Demon Dynasty

Player / Team Stats Form Guide Rnds 4 to 6, 2019 vs Season 2018 Note: No hit outs to advantage included. Maxy likely to be No.1 for Rnds 4 to 6 otherwise

No more one paced plodders please. Off the mark speed and agility/ evasive skills needed, to assist in finding space, time to steady and deliver more accurately and/or finish running into goal. We also need some overhead contested marking beasties. We lost Hogan and add to this players out of form and no Pedo bear (not a regular i realise) vs last season. Our top 5 were taking about 7.5 contested marks per match last season vs only 5 so far. Might not seem like much but that's off 30%+. Team is down 14 places to 16th taking 9.3 per match vs 2nd only to the Eagles last season averaging 13.1 Again about 30% off. No Hogan and out of form Maxy (in the air vs last season), T-mac and Weids all impacting. No Lever either of course. We have also dropped 4 places in intercepts now sitting at 7th from 3rd last season.

That may be the case but that doesn't mean you aren't close to the mark LH. If i may also add my amature view to the over abundance of mid size player view/comment. IMHO that over balance is also bereft of 'off the line burst speed and agility/evasive skills'. All very one paced and straight ahead often leading to over use of handball instead of a balance, using more burst/evade into space with legs / run > resulting in a little more efficient disposal/finish skills, especially the ability to escape opponent and steady to hit up inside 50. Instead we are in tight congested space and finding ourselves using the shallow bail out far too often under pressure or 'perceived' pressure. Also does that imbalance then pressure us into overuse of handball which then lends itself to a self fulfilling game style that invokes more panicy handballs in close as players are generally closer to the contest, unable to work their way into space on opponent, especially space forward offering a forward release handball to gain yardage quickly vs mostly lateral or behind? Forward handballs more likely to start the overlap and run vs alternatives? At the mo we just dont link up / overlap / run often enough using this method. Result...too easy to defend > increased turnovers. Scored off more often as a result & less scoring from stoppages for us? The Cats seem very adept at doing this when they have their balance right and are in good form. Many teams unable to counter it effectively or for long enough during a match to win the tug of war. This wouldn't be so bad if we had a top liner CHF who could monster contested grabs or get ball to small crumbed. Having none of the either also doesn't help our inbalance/game style from mid field. Is this making us easier to cover and defend on the stoppage outlets? Most other teams, starting with the prelim Eagles (and a few lessor lights during last season who weren't quite as adept) have now worked us out? The data shows we are still up there with contested and clearances, only dropping off a little in clearance post the Tigers. However it might also be the improved pressure from the opp / their ability to easily close off and disrupt our outlets at stoppage due to our inbalance, causing the quality of those clearances to fall away vs last season. More turnovers as a result back to the opp. That weight of numbers sees them win their fair/equal share. Sees us chasing more often v last season. They are then able to clear/finish even more as they are fresher than us as the game wears on. Our guys still doing similar 'work' on the inside to last season but the finish more muddy and cruddy in quality? Having some real quality wingers to me is a 'partial' short term fix and at least 1 insanely evasive / burst speed insider (think Shiels / Ablett type...wishful thinking!). As a result of our inbalance the Opp in most cases (not all, at least those that have a quick / cleanish outside crew mopping up) win the inside / outside tug of war battle. In most cases we dont. Couple this with two key forwards who have had zero impact and aren't taking marks i50, especially contested, plus zero small speedy crumbers to mop and chase down/pressure. Our woes potentially fixable but also not, if ignored and allowed to fester. Are they only fixable via future clever draft/trades? On the surface it would appear that way for mine. If so the next question for me is how many drafts etc and what time line are we looking at till we balance out?

LH what if that isn't the case and the FD (or some/many/the few most important!??) aren't seeing it that way? Surely the proof of the pudding here is in the eating as they say. Shouldn't we be judging their cred more on their picks so far vs what 'we/some think' they should be doing?

