LAST DANCE by The Oracle

[Demonland 73,139]

Forget the wishful thinking from Magpie fans who think their team can perform yet another miracle and somehow snatch a place in the 2024 finals series when their team takes on the Demons at the MCG on Friday night. It ain’t gunna happen. They can whistle Dixie through their non-existent front teeth but the fact of the matter is that both teams have run their race. The game is a dead rubber — for each of them, this will be the last dance of the season. 

And given the history between the two clubs and the traditional rivalry that’s attached to their relationship, it’s unlikely that the thousands who turn up will be witnessing a dance of love like a slow waltz. Back in the good old days when there were only 12 teams in the competition, it would have been unthinkable that they were playing the last game sitting in 10th and 12th places respectively (and separated only by Essendon), but that’s the modern game as it hurtles towards an equally unthinkable possible grand final against two sides from Sydney. 

When the final round clash between Melbourne and Collingwood was first announced to take place on the Friday night of the ultimate round of the 2024 season, AFL officials, club personnel and the players and fans themselves were salivating at the thought of these teams fighting tooth and nail take part in finals glory but it hasn’t quite worked out that way. Now, it might not be the expected blockbuster but it could still pack in some of the action reminiscent of a final.

The recent history between these old rivals has also been somewhat volatile. Some would argue the outcomes of their two most recent matches were decided by sickening early game blows (both deemed “legitimate football acts”) that caused severe physical damage to Melbourne’s first and second draft picks from 2014 in Christian Petracca and Angus Brayshaw. The incidents certainly reinforced the lack of confidence and ability on the part of the Demons to hit their targets with ball in hand in those games and indeed, they suggest that they have routinely succumbed to heat and pressure applied by the Magpies.

This is clear from the results of the five meetings between the clubs since Melbourne’s premiership triumph in 2021 (see table below) of which Collingwood has won four. The Pies have scored a total of 59 goals 35 behinds (62.76% scoring accuracy) and conceded 42 goals 63 behinds (40%) to the Demons to overwhelm their opponents despite being well behind in scoring shots. There’s little doubt that for a Melbourne victory, it needs to improve its forward connection, to kick straight and to considerably tighten up the pressure rating. 

That’s easier said than done when you consider that the Demons go into the game with an emaciated on ball division lacking Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw and Sparrow from it’s premiership lineup. Last week, Jack Viney was expected to carry it all himself with help from big Max in the ruck and midfield newcomer Trent Rivers but can we expect him to do it against its 2023 premiership counterpart (minus De Goey)?

Let’s not forget that last week Collingwood, with Nick Daicos in full flow, stormed home to overturn an 18-point deficit in the last few minutes to beat Brisbane by a point. Melbourne will be relying on Alex Neal-Bullen to repeat his performance from King’s Birthday in nullifying the young Magpie star in his last game for the club. Despite the hyphen’s achievement, it still didn’t spell victory against a team depleted by injury. All because that team had enough players like Daicos’ brother Josh who had the ability and decision-making nous to find space and effectively deliver the football to teammates further afield. And a bit of help from ruckmen intent on hoeing into Max while the umpires looked askance at their multiple indiscretions.

Throughout the last season or so, coach Simon Goodwin has promised fans that he was working on the front of goal problem. There have been some glimmers of hope and last week against the Suns, we saw a ray of sunshine with Daniel Turner, Harry Petty and Jacob van Rooyen scoring multiple goals in the same game. 

Their task will be more difficult this week with the Collingwood faithful who always turn up in their droves to provide the noise of affirmation to bring their side home. Both teams are coming off six day breaks but the Demons are coming off a flight back from an interstate game played in hot trying conditions. These are the main reasons why I’m tipping Collingwood to take the lead and win the last dance by 17 points.

 

THE GAME

Melbourne v Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 23 August 2024 at 7.40pm

HEAD TO HEAD 

Overall Collingwood 155 wins Melbourne 85 wins 5 drawn
At the MCG Collingwood 87 wins Melbourne 64 wins 3 drawn
Last five meetings Collingwood 4 wins Melbourne 1 win
The Coaches McCrae 4 wins Goodwin 1 win 

LAST TIME THEY MET

Collingwood 14.5.89 defeated Melbourne 6.15.51 at the MCG in Round 13, 2024 

Max Gawn’s 45 hitouts and 9 marks weren’t enough to overcome a major bout of the yips in front of goals. From the outset, Melbourne’s forwards were hitting the post with gettable shots for goal while Collingwood’s couldn’t miss, even the tough ones from difficult angles.  Just before quarter time, Christian Petracca suffered what has been described as “life-altering injury” that ruptured his spleen when Magpie skipper Darcy Moore plowed through his back and ribs. The Pies gained the momentum among the chaos but, while Alex Neal-Bullen held Nick Daicos to 15 possessions and a goal, brother Josh got off the leash to take out best on ground honours with 34 touches.

THOSE LAST FIVE MEETINGS 

Round 13, 2024 — Collingwood 14.5.89 defeated Melbourne 6.15.51

Qualifying Final, 2023 — Collingwood 9.6.60 defeated Melbourne 7.11.53

Round 13, 2023 — Melbourne 8.18.66 defeated Collingwood 9.8.62

Round 21, 2022 — Collingwood 15.6.96 defeated Melbourne 13.11.89

Round 13, 2022 — Collingwood 12.10.82 defeated Melbourne 8.8.56

THE TEAMS 

MELBOURNE

B M. Hore, T. McDonald, J. McVee
HB J. Bowey, A. Tomlinson, B. Howes 
C E. Langdon, J. Viney, C. Salem 
HF K. Chandler, H. Petty, J. Billings 
F K. Pickett, J. Van Rooyen, B. Fritsch 
FOLL M. Gawn, A. Neal-Bullen, T. Rivers
I/C B. Howes, J. Melksham, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner T. Woewodin SUB B. Laurie
EMG K. Brown, M. Jefferson

IN B. Laurie, T. Woewodin 

OUT J. Lever (illness), T. Sparrow (ankle)

COLLINGWOOD

B C. Dean, D. Moore, B. Maynard
HB W. Hoskin-Elliott, J. Howe, I. Quaynor
C S. Sidebottom, J. Crisp, J. Daicos
HF B. Hill, L. Schultz, J. Elliott
F B. McCreery, M. Cox, P. Lipinski
FOLL D. Cameron, N. Daicos, S. Pendlebury
I/C E. Allan, J. Noble, W. Parker, J. Richards SUB F. MacRae
EMG B. Frampton, N. Long, J. Ryan

IN E. Allan, C. Dean, F. Macrae, J. Richards

OUT J.Bytel (omitted), B.Frampton (omitted), N. Long (omitted), D. McStay (managed)

Injury List: Round 24

Tom Sparrow — ankle / season
Steven May — ribs / season
Clayton Oliver — knee, ribs / season
Caleb Windsor — ankle / season
Charlie Spargo — Achilles / season
Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite

[Rolling Stone 158]

Cringing at the thought of Melbourne and Collingwood having the last waltz together.

Go Dees. Step on their two left feet.

[Spirit of the Demon 256]

Good luck to Nibbler on his last game as a Demon.

You'll always be welcomed back at the G and forever a Melbourne premiership player.