Jarka

The thing about 'best available' is that it's completely subjective, when it comes to drafting day there could be 16 different opinions as who is the 'best available.'

Sorry but you're wrong. The people who I'm referring to are the guys that watch the kids playing ie local junior coaches etc.

I have to admit something, I love this time of the year. The trading of players and picks, the analysis of the lists and the discussions about the next group of kids coming through helps keeps me excited about the next season. I also love reading and listening to all the different views and theories floating around, especially the u18's, so I've decided to dedicate this thread to all the oracles out there. Here is a list of all the different precdictions of who we're going to take with our first 3 picks: Pick 4 Cotchin Morton Masten Ebert Palmer Henderson McEvoy Rance Pick 14 Grant Pears Gourdis Collier Gaertner Scott Simpson Pick 21 Grimes Ward Bellchambers Veszpremi Tarrant Gaertner heh, one interesting thing is that the general view is that we will go tall with our second pick.

There is a general view in the footy world about our 1st round KPP picks, and that is that the players we take are taken too early. Molan, Smith, Dunn and Frawley all fit into this category (Lamb was widely respected as a good chance iirc), so when they fail to meet the expectations of performing at the level expected of a first round pick it's of no surprise to the footballing world. I think that CAC is a good recruiter, however I'm a believer that we shouldn't blindly worship someone just because they post here. Just like what happens with my own job every year every position in our club should be evaluated and investigated to see if we can do it better. The facts remain that after 10 years of one person having the job we've got a list that hasn't been able to make a serious tilt at the flag in the last 6 years and mostly recently finished 3rd last. Add to that record a new coach has come in and made the statement that we're basically rebuilding the squad around that u23's. Now it could be that it's not the recruiting which has been the problem, it could be that we've been poor at devloping them once they get onto our list, I don't have the answers but having a new coach is exactly what we need, fresh ideas.

I'm not altering the stats to suit my agenda, but what you're suggesting is ridiculous. He said that the success rate for 1st round picks is 70%, so if you isolate any particular type of player then you'd expect that rate to be the same. Please explain to me how I'm altering the stats. Even if what you're saying is true it doesn't change the results, our drafting of KPP's in the 1st round over the last ten years has been poor (at best). Only one person is responsible for that.

Rubbish excuse, injury played no part in both of them being delisted, they were simply just not good enough.

My only gripe with CAC is with his KPP's (including rucks) selections. He states that the success rate with 1st rounders is around 70%, right now going by his rules he's running at 0% with KPP's with only Frawley likely to be a true KPP who will play 50 games. So that's 20% at best. Everyone else he does is great though, so I guess you can't be perfect.

Yeah, I understand how the nd works, a player can also put a price on their head in the nd as well (see T.Cloke). Moorcroft, Funcke and Ferguson are excellent examples of why we should stick to untried u/18's in the nd.

In my opinion some of the younger guys running around in the VFL have more potential than rejects from an AFL list. Some guys simply develop at a later age, Woewoedin being a prime example. Just my humble opinion though edit: the nd is for the kids from the u/18's, rookie for the kids that missed out on the nd

Of all the players mentioned so far Sampi is the one I'd choose. However, at this stage I'd still prefer to take a punt with an untried talented kid from either the VFL, SANFL or WAFL

Sounds like a younger version of Ben Holland - oh dear. What about Grant and Gourdis? I believe Grant is a very quick forward with sticky hands. edit - thanks wheels with the reply

There's alot of talk around about McEvoy, been hearing from different sources that he is very slow. Can anyone who has actually seen alot of him clarify this please.

Palmer has some exciting talent, you have to love his passion and finishing but in the U/18's Masten was feeding him alot of opportunities. If he can overcome his OP he'll have a long career in the AFL.

I acknowledge and understand all of your points, all valid. It would be a difficult decision for the club to make with a heap of issues that need to be asked and addressed before it could happen. I'd like us to take him but I believe that we won't, because of your reasoning and comments that our pres has made in the past. Even though I'd like to have him I wouldn't be concerned if we didn't pick him, as you said we're at a very fragile stage of our development and our identity is far more important.

For some reason i read the title as: "Newton is God" Has a nice ring to it, also gives him something to grow into.

