binman

One of my favorite non dees players. An absolute gun

I agree the blues will test us. I rate them very highly.

Barrett? That's funny. Next you'll be telling me Jimmy does too! But seriously, what does it say about the pies that the loss of one player can have such an impact? Talk he is the best player in the league is just plain ridiculous. A total gun, and i'd love to have him at the dees, but a better player than the bont, clarry, maxy and tracc? I don't think so. An argument could be made he is the single most important player to any one team. Though, maxy must be in that conversation too. The difference is we have an AA ruck in the twos. It's a huge problem for the pies that the loss of daicos, who after all is a flanker and/or mid (and teams have plenty of them on their lists- not at the dacicos level, but still) has such an impact on their sytems, method and fortunes. That is a big structural problem. And on the discussion of best, no one would argue clarry is in the top 5 Ayers in the AFL. Our record since he has been out has been simply phenomenal- and hardly commented on - particularly given tracc has been playing forward and we have basically run with our B team midfield. All things being equal, the blues who are down 2 of their 3 mids and have a banged up ruck, will go head to head at some point with Maxy, clarry, tracc and viney. Good luck with that.

Agree. And the paying overs talk is a bit misleading in the sense with the deal they made they were always going to give up draft picks. They would have expected to finish in the eight, no question. If they did their opportunity cost was say pick 12 and 30 or some such. Once the deal was done, the fact that the opportunity cost might be 4 and 24 doesn't really change much from their perspective - other than giving a rival a pretty big leg up.

We'll beat the blues - and jimmy will be all like: 'Typical comments from the blue and red colored glasses, happy clapper brigade. I mean get real. Of course we beat the blues - they had their two best mids and a key interceptor out. And yes Melbourne won by 5 goals, but with their outs and the injury to Cripps in the last 30 seconds of the game, a real contender would have thrashed them by 10 goals. I mean the signs are clear, Melbourne pick and choose and again only played a quarter of good football - that's not going to cut it against the Pi...., i mean Po.., i mean the Li..., i mean the Dogs, who unlike Melbourne are timing their run to perfection. Yes, yes, I know Melbourne have now won six games on end, but I simply can't get my head around why people are so confident Melbourne will beat the Hawks and the Swans. And please, I'm not being disingenuous, negative for being negative sakes, contrarian or trying to wind anyone up. Unlike most posters, I'm simply being objective, clear eyed and realistic. As I have predicted for weeks, I am confident Melbourne will lose three, sorry i mean two, of their final games. Nothing I have seen in the past few weeks has given me any reason to adjust that assessment. The Hawks showed the level they can play at with their win against the Pies. Who by the by just had an off day - all teams have them. The Pies are a great team as evidenced by their incredible record going back to their one point loss in the 2018 GF, three really clever rebuilding years at the bottom of the ladder under Buckley, then their narrow losses in finals last season to the Premiers and the rampaging Swans. And the Pies have an inspiring coach who actually knows how to motivate. Any team that can beat the Pies, even on an off day, is a huge chance to beat Melbourne. And don't start me on the bookies odds - yes Melbourne are clear favorites to win the flag now but that's just a reflection of the ladder, not form. And on the ladder, the ladder doesn't lie. Well, except when it does - often it papers over cracks or simply flatters. Whilst Melbourne are second with only two rounds to go in the season, only the most blindly optimistic posters will take solace in that. And besides they won't be second after the hawks and swans beat them. And then the ladder won't lie. And speaking of coaches, Mitchell will run rings around Goodwin tactically. And the Swans - well, i know they lost the grand final last year by 15 goals - all teams have an off day - and may not even make finals this year, but they are an incredible team in incredible form (so much better than Melbournes'), are playing at their fortress and will be desperate to win. And as the coaching Svengali Mcrae says, the game is still played mostly above the shoulders. The Swan's sheer will to win will bridge the huge gulf in ladder position (which doesn't reflect form), talent and system. And yes, Melbourne will be playing for a home final at the G in front of 90k people, but Melbourne simply won't have the same will to win, because a top 4 spot is sewn up. And Goodwin. And Longmire will run rings around Goodwin tactically. And Melbourne will still be reeling from their loss to the Hawks. I mean, seriously, how does a serious contender recover from being touched up by the 16th placed team late in the season when history shows you need to be playing your very best football to be a genuine threat? And before any happy clapper, Pie haters jump on me (you know who you are), yes i know the hawks smashed them. But as the genius Mcrae said, they got important feedback from that loss, new feedback to add to the important feedback they got from being touched up by the Blues the previous week. And feedback from those losses is so much more valuable than Goodwin's 'learnings' from Melbourne's uninspiring wins over the Saints, Lions, Crows, Tigers, North and Blues - or even their 'learnings' from Melbourne's win over the Pies on KB (when the Pies had an off day - all teams have them).'

