Adam The God

Disagree. He's a horrible decision maker and ordinary disposer. Those media pundits are like those MFC supporters that loved Frost. He looks exciting and flashy sprinting off half back, but he does it at the wrong times, misses targets and unlike Frost, is pretty ordinary 1v1. He's the guy that I'd be playing through if I were Melbourne. The turnover game we now play, should score heavily off his sort of speculative nuffiness.

Yep, he's a real weakness in their system, but they don't have elite kickers or particularly good decision makers off half back, plus they're paying him a mint, so may as well use him. If Carlton wins a flag with Saad in their backline, I'll be staggered.

The other AFL player that sprints off half back with no idea where they're going and undermines their defensive set up is Adam Saad. The way Goodwin plays the percentages, I'm staggered Frost lasted as long as he did at Melbourne.

You can't play a solid defensive system with that sort of incompetence and unpredictability.

Harmes offered very little last week on fresh legs, when everyone else was tiring. As for JJ, I like him as a player, but won't ever break B grade and we can afford to lose him.

I must be the only one who doesn't hold a soft spot for Frostball or the player. But I do remember a number of posts whinging that our FD had got it wrong when we jettisoned him. Looking forward to a few stupid turnovers from old mate.

Welcome back mate!

Perhaps, although I reckon it's more likely that Petty is just better at ground level than either of them.

Probably based on his historical body of work, which has shown he gets completely lost in the defensive zone and often gets caught on the wrong side of his opponent. Don't want to speak for TU, but there you go.

And to be clear, there's no way Curtin gets past WC's pick, right? Is that what you're hearing? @Pennant St Dee @ChaserJ

My point was at this stage he's serviceable as a forward and if it clicks, he'll be more. As Goodwin intimated in the presser, they want to give it a further try. Let's see if it works.

Yep, you don't want to be experimenting when it comes to the finals. Well, at least not knowing whether it works or not.

This user name is excellent. 10 stars out of 10.

1) he competes well and is an excellent mark. 2) he takes a good defender. 3) he's better than Tmac or BB at ground level and follow up. I actually think the thing he needs to improve on is his link play. So if JVR and Max are the more stay at home/forward 50 players, Petty needs to get up the ground more and take marks, and link inside 50. This is something that an uninhibited and fit TMac at his best does. BB is more your stay at home, lead from the square forward - that doesn't mean he doesn't work up the ground sometimes, even into defensive 50, but I'm being crude with the descriptions. At this stage, Petty is a better bet than those two. He's also a very good reader of the game, better in defence, but he reads the game. The only alternative to Petty if those two aren't options is someone like Joel Smith, who doesn't have a good game sense IMO and doesn't have a footy brain, but has excellent athletic traits that could link play and help at ground level. In the end, I think they've turned to Petty because the other options are thin. But if it clicks for Petty forward (a bit like 2019), our forward half becomes super dangerous with tall marking targets in Max (elite), JVR, Petty and the mobile, but good above his head Fritsch. We'd be a handful in the air, being complemented by very good ground level players in Kozzy, Chandler and Spargo.

Yep, sounds like they're targeting KB or a week before.

This is a great post. I just want to highlight these sections. I think we've read the tea leaves over the summer and set ourselves up to beat Collingwood's method, rather than anyone else's. Because, as you say, our system relies on winning 1 v 2s or even 1 v 3s or breaking even, or at the very least applying enough post clearance pressure to make the clearance a scrubby clearance that gives our defenders a chance. Given the +2 to stoppage from Collingwood, if our mids (two of them are certainly top 5-10 mids in the game) can win the stoppage, the players we'll have on the outside to capitalise on this, should lead to scores, particularly given how deadly accurate we've been on turnover. Collingwood leak goals a bit anyway, but with our mids, we seem to be set up to beat them without adjusting +2 at the contest. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even run someone specifically on Daicos on KB and just go head to head with him. I'd be inclined to actually send someone to Daicos in the second half (unless he turns it on significantly in the first). It'd be a great 'in game' experiment and mean that one player doesn't have to run with him the whole game.

We talking Bont? Or have I missed something...

I dunno. I reckon it was character building. Seriously. Sure, I don't want my kids to be put through hell, but I despise bandwagoners in any sport, so sticking fat when things aren't going to plan is an important life skill. I'd love to know what this is based on. From @WheeloRatings stats in my new favourite thread 'Why are we continuously being beaten in clearances', we have Geelong covered in pretty much all the key indicators. Hawks fans are never keen on watching their side when they're not in the top 4. Biggest fair weather supporter base in the game.

I tried to invite the Hawthorn supporting wife along. She declined. Still haven't been able to work out if it's because her team is rubbish; or if it's about getting a baby sitter for our two year old; or it's about watching football with me (don't blame her); or all of the above. Our son is Melbourne, but she has this ridiculous rule that she won't convert to Melbourne (we've been together since 2007 FFS) unless we beat Hawthorn in a GF. She thinks she's pretty safe there, I reckon! I'd love to beat Hawthorn in a GF, but I'd much prefer they stay in the bottom 4 forever and eventually fold. I hope your kids have a big, memorable victory, mate.

I'd love pick 4, but reckon it's more likely to land at pick 5-7. We'll see, I guess.

Yeah, surely Curtin goes straight to West Coast. If the Eagles finish on the bottom, he'll be the number one pick.

If David King was doing proper analysis, he'd be looking at these sorts of stats and saying, who is consistently in the top 4 in all areas? Whoever that is, will be the team who is currently positioned the best for a flag tilt. Of course, flags require luck on the injury front and in game luck, but you'd have to say that Melbourne are clearly the flag favourites based on our ability to execute our method that sees us scoring in multiple ways at an elite level, and yet still be defensively incredibly strong (top 4 for scores against).

This is excellent and to me shows how reliant Collingwood are on stoppages for scores, which is based on sending +2 to the stoppage. Wowee, I've always thought they were vulnerable, but if you even just give them only +1 at the stoppage and beat them there or break even, they are going to struggle to beat you. I'm a bit like @binman, I don't really rate them. Admire what McCrae has been able to do, but it's not sustainable IMV. I feel teams are mostly keeping their powder dry on Collingwood. Collingwood are all over the place on those charts, but are right up there with stoppage goals. Conversely, we're high on all scoring methods, making us much harder to play against. All duck, no dinner, anyone? 😉

Was hoping for 70k this year. Might need to win the flag to get it up to 70k next year.

I wonder if they want to get a game under his belt before the important Port game? If so, he could come straight in this week. I wonder if McVee will get a rest...