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Importance of top four

Little Goffy
in Melbourne Demons

Featured Replies

Posted

Ok, I was bored...

Just how important is it to come top four?

Well, discounting the value of home-ground advantage, and discounting the possibility of the week of rest...

If each finals game is considered a 50-50 chance (someone has to win!)...

If you do a basic sequence of probability (blah blah), coming top four TRIPLES your chances compared to a mere top-eight finish.

About 18% vs about 6%.

I just thought I'd throw that out there - now you have the stat. If people care enough I'll show the working too.

What a different one measely game can make.

How big a deal do you lot think it is to get home grounds in finals?

Demons lost 1 game at 'g last year, best Home advantage in the comp!

  • Quote
    •  

    Ok, I was bored...

    Just how important is it to come top four?

    Well, discounting the value of home-ground advantage, and discounting the possibility of the week of rest...

    If each finals game is considered a 50-50 chance (someone has to win!)...

    If you do a basic sequence of probability (blah blah), coming top four TRIPLES your chances compared to a mere top-eight finish.

    About 18% vs about 6%.

    I just thought I'd throw that out there - now you have the stat. If people care enough I'll show the working too.

    What a different one measely game can make.

    How big a deal do you lot think it is to get home grounds in finals?

    Demons lost 1 game at 'g last year, best Home advantage in the comp!

    Two things that enhance your chances of winning a premiership -

    (a) MUST finish top four and hopefully get home finals all the way and

    (B) have a fit and healthy list at the business end.

    After that, you've just got to win three games.

  • Quote

    Two things that enhance your chances of winning a premiership -

    (a) MUST finish top four and hopefully get home finals all the way and

    (B) have a fit and healthy list at the business end.

    After that, you've just got to win three games.

    Correct thats what i was gunna say...

  • Quote
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