Good point LDV. My understanding is it only counts once they've crossed the line vs previous years they had to be in a "play on" situation (ie, kicking it to themselves first) before it was counted. Keep in mind that the 3 week comparisons I posted above only apply to the current year (excluding the team score comparison to last year). I also only include 'effective disposals' in the weighted score so that should go a little way towards weeding out any old kick/handball that might not favour us, including those from Lewis/Salem on kick ins for example.

Have you tried magnifying it DV? Trying to squash it a little. If i don't it tends to dissapear off screen when phones are held in portrait mode. Landscape usually works but ppl don't usually scroll phones in landscape.

Cheers Buck✌? Can't do averages on other teams but happy to do a one off. Too much work putting blocks of data together over 3 to 4 weeks outside of us unfortunately. Divorce more likely than usual! Pick a team/week you want to look at and I'll post player, team, top 6 and bottom 6 scores no problem. One offs don't take too much effort. Happy to do say Cats or Eagles from this Rnd. Score wont be based on averages but at leaat a rough form guide/snapshot. I'll also post ours from same round using same method to compare including top & bottom 6. In answer to seasonal in form team scores, we were averaging a team weighted score of 60.95 for the entire 2018 season. The first three Rnds we averaged approx 14% below that and the last three rounds we were again off by approx 5%. Thats a fair improvement but still a chunk away from our 'normal' form/output across last year.

Player / Team Stats Form Guide Rnds 1 to 3 vs Rnds 4 to 6, 2019 A lift in statistical performance/output trends from some but a severe drop off from others. Overall we see lift off in a team team sense in the second latest block of three matches but off a very low base vs the first three rounds. We gained the benefits of Nev in Rnd 5 but then lost that immediately. We now lose Viney from the mix for a few weeks from here. While the introduction of Stretch has given us something, the form of Weids, Hunt, Fritsch and Melk (to a lessor degree vs those three) has dropped off significantly from the first three rounds and, with McDonald in the backline, this has left us super impotent up forward. The absence of anyone playing a significant role as a forward in the top 10, with the exception of possibly Harmes, might be an indicator that some aspects of the team are going ok to average (mid field ok / defenders average so far) vs a failed game forward of center to this point. Note: Players with an asterisk are those, for example, who may have only played one match in the 2nd block (Rnds 4 to 6) or one/none in the first block etc. Marty Hore and Nev great examples. Marty having only played one match in the first block and Nev only one in the second. As we are unable to compare averages in these situations we should be more sceptical of % / Rank comparisons vs when we have averages to work on.

Waverley Park will be free in 2022

I recall going to a training session the year after at the Junction and speaking to a trainer about our prospects in 95. He said they (I assume he meant the club) felt 94 was the one that got away.

We sure do. We are a slow panicky turnover king team that can't run the ball with link up play consistantly, cant hold on to the ball with possession footy (worst disposal team in the AFL), cant hit up targets or convert virtually any ground ball to goals inside 50 nor keep it locked in our 50 with whatever press we are attempting. The opp runs it out.of the press generally with ease and they're off to the races usually transitioning far too easily into an open forward line and converting at a high % as a result. Not hard as we are generally one paced and can't chase down (Hunt the one exception on rare occasions ...and now Jeffy IF he can get going) or close down quickly enough. When we do get it inside 50 (mostly bombing) our forwards aren't even taking many contested marks. T-mac & Weids averaging a massive 2.2 marks per game between them inside 50 prior to the Tigers match. Neither of them impacting the scoreboard. We get a stack of clearances and contested but that's about it. Very little on the outside spread to stretch and make our opponents chase us and fatigue. Leaving them pretty fresh when we turn it over...which we do alot as the worst turnover team in the AFL. The opp does exactly the reverse at stoppages. Having at least one (sometimes two) player/s sitting on the outside (skinny and/or fat side) waiting for the spilled or knock on ball to come out then linking up inside (or along the line) on the overlap for the easy hit up inside 50. We play the zone almost always and are too slow (or lazy...bit of both?) to close down space on opponents quickly enough to pressure or force enough turnovers. As a result we are the easiest team to play and score on in the AFL at present. Just a little bit of work to do!

