binman

In what sense? Do you mean dong so in the future?

This post highlights a really curious phenomenon I reckon chook, one that is rife on demonland - downplaying the significance of a game we played really well in, but lost, in terms of assessing where we are at (ie as if only wins count in that regard). The overwhelming consensus pre game was the giants were the real deal, a lock for top 4 and one of the premiership favourites. And I agree with that assessment, which means logically the evidence (albeit only one game) suggests we are tracking well and likely be competitive with the very best teams. I'm really, really frustrated we lost. We should have won the match. Trigger alert, we had a higher expected score. Yes they had key players out too, particularly Briggs. But I'd contend that our major weakness is we are short two genuine gun small forwards and at least one quality small/medium defender (which is why AMW going down was such a blow). So, nor having Koz and Mcvee had an outsize impact (whereas the weather mitigated the impact of losing Briggs and Hogan) I wrote this in my match preview: "The weather also really favours the giants in terms of their fleet of small to medium forwards. Unfortunately a weakness of ours is covering such players, exacerbated today by no Mcveee. And we also lack such players in our forward line - and no koz makes that a huge problem for us. Together those factors present a huge challenge for us. Our ability to meet that challenge will, in my view, decide our fortunes." I'd argue that proved to be correct (not that it took a nostradamus to predict) as we could only manage 3 goals by smalls or mediums (Henderson, Sharp and Bowey). Whereas for the giants 7 of their 11 goals came from small or mediums (cogniglio × 3, Greene × 3 and Werhe). You could argue one of Greene's goal was as midfielder, making it 6 goals to 3 for small medium forwards (and that's counting Bowey's goal - who had pressed up as defender). And I actually think we defended their small medium forwards really well given the conditions- Bowser had his best game for some time. But if koz and mcvee both play we likely score more crumbing goals and defend Greene better (surely mcvee would have stood him). And probably won. And we also would have done a much better job trapping the ball inside our 50. (Note: I know koz would have predominantly played as a mid, but he would have rested forward and Viney and Sparrow would have had more forward minutes) In my preview I also highlighted the key stats I thought we had to win to win the game, one of which was scores from turnover: "Scores from turnover - killed us last year. We simply can't afford to lose that stat." Unfortunately that proved to be correct conceding 44 points on turnover, 15 more than they conceded. I highlight that not to be smart after the fact (again, hardly an earth shattering prediction), but to reinforce the point that, again, whilst they had important outs none hurt them to the same extent in terms of exposing a weakness. Koz and mcvee are our two best field kicks (though xl says hi) - they play and we almost certainly have fewer turnovers - not to mention more scoring chains. In a 3 point game the results are in the margins. Less turnovers means less scores from turnover and more scoring opportunities. Koz and mcvee play we likely win. By the by, we also lost our best key defender before the game - arguably the best in the AFL. Sure tmac admirialy filled May's role (though he'd love to have that non spoil on cadman back). But that makes my point about the relative impact of losing players in areas of weakness. The Giants lack a bit of defensively in terms of key defenders. If like us they lost their best key defender - Taylor - that game changes completely and our chances of winning go up significantly.

Totally agree jnr. I was actually thinking before the sub was made that I'd bench Friitter such was my frustration with his performance, but jeffo probably would have been the go. I wonder whether part of the calculation was Rivers was poor in the middle and they decided to put him at hb at Howes' expense. Risky to change up defence structures i reckon.

I was ropeable with those two goals. Both times he was unmarked. Three goals to cognilio. That's the game right there.

He should have gone for goal. He had to pick out roo with a tricky kick - open goal square 40 metres our have a ping and let it slide thru.

Told ya tmac was a lock.

