Watson11

The forward issues are really obvious. But the alarm bells are in defence as well. We have gone from the hardest team to win one on one contests against to the easiest in no time. Our defenders are losing 42.9% of one on one contests. That must be an AFL all time low if it continues. I think our current predicament is as much or more on the playing leadership group than Goody. Several of them mentioned the session at Staffords farm where they hashed out their values as the turning point in 21. Others mentioned the offseason work on culture that Goody wasn’t involved in as important. Our success was despite an off field mess at that time. So the playing leadership need to stand up again and take matters into their own hands and honestly hold each other to account starting with why our forwards don’t lead, why our mids bomb it long all the time, and why our defenders can’t win a one on one. Whether Goody stays or goes, nothing will change unless our players lead the club out of this mess, like they did in 2021.

There may be something in that or there may not be. Clarkos record was 122-65 with Yze as an assistant and is 97-116 without him. The reality is Yze was an assistant at both clubs right when they were in the window, except the last two years at the Hawks in 2019-2020 (when they were 16-23)

So are you saying that Goody should stand down like Buckley did in 21.

Can’t understand how you can’t be impressed with Fagan. He took Brisbane over when they were rock bottom and a mess. He did the full rebuild, not just the finishing like Goody. Ie from 18th to a flag. Yes they struggled in finals initially but they were finishing top 4 at the same stage of their rebuild when we were missing the 8. They were a young team. Since their straight sets exit in 21 they have played in the last 3 prelims, 2 GFs, and won a flag. They are 4-0 this year. Finals record is 8-2 since 21. He’s a brilliant coach.

Have you forgotten bang bang bang 6-6-6 started in 2019 I think.

As bad as the decisions were, the ease that we just allowed a stoppage in all 3 is terrible. Keep the ball alive and put the defenders under pressure.

If we move the ball quickly from the backline to get more marks inside 50, then the best we could hope for is 23-25% of inside 50s being marked. Last year we were 22.4%. Our 21 season was 22.5%. The Tigers won 2 flags with lower numbers. In fact, our percentage was the 4th best of the last 10 premiers. The poster child for ball movement were the pies in 23, who marked 24.3% of inside 50s. We need to move the ball better but it’s not our biggest problem. Our biggest problem is the other 75-80% of entries where the ball hits the ground. Our method is to create a stoppage, which opponents love as it’s easy to get numbers back and defend. It’s very different to what the tigers from 2017-2020 did, which is keep the ball alive at all costs. The post game pressers last Friday were telling. Scott was effusive about Dangerfields forward work, particularly the things that don’t show on the stat sheet like keeping the ball alive. On Friday, Geelong were never pressured in our forward 50. Yet we were every time it went into geelongs. But we can do it. Against Geelong last year was one of the games goody coached well in where he didn’t let Geelong have the free behind the ball, we put forward pressure on, and at one stage the game went for about 20 minutes without a stoppage. Guess what. We won. Inside 50s were pretty much even like last Friday as well. But there are probably 5 games in the last 3 years where we changed this up. The other 70 games we are just on a stupid rinse and repeat cycle creating forward stoppages leading to our typical congested forward line. The big concern I have, is I don’t think goody realises it’s a problem.

I believe it's a 12 month max payout. So would be to 7 April. The AFL only sets the limit for "AFL-funded" clubs. But every club appears to be AFL funded. The base level is $12.2m this year. No club just gets the base level. We receive $23.8m in 2025. The Hawks the lowest of the Vic clubs is at $18.4m. GWS and Gold Coast get $34m. So I assume the limit applies to all clubs. The limit would be written into his contract which the AFL would have signed off on. But one interesting thing is when Goody signed the extension in 2023 the limit was 6 months (it was changed to 12 months later that year). You would assume his contract was initially written that he is paid out to the AFL stipulated max.

It looks like we have a confused playing group not quite sure or believing in what they are doing. I have a view that with game plans coaches either Copy the dominant teams game plan. Develop a new method to counter the dominant game plan. Nearly every team are trying to move the ball more quickly from defensive half. That’s because the zone that the Tigers and Melbourne perfected was so dominant, and it is the way to break the zone. Any ideas on what a game plan looks like to defeat the teams that rely on fast ball movement from defensive 50? This year (small sample size), there are 3 teams scoring more heavily from forward half (Crows, Suns, Saints). They rank 1, 2, and 4 at score from turnover. What are they doing differently. Will any of them make finals?

That could be true. I think mostly, teams who win a flag should at least be contending for another and making GFs or prelims. A factor could be how old or mature teams and coaches are when they win a flag. There is an assumption that a young team that wins a premiership should build a dynasty, but the history seems to suggest the complete opposite. Most premiership teams have an average age of 26-28. Since 2000 there have really been 4 dynasties that were in that age bracket. (Lions 2001-2004, Cats 2007-2011, Hawks 2012-2015, Tigers 2017-2020). The first flag for each was won when the average age was 25.5 - 26.5. The five youngest premiership teams have been West Coast (2006), Hawks (2008), Pies (2010), Dogs (2016), MFC (2021) - all with an average age under 25 (except west coast at 25.1). All dropped off pretty quickly after the flag with off field issues. The Hawks kept that core together and built a dynasty around it later but they were the only one. The 2010 Pies were interesting. If they didn’t hand that list to a young coach they may have done better. All the other coaches were young. Maybe a young coach and young premiership team is just a recipe for disaster. That doesn’t let Goody off the hook. But I really think the off field issues have had a much bigger impact than anyone gives it credit for. The clubs infighting (board, player punch ups etc) began in May 2022 coinciding with our onfield decline.

From 2007-2011 the cats made 5 prelims, 4 GFs, and won 3 flags in 5 years. What’s your definition of a dynasty?

I was surprised how many tackles he had in 2018. If he wanted to, he could obviously apply more pressure when he doesn’t have the ball. It’s almost like pressure is not one of the non negotiables in our team. It should be. Forward pressure creates turnovers and easier scores (including for Fritsch).

Although they kicked 3 goals in the last and the last 2 goals came from defensive 50 transitions. Those 2 goals won them the game. We should have defended both of them better.

I think you have contradicted yourself in both of those sentences. Hoyne is saying get it in there quickly, but for exactly the reason you state in your second sentence. If you move the ball quickly then the forward line is more open and you’re more likely to score. We absolutely did not do that. Our method was get it in there to a pocket taking as long as you like, create a stoppage, setup a wall, intercept, take as long as you like again, repeat. And it’s not all about transition from defence. Brisbane are not one of the fastest defensive transition teams. They control the ball well in the back half and minimise turnovers. They move it on a lot more quickly in their forward half including from forward half turnovers and the front 6 are a lot more dynamic than us. And Brisbane have won a flag. GWS and Hawks are unproven in finals.

I think the main error in that last play was Clarry. He was on Callaghan but as soon as the kickin happened elected to run to the Kelly/Jones contest leaving Callaghan free in the corridor. That mistake meant GWS had the one extra streaming through the middle.