As the original tenant of the G... why aren't we training on it??

Not quick enough at this point to play at HF. Bring him into the mid field now that Viney is out which might bring us a better slightly outside balance. If we could snare Cameron with Tracc and maybe throw O-Mac and Weid plus a few picks I'd take it, but otherwise no.

No we aren't our inside coal face is still fine at extracting the pill. Ranked 2nd in the league just behind Port and only averaging 3.8 contested possessions less than last season's averages (ranked No.1). Not sure where people are getting this impression from. All our woes are on the outside spread and run (lack of off HB and through the middle, outside of Frosty who is dodgy with his finish) AND our horrible disposal skills in general INCLUDING most of the guys running through the mid field. We are getting smashed with the loose ball on the run and spread, uncontested dropping from 9th position in 2018 to last. Is this a result of poor set ups at stoppages and too many see ball get ball mids all going at the pill at once not sitting off minding their opponent on the inside or calling for the clearance? More than likely. Some of the stoppage set ups and play are rubbish with no outside coverage. The opp just knocks it loose and they're off with a quick runner playing loose on the periphery. Poor set ups = poor coaching? Or just poor mid field I.Q. generally with an inability to learn on the run or leaders not leading? Turnovers (disposal skills when we are getting the ball back) the 2nd worst in the AFL compared to last year sitting 9 rungs better at 11th. Some teams can handle plenty of turnovers though as long as you punish your opponent more than they do when they turn it over. With our method of delivery so horrid coming inside 50 and our completely dysfunctional out of form Key Talls (who aren't taking contested marks & no quality smallish crumbers) forward line, we are suffering allover mainly due to this massive mid field/forward disconnect/crappy finish/connection scenario. We are where we are by the sum of all the above missing pieces, but contested isn't one of them.

On that basis Troy are you suggesting we would be better of trading out our recruiting team rather than Tracc ??

Specifically referring to that photo (like mostly engine room players) SW. Up until the Tigers game where so many are now losing confidence, our engine room has been getting it done albeit crudely coming inside 50. Even after the Tiges debacle we are still No.3 in Contested and No.3 in clearances (on averages). Our ability in the center not compromised (yet) with Maxy & the boys still firing!! .... No.1in Center clearances. No change on 2018! Some teams getting the better of us at stoppage clearances ...but we've improved out of sight here up 7 places to No .4 here from No.11 for 2018. Where we have dropped off a little is our inside 50 dominance. No.4 down 3 places from No.1 last year. Delivery shizen of course maybe not as shizen but forwards not taking marks or converting either a huge prob. No.1 for marks inside 50 last season...down a massive 16 places now...almost dead last! The engine isn't the problem SW. It's what's happening once it gets out and when the Opp wins their fair share which they are going to on occasions. No team is ever going to dominate clearances and contested 100% of time. As we know other teams are ripping us apart once they get it out. Bottom of the heap on uncontested vs 9th last season and same with effective disposals. We aren't able to effect/impact as many contests once the ball is out as we aren't capable of getting there often enough. Goody's game plan isn't going to work as it stands especially with 666 in play and especially on the wide expanses of the G (i know I'm preaching to the converted here). Outside run, run off HB and marking in general non existent vs the comp and where we were last season. Especially up forward. And hence forwards not converting in general. Forward line hasn't really fired a shot all year.

It's only a waste if we chuck the towel in BC and don't look to fix the causes of how we got here and improve in all aspects of the FD. And the coach has played a big part. The boys in that shot are still trying their guts out.