Binman's match preview: After another ridiculous OR played in the northern heat and humidity, most of round one has been played in similarly uncomfortable conditions. But as the rain thumps down here in Melbourne on Sunday, it feels like a proper footy day for the start of the Demons 2025 campaign. I can't recall feeling as excited, and unsure of what to expect, at the start of a new season for many years. With the tweaks to our game plan, five players playing their first AFL games, including two mature age players, Sharp making his Demon debut, the weather and the Giants having played already there's any number of factors which makes this a really hard game to get a handle on. So I'll just focus on some of the key things exercising my mind. Weather: Looking at the radar my best guess is the rain will clear by game time. The MCG drains well, but it's still likely to be slippery. Tactics It's a myth that wet conditions is a leveller in terms of skills - so the giants' superior foot skills means the weather advantages them on that front. The weather also really favours the giants in terms of their fleet of small to medium forwards. Unfortunately a weakness of ours is covering such players, exacerbated today by no Mcveee. And we also lack such players in our forward line - and no koz makes that a huge problem for us. Together those factors present a huge challenge for us. Our ability to meet that challenge will, in my view, decide our fortunes. On the plus side there'll be more stoppages, which definitely plays to our strengths - particularly in terms of how many midfield bulls we have. Tracc, Clarry, VIney, Langford and Sparrow will love these conditions. And with Briggs not playing we have an advantage in the ruck so i expect us to win the clearance battle. However the key, as always, is not winning the clearance count, but winning the scores from clearances. Slippery conditions also mean the fast transition game the giants like to play will be harder to implement - kicks become harder to hit, more marks get dropped and those super quick handball chains break down more often. The conditions mean presure, contest and territory become critical. Even though they are also a strong contest side, that sort of footy is in our DNA. Look for us to focus on repeat inside-50s, creating stoppages, getting it inside 50 and keeping it there. Like most coaches, Goodwin backs his system. But I have a feeling that part of the tactical retooling goody has been working on since the 2024 preseason has been developing different modes of playing, including methods that mitigate the strength of our opponents. Just like we did against Freo in the practice game, I expect that we'll look to chip the ball around the back half until we can get a good opening up the ground to move the ball. One, that minimizes turnovers, because we're not being territory for territory's sake and blindly dumping it down the line Two, it keeps it out of their hands, and it means that they're less able to get it on the outside and use their relative leg speed advantage to hurt us. I'm really fascinated by our defensive system and it seems this is a real work in progress. Two preseason games is a small sample size, but tactically i see this year as an extension of last year, not a completely new model. We are still using a zone defence of course but not setting our anchor defender as deep as we did in 2020-2023. And we seem to be pushing our defensive line up higher (as is now standard). Though as evidence of goody using different modes in different circumstances it seems how aggressive we press up is circumstance dependent. I think with the conditions, and their leg speed and ability to transition, whilst we'll be looking to trap it in our front half our press won't be overly aggressive and like he did against freo, May will play pretty deep as the anchor (with Petty helping out). Key stats For us to win I think we'll need a positive differential in the following stats: Pressure - the most important stat in football. Only the pies in 2023 regularly won games with a negative pressure differential Scores from turnover - killed us last year. We simply can't afford to lose that stat. Scores from stoppages - we simply have to take advantage of our likely clearance dominance Scores from defensive half - the giants smashed the pies for this syar last week. We can't let that happen today. Uncontested marks - we can't let the giants pull us apart with heaps of uncontested marks. Tackles inside D50 - will be critical on today's conditions. Telstra tracker - fitness is critical. There is a paucity of data that can help evidence fitness. The best is top 5 distances covered, repeat sprints and speed. When at our fittest we dominate these numbers. Accuracy - need I say more? Prediction As always, my heart says the dees. But my head says the Giants are the more probable winner. But hope springs external and I can't wait to watch the mighty dees smash in this afternoon. Go redlegs.

Binman's match preview: After another ridiculous OR played in the northern heat and humidity, most of round one has been played in similarly uncomfortable conditions. But as the rain thumps down here in Melbourne on Sunday, it feels like a proper footy day for the start of the Demons 2025 campaign. I can't recall feeling as excited, and unsure of what to expect, at the start of a new season for many years. With the tweaks to our game plan, five players playing their first AFL games, including two mature age players, Sharp making his Demon debut, the weather and the Giants having played already there's any number of factors which makes this a really hard game to get a handle on. So I'll just focus on some of the key things exercising my mind. Weather: Looking at the radar my best guess is the rain will clear by game time. The MCG drains well, but it's still likely to be slippery. Tactics It's a myth that wet conditions is a leveller in terms of skills - so the giants' superior foot skills means the weather advantages them on that front. The weather also really favours the giants in terms of their fleet of small to medium forwards. Unfortunately a weakness of ours is covering such players, exacerbated today by no Mcveee. And we also lack such players in our forward line - and no koz makes that a huge problem for us. Together those factors present a huge challenge for us. Our ability to meet that challenge will, in my view, decide our fortunes. On the plus side there'll be more stoppages, which definitely plays to our strengths - particularly in terms of how many midfield bulls we have. Tracc, Clarry, VIney, Langford and Sparrow will love these conditions. And with Briggs not playing we have an advantage in the ruck so i expect us to win the clearance battle. However the key, as always, is not winning the clearance count, but winning the scores from clearances. Slippery conditions also mean the fast transition game the giants like to play will be harder to implement - kicks become harder to hit, more marks get dropped and those super quick handball chains break down more often. The conditions mean presure, contest and territory become critical. Even though they are also a strong contest side, that sort of footy is in our DNA. Look for us to focus on repeat inside-50s, creating stoppages, getting it inside 50 and keeping it there. Like most coaches, Goodwin backs his system. But I have a feeling that part of the tactical retooling goody has been working on since the 2024 preseason has been developing different modes of playing, including methods that mitigate the strength of our opponents. Just like we did against Freo in the practice game, I expect that we'll look to chip the ball around the back half until we can get a good opening up the ground to move the ball. One, that minimizes turnovers, because we're not being territory for territory's sake and blindly dumping it down the line Two, it keeps it out of their hands, and it means that they're less able to get it on the outside and use their relative leg speed advantage to hurt us. I'm really fascinated by our defensive system and it seems this is a real work in progress. Two preseason games is a small sample size, but tactically i see this year as an extension of last year, not a completely new model. We are still using a zone defence of course but not setting our anchor defender as deep as we did in 2020-2023. And we seem to be pushing our defensive line up higher (as is now standard). Though as evidence of goody using different modes in different circumstances it seems how aggressive we press up is circumstance dependent. I think with the conditions, and their leg speed and ability to transition, whilst we'll be looking to trap it in our front half our press won't be overly aggressive and like he did against freo, May will play pretty deep as the anchor (with Petty helping out). Key stats For us to win I think we'll need a positive differential in the following stats: Pressure - the most important stat in football. Only the pies in 2023 regularly won games with a negative pressure differential Scores from turnover - killed us last year. We simply can't afford to lose that stat. Scores from stoppages - we simply have to take advantage of our likely clearance dominance Scores from defensive half - the giants smashed the pies for this syar last week. We can't let that happen today. Uncontested marks - we can't let the giants pull us apart with heaps of uncontested marks. Tackles inside D50 - will be critical on today's conditions. Telstra tracker - fitness is critical. There is a paucity of data that can help evidence fitness. The best is top 5 distances covered, repeat sprints and speed. When at our fittest we dominate these numbers. Accuracy - need I say more? Prediction As always, my heart says the dees. But my head says the Giants are the more probable winner. But hope springs external and I can't wait to watch the mighty dees smash in tgis afternoon. Go redlegs.

