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Trying to better understand our on-field performance this year, I've crunched the numbers. Does our scoring drop off as the game goes on? Do our opponents beat us more convincingly in the latter parts of games? If the answer is yes, the stats are pointing to us running out of legs. Nine lamentable rounds: 36 quarters. Average scores this year for quarters 1-4 are 16, 17, 15 and 14 points, respectively. So not much revealed there, apart from an inability to score. Perhaps a slight drop off after half time. More instructive though is the fact that as we get slightly worse during a game, the opposition lifts. They've booted on average 25, 32, 33 and 29 points against us. Most telling is the extent to which we are being thumped. We've been outscored by an average of 60% in 1st quarters, 90% in 2nd quarters, 130% in 3rd quarters, and have contained our opponents to 100% above our final stanza scores. The verdict? I say that the figures show either we aren't as fit as opposition teams or we are simply more weary. If games lasted just one quarter, we'd have 3 wins by now. Conversely, we have not won a single quarter for the year following the long break. We've played 36 quarters; we've won but 5. Verdict: We need to get fitter. Alternatively, if training is too harsh at the moment, reducing the pressure may see us running out games better during the rest of the year. The message

I have been heartily disappointed with our performances to date and other than and because of Round 1, have picked us to lose each week since. But I believe we'll beat Sydney because: Our poor relative fitness level won't be as problematic on the smaller SCG Sydney will be without Goodes who has proven over the years to be unstoppable when we play them Jamar will dominate (and that's whether Mumford plays or not. I admit I don't know why Mumford is out and whether he'll be back, but I don't think it will make a difference) it's not obvious but bit by bit players are starting to understand what is needed and those that don't won't be picked this week (ie, Sylvia) it's not obvious but bit by bit the coaches are starting to understand which players should be playing where. For example, Davey had no gametime on the ball in the first few weeks. He's gradually getting more time there and in so doing getting into the play more. He is still, though, our only reliable disposer by foot of the ball, unfortunately while Ted Richards is an honest trier, he doesn't have the combination of size and mobility to play on Clark McKenzie will tag Josh Kennedy and limit his ability to influence the game. Now, I might be a delusional optimist but early in the week is the right time to make these predictions. It gives everyone an opportunity to start thinking positively. However, as this is Responsible Gambling Awareness Week it is incumbent upon me to recommend that you don't place a bet on Melbourne to win based on my optimism.