Yes. You have to move heaven & a bit of earth sometimes to get what you want and obtain the ultimate prize. The top line clubs have been doing this for decades. Even the Bulldogs did it, once, and snared one! We are still in a window if alot goes right from here. Lets get it done Demons. P.S. not the greatest brain at any point...especially with drafts/trade details! Proceed with caution.

Might spoon it if Goody doesn't swallow his pride during the 4 day break and review/revamp the zone/press part of the game style plus recognize the need for speed off HB & placing our best ball users with a bit of pace out wide. If he does we can salvage something but finals are a bridge too far IMO as confidence is completely shot with most players. The situation is that bad many have moved into survival 'flight' mode disposal decisions ie; "Here you have it! Nah i dont want it, you have it back!". My amature look at it... It's time to go man on man for good chunks of a match and see who really wants it. Zone off only if we get our noses in front by a decent winning margin. The Ruck / engine room is the only aspect of our game that's showing any resemblance to 2018. Everywhere else is almost flat lining and on life support. Start with the engine room. But no major change. Just a decent oil change. A bit of burst speed / agility inside. Who? Can Tracc bring a little in place of Viney? If not who? Bit of Melk? But a massive 10 turnovers against the Tiges on Weds eve. Needs more time? Other issue.is.he doesnt defend / tackle. The forward line will only start to click once Pruess is back (98%+ fit) and Jeffy / Lockhart are at his feet with a bit of Jones in the pocket also IMO. Very small bursts in a mid field relief role only. The remainder on the bench (eg; approx 20% to 30% to keep him fresh). Who plays CHF? I have no idea but maybe T-Smith for a block of 3 to 4 matches In the hope he can eventually play out 3 to 4 quarters. If that fails maybe Keilty for a similar block. Weids is so far off AFL right now he needs a solid stint at Casey before his next recall once he finds his mojo. Hunt returns to HB for a decent block and see if he can get back to somewhere near 2017 form. We need more line breaking run and pace there. Forward craft / IQ poor at this point. Lockhart to stay and play deep sharing the role with chunk off the bench building up his tank and experience for a decent block. Some pace and good disposal needed off both wings via Salem, Fritschkreig, Melk and Harmes. Drill disposal skills for the remainder of the year. Whoever can't get reasonably close to AFL disposal levels (for their role played vs other AFL peers playing a similar role) is moved on at year's end. Hoping for a turnaround in skills, speed of ball movement, lime.breaking run, effective transistion off HB connecting with our forwards and manic defending / attack on the footy and ball carrier. Preparing for the worst.

Not at all. Apparently using the extended time off to audition for a place on the next "Biggest Loser"

Prefer Jeremy Cameron... Has the edge over Patton where it counts playing as a key forward (career averages)... > Marks inside 50 (elite) > Marks on a lead (elite) > Score involvements (6.4 per game!) > Goals (2.6 per game... elite). Finished 7th for average goals scored per game 2018 (just behind T-Mac) and presently leading the Coleman. Free agent. No brainer. Stats: Courtesy of AFL Stats Pro https://m.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Compare?playerIds=CD_I291821,CD_I293845&comparisonTab=h2h

Again....this all points to falling behind the eight ball vs other clubs, even stock ordinary ones like the Saints. Pert needs to instigate a full review of the FD at all levels including a possible assistant to help out Goody, sports science / high performance standards, the present state of the list and our trade/draft performance ASAP!! Bottom of the ladder from a Prelim appearance 6 months earlier is unacceptable and inexcusable and smells of amaturish/eyes off the ball standards creeping in post the Roos era.

Strength & Conditioning. Off the line speed also missing. Just my op but from what ive witnessed this season, the FD hasn't gotten our boys (the ones who had a full pre-season) to a level that enables them to compete with the best. We are getting matched with intensity around the ball (vs last season) by more teams, burst speed away from congestion (and direct opponent) and endurance running by most opponents in most quarters, the Swans an exception. The above issues masked somewhat on a smaller ground.