I have lost count of the number of times the old adage about the need to ignore pre season form has been proven to be correct and this year's AFL NAB Challenge is yet another case in point. Fremantle, Melbourne and Collingwood were the only undefeated teams in that series but the former has yet to record a win in the opening three rounds of AFL competition while the other two have managed only one win each and in both cases, they fell in by a solitary point. 

This week those other two front runners and old time traditional Victorian rivals meet in what will be a do or die struggle at the MCG. The loser of the Magpies v Demons clash will be sitting in tatters close to the foot of the table while the winner will have some hope restored for the season ahead.  Strangely enough for the AFL and despite the early disappointing form of their respective teams' performances, both coaches can rest comfortably in the knowledge that their positions are safe for this year at least. Paul Roos is departing anyway as part of the succession plan he set up which has installed Simon Goodwin as coach in waiting. Nathan Buckley was reappointed to his position just three weeks ago and whilst three weeks is a long time in football, Eddie McGuire keeps on insisting that his man is safe.

There's been little to differentiate the two teams' performances to date this season so, in determining the final outcome of this battle, little things can mean a lot. As between these competitors, Collingwood will gain the advantage of Tribunal outcomes because it stands to benefit from the return of Steele Sidebottom from suspension while Melbourne's Bernie Vince who was good last week against North Melbourne is out this week. Last year's best and fairest winner Vince, starred when these teams last met and he will be sorely missed this weekend.

On the other side of "little" things are the ruck battles. Melbourne has been getting great value from Max Gawn who comprehensively beat the AFL's number one in this area last week but for the second week in a row, the opposition exposed the Demons' weakness in back up tall timber in the last line of defence. Two weeks ago, they couldn't counter Joe Daniher's height at full forward and in Hobart, it was Goldstein who was the destroyer with five goals.

Melbourne has not been as dangerous up forward with its own talls despite the fact that for the first time in ages, it is regularly getting the ball inside its own forward 50 more times than the opposition. That statistic is the diametrically opposite to what was taking place with this team only two years ago and it is what contributes to my belief that there will be major improvements to the team's overall performances coming soon. Perhaps, even as soon as this Sunday. 

Melbourne to win by 15 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG Sunday 17 April 2016 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Collingwood 146 wins Melbourne 80 wins 5 drawn

At the MCG Collingwood 79 wins Melbourne 55 wins 3 drawn

Last Five Meetings Collingwood 4 wins Melbourne 1 win

The Coaches: Buckley 2 wins Roos 1 win

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports 3, Channel 7 live at 3.00pm

Radio - Triple M 3AW 

THE BETTING

Collingwood $1.53 to win Melbourne $2.50 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 13.13.91 defeated Collingwood 7.12.54 at MCG in Round 18, 2015

The Demons shrugged off some indifferent form to record their first win over the Magpies in seven years - a comprehensive 37-point victory that had many supporters scratching their heads over why the team was unable to consistently produce such form on a regular basis. Jesse Hogan and Bernie Vince kicked two goals each and the latter was best on the ground.

THE TEAMS 

COLLINGWOOD 

B: Ben Sinclair, Nathan Brown, Tom Langdon

HB: Goldsack, Ben Reid, Alan Toovey

C: Adam Oxley, Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom

HF: Travis Varcoe, Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey

F: Alex Fasolo, Travis Cloke, Jeremy Howe

FOLL: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams

I/C: James Aish, Jarryd Blair, Jack Crisp, Levi Greenwood

EMG: Mason Cox, Matthew Goodyear, Brent Macaffer,

IN: Steele Sidebottom, Alan Toovey, Travis Varcoe

OUT: Matthew Goodyear (omitted), Brayden Maynard (hamstring), Marley Williams (foot)

MELBOURNE

B: Neville Jetta, Tom McDonald, Tomas Bugg

HB: Lynden Dunn, Heritier Lumumba, Christian Salem

C: James Harmes, Dom Tyson, Clayton Oliver

HF: Jack Watts, Sam Frost, Matt Jones

F: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Ben Kennedy

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: Angus Brayshaw, Jayden Hunt, Cameron Pedersen, Josh Wagner

EMG: Jack Grimes, Alex Neal-Bullen, Billy Stretch

In: Angus Brayshaw, Jayden Hunt, Cam Pedersen

Out: Aaron vandenBerg (ankle), Bernie Vince (suspension), Billy Stretch (omitted)

New: Jayden Hunt (21, Brighton Grammar) 

Eddie did state his man is safe. But he also stated he would have no hesitation in sacking him if the moment arrived. ie. when the jungle drums began beating