I know this might be a little difficult to discuss in a podcast format, however, be good to get the team's thoughts on our zone. IMV, we can no longer go forward with the 2021-2022 zone, as the opposition chip game is the way through it. I believe we have to do what occurred for at least a little while in the second (?) quarter against Richmond, where we played 1v1 for 20-30m from half forward, defending a stationary ball situation out of Richmond's back half. We then played a zone behind it. It means we get the game looking like we want it, because the opposition cannot pick off the short kicks and have to go long to our interceptors.

Which would suggest we tried to protect our mids by bringing on Harmes in the last quarter to provide an extra rotation chop out.

Spargo filled in on the wing quite a bit last year. I'm a big Charlie fan, but I reckon he needs to play forward of centre. The wing is too high and then occasionally too defensive for his height. It could well be exploited going back the other way. I'd prefer we go Gus to the other wing if Hunter's spot is in jeopardy, but Lingers has struggled the last few weeks IMV, so the wing is a hard call this year.

The way Fritsch plays annoys me (I think) as much as @DeeSpencer, but the way he plays is what it is. He's a star and he's never going to be dropped, because he'll usually hit the scoreboard and is a game breaker. However, your suggestion for Joel Smith, who I'm not a fan of, has merit this particular week and possibly the following week. Providing the FD believe he has enough kms in the legs, I'd bring him in for JVR and send Petty behind the ball. I'd then use Smith as a defensive forward on Aliir Aliir the following week. So Smith for JVR and I wonder if we can get Spargo in for one of our smalls that needs a rest? Otherwise, Spargo for Turner.

Some really brilliantly thoughtful and switched on responses in this thread. It's why Demonland is the place to go for proper footy analysis. You'd think an AFL TV or radio show would be, but sadly not. I remember Round 2 of 2019. My sister and I went down to Geelong in the pelting rain to watch us face the Cats. That night, we won clearance by +15, had +24 inside 50s, but lost by 80 points. For years, we bemoaned the fact we were too one dimensional and completely reliant on stoppages to be in games. 2019 was a year that saw us regularly win clearance (as we had during 2018) and yet we finished 2nd last. Chris Scott's MO for years at Geelong was to essentially slingshot off the back of opposition attacking thrusts from clearance. Goodwin for many years went the opposite way. Play territory by winning clearance and taking territory. Repeat entries and pressure on the opposition defence would eventually lead to scores. Play a high press that would lock the ball in our A50 and sit an anchor (ideally our quickest player or best reader of play) as the deepest goalkeeper. Aggressive and vulnerable out the back, if we lost key 1v1s or failed to capitalise on the territory dominance with scoreboard pressure. Goodwin evolved this approach in mid 2020 (the St Kilda win was the clear stand out in style, despite us only winning narrowly) and was perfected in 2021, where post stoppage pressure became king. Winning the post clearance battle was our concern and Goodwin would often speak about this in pressers. This post clearance focus enabled us to continue playing the territory game, but instead of being overly reliant on stoppages, we wanted to pressure the opposition stoppage as extremely as possible, to ensure they'd simply hand it back to our interceptors or our defence would have time to mop up ground balls. We won a flag playing this way and Chris Scott aped much of Goodwin's blueprint to win it last year. This year, we're sweating turnovers and essentially cashing in big on turnover. I'm not sure of the latest data and @WheeloRatings is usually all over this stuff, but as of mid April, we were league leaders for points from turnover. Tellingly, at the same stage, Gold Coast were the best stoppage team and second worst points from turnover team. Coincidence? It means we're less reliant on stoppages for scores and are more focused on scoring off turnover. Conversely, Gold Coast are more like us circa 2018. Reliant on stoppages for goals and vulnerable on the turnover. As an aside but also another facet of our shift away from an over reliance on stoppages is Max. As a ruckman, IMV he's too predictable. He's a great tap to advantage ruck, but as a result, the opposition can also read him like a book. This is where Grundy's different style really suits us and gives us a different gear if Max is being sharked. Arresting momentum in high pressure games could be crucial and having two such different rucks will constantly keep the opposition guessing and hopefully unable to build too much momentum against us. The other thing Grundy gives us is phenomenal follow up at ground level, which suits our post clearance defence method. So it's not just Clarry, Trac, Viney or Sparrow that's at you, but Grundy as well. The points from turnover is a key stat to watch for the remainder of the year. It's not one available on the AFL ap, but in live telecasts and on the scoreboard at games, it's regularly shown as a key pathway to scores, along with points from stoppages. We can get the ball out the front of stoppages and get dangerous, deep entries that lead to scores - think the 2021 GF. But everyone knows we can do this and tries to ensure this route 1 option is impossible. It felt like at times in 2022, we were trying to be too pure with these out the front clearances and would often see handballs or knock ons intercepted by the opposition, which left us vulnerable going back the other way out of the stoppage, or would simply lead to a breakdown and a stoppage that should have been a reasonable clearance going forward to the 6-6-6. We may have wanted to be more precise from stoppage last year, because our inability to win ground ball and defend rebound ground ball was lacking. Incidentally, this is likely why BBB and Tmac find themselves out of the side. In any case, I think we've made a number of key adjustments in 2023, from the perfectionistic out the front clearances and predictable, slower ball movement to the pockets, and reverted to a quicker more central ball movement (at least upon 50 entry) with better ground ball competitors in our forward 50 to capitalise at ground level. With this, the data seems to support a clear shift to feasting on turnover as opposed to goals from stoppage.