I cant see Clarry playing at Casey. Straight back into the ones is my guess.

I'll be there. A great place to watch footy these days. And somewhere near my place - unlike Casey

A query I have, which I alluded to, is does he have the myopic, hyper intense drive (not to mention the required level of selfishness) the very best athletes - actually the very best in any field for that matter - have? It's that drive that differentiates the Traccs, Olivers, Gawns and Bonts from the De Goeys and Stringers. He strikes me a bit like clarry and maxy in their young days - a bit immature and a bit of a lad. One they matured they went to the next level. Hopefully the same will be true for Jackson.

You've got 'shot down in flames' because blind Freddy can see the kid's a gun with pure footy instincts and skills Kid bring the operative word. LIke every gun ruck and/or KPF before him he won't hit his peak until he is 25. English, who still hasn't hit his peak but is getting closer, is a good example of this - as of course so was maxy. The only thing that will prevent him becoming a superstar, other than injury, will be if he doesn't get elite level fit and/or doesn'thave the drive. Same was true of maxy. He was brilliant in that game. His fumbles and errors in the last were a function of not being fit enough - it's clear from his body shape he is not elite fit (which is a worry I reckon) I wished stayed at the dees - in my opinion he was stupid not to. And freo were stupid to get him now. Wait three years, utilise Darcy who is also a gun, and get him closer to his peak. Would hardly had to pay anymore. One key reason that would have been better is they've snookered themselves in regard to Darcy. Both need to be full time rucks and they now need Darcy out for Jackson to play his best footy and for them to maximise their return on investment.

Is this satire?

Yep, good comparison.

Amiss can play

How does it work then if all contenders lose key players? Daicos is much more important to us than petty. We have our leading goal scorer for the last few years in fritter to come back in. And for good measure we have bb and Grundy in reserve and tmac one week away from returning from injury. To replace daicos, the pies have, check notes, no one. And Murphy might be back for finals, but still a big loss And the lions haven't looked thesame side since Ashcroft went out. And he's not coming back. We can cover petty. Doesn't move the dial much.

Yep. Right you are. Two week amnesty.

There's a one day amnesty on the death ride.

Yeah, look as i said you may well be right. It's all guess work - in large part because of the media's bizarre refusal to at the very least include loading in their discussion. If you are right, it is a huge gamble. As Selwyn Griffith noted on the dl podcast a huge consideration is loading creates an additional risk (ie in addition to the normal risks of injury in games) of injury. That's a massive additional risk to take only four weeks from finals - particularly foe a team thst already seemed to have a performance advantage over their opposition. Let's day you are right. In that scenario, perhaps Murphy's injury may not happen. Murphy is a critical ayer for the pies because of intercept marking and speed to gey back on when oppo teams turn the ball over and counter attack. Let"s say its a four week injury. He won't be back to eve of finals. If there program mirrored ours he'd have 8 weeks to come back in the way clarry has (not saying his injury was loaf related, but i wouldn't rule it out). There's also the psychological aspect. Historically you want to be playing your best footy NOW. Not losing to the 16th team on the ladder 4 games our from finals, and then have to back up off a six day break against a the reigning premiers who may need to win to make finals. All week the pies players, who have received nothing but ridiculously hyperbolic praise all season, will instead have to deal with the equally ridiculous 'has the pies bubble burst' rhetoric tbat will saturate the footy media - not to mention the all pervasive social media ecosystem. Unlike us, the pies have not had practice in dealing with being questioned en masse.