How many throws have been let go so far this round? It's nuts.

What about loitering in a tent?

Yep. Exception and rule and all that. By the by the bombers defence is pathetic - both in terms of system and personelle.

Richo is no Rhodes scholar. He reckons every team should play in OR. What would the next round be called?

Yep. But their method is completely dependent on their running power. It's a long season and as we saw with both the hawks and swans if that aspect drops off so do they.

Absolutely, wasn't arguing otherwise. You still have to get inside 50 but. Which is basically what hoyne said in the segment being discussed I reckon the percentage of games won in the 2-3 last seasons by teams having fewer inside 50s than their opponent would be vanishingly small (and yes I know the lions won the flag with 2 less inside 50s). And I'd add that one thing that hasn't changed is pressure is critical and the team thay applies most pressure is more likely to win (though pies in 2023 were an outlier in this regard).

I'm officially retiring from guessing team selections - no Tmac (who i least walkred back yesterday), Billings or Turner. I thought the latter two were locks - ditto Tmac a week or so ago. (The expected rain might be a factor in the call on tmac and turner) Henderson is a genuine bolter, but i guess we needed a small forward to cover koz. I'm happy JVR won't have to ruck. How great for Henderson and AJ to share a debut. Werribee tigers must be thrilled. What a buzz for so many players to debut. I wonder if the tiger's energy last night was a factor? I'm pumped.

Well, its not quite a fact. Hoyne didn't say it inside 50s were not a factor for those premiership winning teams - far from it. Of course it's a factor - just not as big a factor as it once was (reflecting the change in how the game is now played by tge best teams).

I barely listen or watch any footy media anymore. I can't stand most of it. Hoyne is an exception. I really like him - he's the only media analyst i listen to regularly (via the sportsday pod on spotify which separates all the segments out meaning i don't have to listen to the other guff. I hadn't listened to him yet this year - did so on the train to work this morning. Ball movement has been a hobby horse for Hoyne for a few seasons now. He was right on to it as something to 'watch' with the way the Pies started playing under McRae in 2022, and of course in 2023. As you suggest by ball movement he is talking about transition from the 'defensive half'. As you suggest that is measured by goals from the defensive half. By the by its important to note that defensive half means the defensive side of the center line NOT a team's defensive area (eg from half back, or inside D50), as it's often conflated with. I say important because i think sometimes people assume transition happens from deep in a team's defence. The other key stat related to transition and ball movement is turnovers. The best transition teams (ball movement) create lots of turnovers thru their pressure and then move the ball down the field effectively (like GWS v pies).

Dismantle would be a more accurate sobriquet.

I didn't hear that, though he talked it about it last year as emerging trend (was 3 of 4 then). I would be be very surprised if he said the inside 50 count was not a factor.

They have kicked 8 of the last 9? The blues look on the back foot and the tigers look like they are running on top of the ground better. You may well be right. Whatever happens from here it's a worry for the blues. Imagine their equivalent of the Demonland game day thread right now!

He's still a good chance of being selected. However, I've come to terms as evidenced by this bit from a previous post in this thread: The other challenge we face defensively is our relative lack of leg speed. If we don't play the deep anchor role we have traditionally used to defend turnovers (or use it less often -or perhaps set not as deep) our defenders have to have the wheels to get back when we turn it over. And we are not blessed with speed. On that front I've been very bullish that tmac plays, but perhaps Howes gets the nod as he is considerably quicker than tmac. And I've no doubt this a big factor in Windsor going back.

Squad only tonight?

I wonder if the weather might be a factor. Jeffo is probably better at ground level than AJ so might be a better bet if its wet?

I've been very impressed by Sharp's running power and speed - not to mention his goal sense. As much as i loved Nibbla, i think Sharp is an excellent replacement.