What odd framing for a thread. I'd be extremely surprised, as would the rest of the footy world, if we're not inside the top 4, let alone the 8 by the end of the year. I think we'll get 16+ wins.

That ANB moment was a prime example of exhaustion and fatigue impacting on disposal. ANB had 4 tackles to quarter time. Incredibly taxing. It also supports the clear drop off after quarter time.

Very happy to get the win. We don't get beaten up like that at CPs (-27) and clearances (-6) if we're not off our 4th interstate match in 8. We looked absolutely exhausted after quarter time. The Suns are good in the contest, but not that good. And defensively, they waltzed through our zone and waltzed through the corridor a number of times - we seemed to back off them at times too, but their talls provided good contests ahead of the ball, which worried us a bit. It felt like we went really hard in the first quarter and tried to do what we did against North and ice the game by quarter time. But the first three quarters followed a similar trend where we dominated scoring, before the Suns would reel us back in. I love our ball movement and unpredictable forwardline at the moment, but our contests behind the ball (in the air and on the ground) need to be much better and our defensive zone (the transition is generally fine), needs a tweak otherwise we don't beat Collingwood or likely Geelong at the pointy end. Let's see if the FD is holding a few aces back. That Suns win though could well be huge in the scheme of things this year. Lucky or not, a win's a win!

So we definitely didn't play 1v1 for 20-30m from half forward and zone behind it against the Suns. I'm wondering if it was actually something Richmond were employing against us, rather than us to them. We haven't done it since and we only seemed to do it for a quarter. I know we looked cooked off another 5 day break with the addition of interstate travel, but the ease with which the Suns could pick through our zone to at least the middle of the ground, requires system adjustments IMO. The chip game kills us. They didn't get enough handball overlap against us, but that's mostly because they didn't seem to try. It was more about quick chips to shift the ball along different angles to get from 45m D50 to centre wing. We didn't have an answer for it, other than we were lucky that they missed a few simple targets. I'm not exactly sure how you beat the system I describe above (1v1 over 20-30m and zone behind), other than to beat us in the contest in the air and on the ground. And therefore, I hope we make an adjustment like this to our zone. I'd hope it's doable in season. Or perhaps, it's something we're even holding back from at this stage, and something we'll introduce in the second half of the year?

So Freo v the Tankers today. Should be interesting viewing. Is there another game on today that I should be aware of? 😜

Just a few other posts in this thread. Sorry mate. Should have made that clearer. Little bit of Friday morning ranting from AF.

And we pass them on 14 flags this year. 😉

McVee has struggled the last two weeks. Had three kicked on him in 5 minutes against Richmond. As soon as Salem is fit, he comes straight in for McVee IMV. As for moving to QLD, are we serious here? There's about 39 things on every weekend in Melbourne. In QLD you sit on a beach and then get cycloned. I've got a mate that moved up there too. An absolute nuffy, love him, but he likes the very slow life. It'll get warmer in Melbourne (climate) and extreme coldness as well (climate). Whereas, QLD'll just burn. We're in a very privileged position those of us living in Melbourne.

Hawthorn are one of the most arrogant clubs around. They think they can tank and make it work (exhibit A, the start of Clarkson's journey). They probably think Melbourne and Carlton are just inept clubs that couldn't tank as well as them for the end result of 4 flags in 8 years.

I just saw this on Zerohanger. An utter disgrace.

Trac as well. Seems to have let go of his yips (touch wood).

Obviously, he's brilliant, but quicker ball movement and targeting the central channels/lanes rather than the pockets increases the likelihood of positive conversion. So as usual, it's never just one factor.