Demonland

The Demons almost blew a six goal lead and ultimately hung on to win by three points over the North Melbourne Kangaroos at the MCG and have temporarily jumped back into the Top 8.

It's Game Day and it very well could be the last roll of the dice for the Demon's finals aspirations in 2024. A loss to the bottom side would be another embarrassing moment in a cursed year for the Dees whilst a win could be the spark they need to reignite the fire in the belly.

Cats up to their old tricks.

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INS – K.Brown (AFL debut), Tomlinson, Tholstrup OUTS – Petracca (inj.), Billings, Laurie (omitted)

Something struck me as I sat on the couch watching the tragedy of North Melbourne’s attempt to beat Collingwood unfold on Sunday afternoon at the MCG. It was three quarter time, the scoreboard had the Pies on 12.7.79, a respectable 63.16% in terms of goal kicking ratio. Meanwhile, the Roos’ 18.2.110 was off the charts at 90.00% shooting accuracy. I was thinking at the same time of Melbourne’s final score only six days before, a woeful 6.15.51 or 28.57% against Collingwood’s 14.5.89 (73.68%). At that very moment I realised that there’s a law at play that will play a very significant role in the outcome of the Melbourne vs North Melbourne game this coming night — the law of averages. North Melbourne had been the hunter for a long time and against an injury-weakened Collingwood it was primed for a kill thanks to its amazing accuracy in kick for goal. This is what gave it an opportunity to record a famous victory against a premiership contender. But as it transpired, this wasn’t enough and when push came to shove, it lacked the resilience (and the luck) to withstand the final lunge to victory of the reigning premier. The problem for the Roos is that the law of averages says that it’s not likely that they will reproduce the high level of accuracy two weeks in a row, nor will the Demons repeat five posters and a shooting accuracy of under 30% in two games running. On that basis, my theory and I’m sticking to it, is that the Kangaroos will suffer a letdown this week. Melbourne has had a bad month or so since it overcame Geelong and went to a 6 - 2 win, loss ratio. Two of the defeats in the intervening period have seen key players go down with long lasting injuries that most teams can’t afford. Missing Jake Lever from defence and Christian Petracca from the midfield (on top of losing Angus Brayshaw before the season started) has imposed a heavy burden on the Demons. Absent the drive that these divisions generate, it’s not surprising that the forwards have suffered in recent times. The coaching panel faces its most difficult task in the era of success that generated a premiership only three years ago and, even against the bottom side, they can’t rely on the law of averages alone to get the job done to rise above the below average form of the last five rounds. I’m less worried about the defence than I am about the midfield in this week’s contest. Even before the Petracca rib/spleen injury fiasco there has been a major drop off in effectiveness of the Melbourne engine room in terms of clearance figures from stoppages and more importantly, in taking control with that vital first possession after the clearance. The bread and butter of the champion midfield had gone missing. The critics have been pointing to the lower output of the likes of the team’s hard workers like Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver and while that might be the case statistically, it’s now up to them and the new midfield structure to stand up. North has an emerging young midfield brigade that is on an upward tangent at the same time as Melbourne’s seemingly heads downhill. They meet at a critical time for the Demons and it will be on this hill that the game will be decided. The selection of who goes into the midfield mix of Pickett, Neal-Bullen, Rivers, Salem, Langdon, McVee or one of the youngsters like Tholstrup who according to the club’s website “comes into the club with an AFL-ready body”. Melbourne certainly needs AFL readiness to prove that it rise above recent disappointments and prove that it’s still a contender. A number of commentators have pointed to where Carlton, GWS and Sydney were at this time last year and where they finished. In each instance, those clubs adopted the mindset of the hunter and turned their seasons around in midstream. The Demons have been the hunted for three years when they occupied a place at the top of the table. Perhaps they’ve become too content with that role and it’s now time to start hunting. The week’s break has come at the right time to rest, take a deep breath and take on the challenge of the hunter. I’m tipping Melbourne to win by 20 points. THE GAME Melbourne v North Melbourne on Saturday 22 June 2024 at the MCG at 7.30pm HEAD TO HEAD Overall Melbourne 89 wins North Melbourne 82 wins 1 draw At the MCG Melbourne 56 wins North Melbourne 37 wins Last five times Melbourne 5 wins North Melbourne 0 wins The coaches Clarkson 0 wins Goodwin 2 wins THE LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 15.13.103 defeated North Melbourne 10.11.71 at Blundstone Arena, Round 21, 2023 The Kangaroos responded to the shellacking handed out by the Demons who blitzed them earlier in the season. Early in the second term at Blundstone Arena North held a 33 point lead before Melbourne reined them in to turn the deficit around. It was the brilliance of their small men, notably Kozzie Pickett and Kade Chandler that inspired the comeback. THE TEAMS MELBOURNE B B. Howes, S. May, T. Rivers HB C. Salem, A. Tomlinson, J. McVee C A. Neal-Bullen, C. Oliver, C. Windsor HF K. Chandler, H. Petty, J. Van Rooyen F K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, E. Langdon FOLL M. Gawn J. Viney, T. Sparrow I/C J. Bowey, T. McDonald, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner SUB K. Brown EMG B. Laurie, T. Fullarton, T. Woewodin IN K. Brown, K. Tholstrup, A. Tomlinson OUT J. Billings (omitted), B. Laurie (omitted), C. Petracca (ribs/spleen) NORTH MELBOURNE B A. Corr, C. Comben, T. Pink HB J. Archer, H. Sheezel, L. McDonald C Z. Fisher, L. Davies-Uniacke, B. Scott HF T. Powell, B. Teakle, E. Ford F P. Curtis, N. Larkey, C. Zurhaar FOLL T. Xerri, G. Wardlaw, J. Simpkin I/C W. Fisher, L. Shiels, C. Taylor, D. Tucker SUB D. Stephens EMG Z. Duursma, R. Hardeman, C. Harvey IN J. Simpkin, D. Stephens OUT K. Dawson (suspension), J. Stephenson (omitted) INJURY LIST: ROUND 15 Josh Schache — calf / available Marty Hore — calf / 1 - 2 weeks Jake Lever — knee / 1 - 2 weeks Jake Melksham — knee / 2 - 3 weeks Charlie Spargo — Achilles / TBC Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite