Last year I had the teams divided into four main groups:
- Top 4: Port, Lions, Cats and Tigers. These teams were at a higher level and could beat each other on the right day.
- Gunning for the 8: Dees, Saints, Dogs, Pies, GWS. Anyone of these 5 could have ended up in the 8 but 2 had to miss out. I had West Coast on their own. Definitely not top 4 but a cut above the “Gunning for the 8” group (context helped them).
- Having a go: Freo, Blues, Dons, Suns, Hawks, Swans. Big group with some showing more improvement than others towards the end.
- Hopeless: North and Crowd.
Demons: When the FULL TEAM turned up to play FOUR FULL quarters, we could beat all the “Gunning for the 8” teams and give the top 4 teams a run for their money (but we weren’t at their level of skill, intensity, team work, strategy, etc). But when half our players made a poor effort and we fell asleep for full quarters, we’d struggle to beat “Having a go” teams. See Cairns.
A lot could happen this season, but my baseline scenario:
- Crows move up a group, hawks down a group.
- Carlton and Freo move up a group, Pies and GWS to move down and Eagles to become part of the “Gunning for the 8” group. This group will expand. Some will miss out by definition.
- Saints to move up a group, and Cats floating between top 4 and “Gunning 8” groups, like eagles last year.
Where does that leave Melb? Realistically, we’re in the same Gunning for the 8 group as last year but if our forward line works and the FULL TEAM turns up to play FOUR FULL quarters EVERY week, we’re towards the top of this group and knocking on the top 4 door. That’s a big if.
My two cents.