What I meant to say is that it's fairly rare for a player who gets delisted and then gets picked up by another club to go on and be a good football. eg the saonts wanted to keep Joel Smith but the Hawks trumped their offer and he made the decision to go into the psd. Ditto for Voss, O'Bree and Stevens. I'm pretty sure we were Simmonds first club but i don't know about Henschel. Kit, you're right about Nick (Mr 100) Gill. He was delisted by us and the roos (?) and Guerra is another one. I know this won't be a popular opinion but I'd take Cousins in a second if he was available, but only if he's clean.

It's rare that a delisted player will get picked up again and play good footy, most decent players picked up in the psd have elected to not re-sign with their old club. Decent delisted players in the past: Rocca Rodan Can't remember anymore, anyone else? At this stage the only players I'd consider would be: David Trotter Daniel McConnell Darren Pfeiffer However I'd be more inclined to take a punt on a VFL/SANFL/WAFL youngster.

I like the new logo

True, missed those, good pickups. With regards to the ruckman my crusade over the last 12 months on this issue has been with both of KPP and rucks, I tend to refer to them both as KPP's cause I'm too lazy and can't be bothered typing 'KPP & rucks' - sorry I should have clarified it earlier.

Stats wise his two best games were against Carlton, 18 & 22 touches. Against the doggies he got 12 that day.

John Laws deserves any litigation that lands in his lap

I'm not sure if we're all talking about the same player, Dunn was reasonable this year, but I just don't see the star quality that everyone has been raving about. He's not a KPP, his overhead marking is not up to scratch, especially for someone his size. He gets most of his goals playing as a goal sneak and was played as a tagger later in the year that got the best out of him. His two best game both against Carlton who were well and truly in tanking mode, hardly something to be proud of. He's shown a bit of potential but let's not build him into something he's not and then exect too much of him in the future.

Bate is not/won't be a CHF. Bailey has already made a statement about this, he wants him to play as a midfielder. Alot of people in footy circles believe that Frawley is more suited to a rebounding HBF role, regardless he has a long way to go before he's capable of holding down CHB Next year will be Newton's 2nd year, it's unrealistic to expect him to play these roles for at least a couple of years Who is or next Full Forward? Who is our next Centre Half Forward? Who is our next Full Back? Who is our Next Ruckman? If our future depends on who we take in this draft then we really are in a hole.

ML, you clearly haven't read the post that I was responding to (and I must admit that this is getting boring having to make this statement). Old made the statement that there has been virtually no talented KPP's taken after our picks over the last 10 years, he challenged me to prove him wrong. Perhaps next time you should read the whole debate instead of taking a post out of context. Up to it?

mo, I don't subscribe to the 'hindsight' attitude that we should have taken 'x' player, that post was made in response to Old's comments that there were no talented KPP's taken after our picks. I like to think that I proved him wrong. (This is also responding to deanox as well) My argument is that somewhere in the process of drafting and developing kids we're failing in the KP/Ruck departments. We have a decent ruckman coming to the end of his career with no clear replacement (As of now Meesen hasn't shown anything to suggest he can be a premiership ruckman). We struggle to contain big forwards with only one true defender, and our only key forward with expeience has only one year left in him (will most likely struggle this year). Sure we have a decent group of young midfielders coming through but it's not good enough to challenge the better teams. We're not like the eagles of two seasons ago with a brilliant midfield led by Judd/Cousins & Kerr, to have a chance we need a balanced performance all over the ground to compete. After ten years of being in control of recruiting CAC is left with a list that has huge holes in it. I challenge anyone to prove me wrong with this statement. As I've already stated in this thread, I'm not sure if the problem is that we're drafting the wrong kids or we're failing to develop them correctly, but something has gone wrong with our KPP's. I get the feeling that this will change with Bailey on board though. deanox, Bate and Dunn aren't KPP's. Bate may be able to pinch hit up forward but as a long term prospect he's future is in the midfield, I seem to remember that Bailey has already stated this as well. The jury is still out on Frawley, he hasn't made it yet but I'd be delighted if he turned into a key defender. !st round picks so far we're running 20% if Frawley makes it. I'll finish by saying that I've never said that CAC is a poor recruiter, in fact in the posts that you've responded to I've actually stated the opposite.