binman

What I find annoying is it always goes around in circles.

How about: Dan stick with the plan and be a Dee. If you don't, Houston, we have a problem.

Or at the very least his ankle.

I think the last para is spot on. No doubt conditioning is a big issue, so it's hard to judge our method. But there is no doubt that out relative lack of foot skill (and handball skills?) hurts us big time with the turnover game. We give it back too often and players like salo and bowey have dropped off in terms of their ability to hit high risk kicks coming out of our back half. In our back 7, or mid for that matter, who would you trust to hit a high risk kick to the corridor? For me, probably only mcvee and tmac now. That ain't gonna cut it. Which is why i think our greatest need is flankers who are elite kicks and elite runners not mids.

No, is the short answer. Contest and defence are still fundamental Particularly if contest includes pressure. Teams that can't apply elite pressure are not going to win a flag. Sure fast ball movement from the back half is now more important, but pressure is what creates turnovers. And it's really all about turnover now. The pies are a great example. Last year they combined pressure, contest and speed (though they often lost the pressure count in the first two thirds of the season- that changed come finals). It's this combination of needing quick players with decent foot skills and applying crazy heat in the contest that makes the game so taxing now. My feeling is this is a big factor in why performance had been so variable this season acrrosd the competition. I can never remember a season so volatile and unpredictable in terms of results and margins. Take Sydney's loss on the weekend gone. Ten years ago they would have been written off as a flag chance. But does anyone seriously think they're not still a red hot chance of winning the flag? That said our high performance program no doubt reflected our playing style and personele in the last few years- anaerobic power athletes like Jack, trac and clarry crashing into packs. Perhaps the greater emphasis, and need for aerobic athletes like nibbler, langers and Windsor has created a challenge for our program. And found us out as perhaps we don't have enough such players. As layzie notes, come finals contest, defence and pressure becomes king again.

Euphemism?

At the top of my list of dees I'd love to have dinner with. Good on ya langers.

I 100% agree In fact I'd say they are the the two key reasons. Won't stop Selwyn getting some heat but.

Agree. And both teams really looked to exploit that when they played us.

There's a few reasons why we are 15th for turnover diff I reckon. Number one is fitness. It's an incredibly taxing style of play aerobically and I don't think we have ever got fit enough. The pies have struggled on turnover for the same reason. I think our poor skills is another key factor - we give the ball back too easily and often don't take advantage when we win a turnover. That's exacerbated by not being able to field our best 23 often enough. And implementing a new model is hard- particularly for the defence which has found it hard im the back half of the year to cover entries (though to be fair that's more on our inability to consistently apply pressure to the kicker or slow ball movement- see point one).

I don't think the bolded bit is correct (nor the orher numbers). Just doing a quick search, it's actually 17 of the lasy 18 flag winners have been ranked top 3 for scores from turnover differential- and im 99% sure we were the outlier. From this article: In 17 of the last 18 seasons, the premiers have sat in the top three for the score from turnover differentials competition-wide. Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne defines a turnover as: When you win the ball back off the opposition and your ability to score off that. Or when you cough the ball up to the opposition and how well you defend that opposition possession. “People hate that I keep saying this, but I’ll back history until history changes,” Hoyne said on SEN’s Sportsday. “The number one go-to that we constantly refer to is: how is your turnover game and where is that actually poised? “So the points differential from turnover is the ‘real ladder’. “Why is it the ‘real ladder’? Because 17 of the last 18 premiers have been top three. Not top six, not top eight, but top three in the turnover game. “So it’s 60 per cent (or more) of your score (being from turnover).

Robbing peter to pay paul has been an underrated issue for us this season. JVR, riv and koz all playing in the middle when we'd be better off if they were allowed to play their best positions.

I reckon they've gone up, but only because at the beginning of the season whilst he was regularly going to centre square bounces it was often only 5 or 6 times. A few times of late it has been 10 plus timed.

You'd think hannebery would know if Swans are loading or not. I assume he still has connections with ex teamates. Still probably not good enough for the how come it's not ever mentioned by ex players, head in the sand crew but. The swans must have been found out! Agree no good for the so called analysts (how to explain an historical huge loss for a team on top of the ladder). Good for punters though. Now's the time to back the swans for the flag. They're now $6 to win the flag. That's outstanding value.

Which would be ironic given the number if doggies fans calling for bevo's head just 5 weeks ago.

Fair points. Getting flogged by port by 112 points when on top of the ladder near season's end is nuts.

I agree that is very likely, and said as much last week. As you say, not an excuse just a factor. (And I wouldn't sleep on the blues or pies for the same reason- I reckon both have got upside in terms of their running power) But even so losing they probably win a couple of those games if not for injury. And certainly not torched by 112 points. On loading, teams that can't cover the ground (either because of loading, or as i think is the case with us just not fit enough) are getting torched this season with all teams playing transition, turnover football. Running power, stamina and ability to cover the ground at speed have become absolutely critical. As hoyne has frequently pointed out on sen, 16 of the last 17 premiers have been top 4 in scores from turnover (we were the exception in 2021). Our opponents have ruthlessly exploited our lack of spread in the last few weeks as evidenced by the huge diff in uncontested possessions. As someone who punts on line bets, I closely follow margins and the margins this year have been extreme. So many good teams getting blown out by really big margins. @WheeloRatings do you have any easily accessible data on margins this year compared to previous years.

He's just no good one on one, never has been. Looks to have hit a wall too.

And koz taken 10 plus centre bounces on multiple occasions this season.

Why dees fans would choose to ignore these obvious facts is beyond me. Acknowledging the impact of starting the season two best 22 players down (gus and smith - so essentially a list of 42 not 44), multiple senoir players having had interrupted preseasons (bb, tmac, McAdams, hunter, salo, oliver, spargo) and in season injury (bowey, Lever, may, salo, melksham,viney,Turner, McAdam, spargo, hunter, hore, Petty, Windsor, Gawn and tracc) doesn't mean you can't still think we are on the wrong path with goody or are no good. It does mean any such argument is more credible. Injury and conditioning are the two the biggest determinants of success. The first had always been the case and the latter is becoming increasingly critical with the shift to the game being about turnoversall but complete. Just look at the swans. World beaters until recently. The premiership favourites have now lost what four of 5 games and just got flogged by 112 poimts. 112 points - by a team we beat. What's changed? Injury.

Mmm. I went and kept a close eye on jeffo. A couple of reallt good tackles and marks. And kicked goals, which is his main job But he seriously needs to work on his defensive smarts, and of more concern, defensive intensity.

And lack of fitness (the two factors being interconnected of course).

That's great, I didn't realise the game was tommorow at whitten oval. I have the day off and it's on my side of town. A bus stop almost outside my house and the bus stops at West Footscray station over the bridge to the ground. Watch the magoos in footscray. Pho in Barkly Street. Then on the train to Marvel. Perfect Friday.

And his long term fans are nodding their heads sagely and saying I told you so.

Gotcha. I guess I was thinking a call up on form would be unlikely because he's been poor at Casey.