I think these are totally reasonable points. It is absolutely possible that the Pies evident fatigue and form slump is loading related. I wondered the same thing. But the conclusion i arrived at is that it is unlikely to be the case. You might be right, but i don't think they can be doing it now. Teams can only do the extra training loads in and around the bye period, because the two week break gives them some chance to recover. And then maybe a top up after. Maybe they are still in the post loading phase - they definitely looked fatigued from the get go to my eye. And they never looked like coming back in the last as is their normal modus operandi. But i don't think so. I would have thought it is way, way too close to finals to not want to be at your very best. Or close to your very best. It's not just needing time to, for want of better word, taper and be in good shape for finals. Teams also need a few weeks in, or close to, optimal shape to perfect their final's game plan (which only works properly when at full fitness) - and any specific strategies, roles etc. etc. Take our example. We have been progressively fresher and running out games from the giants game on. The improvement has been incremental but steady. Each week week stronger and faster for longer. I think we are almost cherry ripe, and will be against the blues next week. There is no way we play like we did last week in terms of method if we are are not vey close to our optimal shape. We simply would not have the run to implement say the fantastic over lap running or have the ball in constant motion. Same goes for our wins over the lions and the crow. We need a few weeks of being in top shape to drill our final's method in and play at the elite level we want to play in finals. I think it much more likely that the pies were fatigued for the old fashioned reason - two incredibly physically and psychologically draining back to back games against Port and the blues. They would not have been able to do anything but recover after those two games - let alone additional loads. No way. And the hawks came out and hunted and smashed them - knowing full well they would be fatigued. Port are not fatigued because of loading either i don't think. They are struggling for the same reason as the Pies - back to back epics and now a third. It is so similar to the last 3 games of our season last year - Pies, Blues and Lions. I thought we would get there, but really the signs were obvious - we never really had the run in the legs post bye we did in 2021. When we came up against the pies, we blitzed in the first half but ran out of the steam in the last to go down by 7 in an epic. We snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the blues the next week, with the Koz wonder goal - but again we were gassed in the last. We blitzed the Lions at the Gabba by 9 goals in the last round and i thought we're in top shape - here we go. But again the signs were there - we only kicked 5 goals in the second half, and only one in the last q (we led by 11 goals at half time). We never got into optimal shape - close, but we just didn't run out out games in the last 6 matches like we did in 2021. And i have zero doubt those last three games completely flattened us. Even with the pre finals bye, we were gassed and a shell of our best in our two finals. That is what Port and the Pies are now experiencing. Except they have it even worse. Both have just played 3 intense matches in row - with more to come. And i suspect Port and the Pies both have injuries from their games yesterday. The Pies have lost two in a row and Port four! Port have the Giants next week, which even if they win will still be a super tough, physical and taxing game. They play Freo in Perth next and finish the season against the tigers. That is a very tough run. And the Pies play the cats next Friday night (off a six day break), the lions at Marvel the following week, which will be incredibly bruising - and finish the season against the Bombers in front of 90k with maybe the bombers needing to win to make finals. Three absolute epic games. And three very, very taxing games. That's why yesterdays Cats Port game was so huge. I reckon Port has to finish second and play week one at AO to have any chance of winning the flag. I cant see them doing so now. We really need to go nuts today and bank some percentage to ensure we are above the Lions if we finish on equal points with them (go freo!)

That presser is amazing. Mcrae looks like he had been on an all night speed bender at a techno club. Feedback. I love it.

It was the perfect result. Port lost. Tough game that hopefully they struggle to come up from. And the cats win, but at home really should have done so much more impressively.

It's not a willingness to run and score. It's is the ability to do so. Big difference. Impassible to play we have in the last few week when fatgued. Look at port and the pies, the two teams most consider to he the most agressive, high octane teams (I don't- we are). Both look very fatigued yesterday which given how intense their previous two games were is not surprising. The mighty pies scoring machine was 29 points at half time! A reminder that in 2022 at this stage we were also trying to score heavily and were also really aggressive with our ball movement. And that followed exactly the same pattern as 2021 ie dour in the middle of the year(because of fatigue) before ramping it up big time as we neared final. Which is exactly the same pattern as wer'e seeing agsin this year. Coincidence? Possibly- but unlikely. In 2021 we could only manage to score 65 points in our 20 point loss to the dogs in round 19 In round 20 we scored 128 to demolish the suns. And didn't score less than a hundred for the rest of the season- including of course our barnstorming finals run The common thread in all those wins games was, on the back of phenomenal fitness, running over teams in the last quarter - stronger for longer in 2022, we scored 100 points in our loss to the dogs in round 19. Hammered freo in Perth in round 20. Went out super hard against the pies in round 21 and blitzed them the first half. We were less dynamic in our narrow win over the blues in round 22. And absolutely destroyed the lions at the gabba in round 23, leading by 11 goals at half. The common thread in all four games in 2022 was running out of gas in the last quarter Signs on that front look so, so much better this year. We didn't run out any games in the back half of 2022 like we did against the Lions, Crows and Tigers

Good thing we're not a big scalp - well at least not according to 95% of football pundits all season.

The umps won't fall for that

C'mon cats!

C'mon. Choco? Wotcha talking about Willis? Our most successful coach since norm smith for pete sake. The last time we finished top 4 in three consecutive years was 1958-60. He stuffed up last year? Waste a generational list? I would have thought as a long time dees fans you'd appreciate how hard it is to win a flag. We have one. And are likely contenders for several mote years. All under goody. Seriously, he deserves more respect.

Are you being serious. You weren't a fan till the last 6-8 weeks? Goody won a bloody flag two seasons back! When did you start supporting the dees? 2022?