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Everything posted by Skuit
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And while people here are ready to lynch the coach, my memory of recent wet weather games turns specifically to Hawthorn and Sydney in 2016. There must have been plenty more but these were the ones where we were completely outclassed in the conditions. Maturity and experience are more important than simple instruction in such a regard.
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Busy with the magnets.
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That's the thing - when you bring up age people will point to the average games team stats. But our top-end talent is concentrated in the younger players and we're forced to rely on them. It's part of a rebuild after being poor for so long. Petracca has a stinker and our centre-line suddenly looks impotent. What do you do? Bring old legs like Lewis and Vince back in for the breakdowns? Hawthorn are the opposite.
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It was working for me today. Some very brief blips sometime around the start of the second half but was otherwise perfect.
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Well that was a good ol’ fashioned flogging. I’m afraid we don’t have the class to set up how we are. Gawn goes for a spell and we lose control of the match. Hogan goes forward as a target and we lose drive. We need Pedders as a swing-man until at least Tmac is back. A small forward-structure may be fine, but we don't have the one-touch finishers.
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Curious. Interesting to see that post of our heat-maps as well. His whole streak was outside of the defensive-50 just short of centre. As far as we know his role may be to simply defend the corridor and push the opposition wide.
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What I don't get is how often you see defenders mark the long ball uncontested. Why don't we just get our forwards to play like defenders?
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So we should send Bugg to line up on Milkshake?
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I'm certainly no expert, but assuming there's no further set-backs or especial caution I would expect players of Viney and Tmac's ilk to be available within the month.
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I don't condone violence in any shape or form. Except where it concerns a five-foot football recruit in their first outing for our club and then it makes me smile.
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I'm rather disappointed to hear he'll miss our first two premierships but maybe we can squeeze him in for our third?
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A few points being made here. It's difficult to find space inside-50 in the modern game. Long bombs may be fine on occasion but you can't keep doing them all day as the opposition can easily set up for it. We've been 'adjusting' and lowering our eyes as our games go on. Put them together and maybe it's a tactic? Bomb it early - especially when defenders are still fresh and haven't been run up the ground - and make sure the the opposition are having to set up for it and coming to expect it. Introduce more ball on the lead as the game goes on - hopefully with more space and less tight checking by that time.
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Salem doesn't seem to like North much. Took his angry pills again last week. Looks much better when he's aggressive and has had a few good games against them now. Hopefully he can stay a bit riled.
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I'm usually too absorbed in the ruck contest to register our ground set-up on TV or who's even present at our breakdowns - like the umpire is some magician distracting me with the ball - but I did notice this a couple times last year. Usually it spelled trouble though. A vast paddock opening up after a tight contest - Geelong and Hawthorn in the last quarters spring to mind.
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How great is it not being mentioned in the same terms as Richmond anymore! Glad we finally rid ourselves of that.
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Yeah, that'll help address the soft narrative. Cancel commando camp and then take the day off to go and look at some flowers?
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There's one minor anomaly in the bomb-it-long for the crumbers theory that makes me think it's also tactically a percentages thing; the extra numbers off half-back. I recall reading last year that Goody was a student of all sports, and I think he's been drawing from rugby with his set-up. Win the break-downs, kick for territory, and drive forward with numbers behind the ball to force the opposition to work their way out. Unfortunately, like rugby, when the opposition break the lines they're a pretty good chance of scoring. It would probably work better if it was a non-designated spot and we just fired in low, wonky chaos balls. In saying that, we're currently the highest scoring team in the league. I've also detected a strange rugby element in our in-tight handball movement since the start of 2016. Possibly just because we have the the extra numbers coming from the rear for the receive, but it seems like it's something more in the angles and lines. I wonder if we keep the first receiver running a tight straight line to the pack for a quick little flick - difficult for the opposition to quickly adjust to if we break through - but should there be a turnover error the ball remains close to the pack for another attempted stoppage. ? The other method in the madness may be that Goodwin recognises our poor relatively foot-skills across the group and has simply set up differently to capitalise on what we're best at?
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This would appear the most logical deduction. Our kick to handball ratio has improved and we're probably clearing it a bit quicker from the breakdowns with less handballs around the pack - two of the biggest gripes on here last season. It may be the Goody quietly addressed the tackled numbers in the off-season - which would certainly add to fatigue within a game and additional wear across the season - and while it's difficult to quantify among other measures, we seem to be closing out games fairly well. Goody also strikes me as a man of deep statistics. I made the point in the post-match thread of Lewis's curious post-match on-field interview, where he somehow already knew the match stats for contested and centre-clearance differentials. Obviously a focus to win these numbers to the point where our leaders are being constantly updated.
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A variety of sources wherever I can find them - which still sometimes requires some extra digging to navigate the sites. Primarily afl.com, afltables and footy-wire. Would love to know of any others. Always appreciate @Rafiki's subscriber Telstra additions, and I think the Hun may print some unique ones. I imagine the betting agencies might have some obscure stats on occasion as well. The ones above are all pretty surface - so hoping others can dig out some more curious figures.
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This always turns my brain around as well - like a double-negative through connotation. To clarify; we're the seventh-most tackled team. 2016 we were the most tackled team and last year we were on track for one of the top-most. Curious as to what has caused this drop? Also, I'd love if someone knew where to find the attempted and broken tackle stats to see if there's any variation.
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We held our stat-line quite well for a good portion of last year until the injuries began to bite and the midfield figures and then scoring dried up (as a rough and ready figure; we scored above 100 points 7 out of the first 12 matches until we played West Coast. Only once thereafter). I think we'd be pretty short odds to end up top-four for contested and centre clearances this year and so then inside-50s as well - though we have a fairly young midfield brigade still which might fade a fraction.
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Stuie-watch (for those who have been baited into thoroughly abusing him and thus banned from his fb page): In: Pedo Fact.
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The home of statistics and discussion thereof. As of the end of round 3; Scoring for and against Demons 1st in points scored. 1st in inside-50s 1st in least opposition inside-50s Thus 1st in inside-50 differential by a huge margin. 3rd in assists and marks inside-50 Last for rebound-50s and second-last for opponent rebound 50s. Intensity 2nd in total contested possessions – 1st for contested possession differential and the only team at 3-0 for contested wins. 4th clearances (3rd centre/7th stoppages) 4th for tackles 7th for tackles against (this is a huge improvement on recent years) Possession for and against 16th marks – but 3rd in least opponent marks per game. Also 9th contested marks. 1st in least opponent kicks 4th in least opponent disposals 12th for clangers Summary: I think for the most part the early statistics are bearing out what we're seeing with our eyes - inefficiency. But perhaps the frustration of this inefficiency is blinding us a fraction to our absolute dominance in a couple of areas, namely the contested battle and sheer volume of ball moving forward. We're also perhaps the one mobile clearance specialist short to really step it up (JV). The stats are however fairly similar to the early part of last year. But there's some subtle differences re. the nature of disposals for and against. We're kicking more and being kicked and tackled against less - areas which should help with endurance. We're also (to my surprise) not getting completely completely hammered in the marking and are a bit cleaner in our disposal. Basically, we're playing contested footy, but also shutting down space and forcing the opposition to do the same. Together, it all bodes super-well if we can clean up just a fraction up front or get a smidgen tighter down back - the latter which we should be able to do considering we have three AA-level defenders currently out of form or learning to gel (as well as a potential top-line rebounder in Hunt), while as to the former we're still fiddling with in the unexpected absence of Tomald. Lastly, it's just three rounds, and we've played two likely bottom-four teams - but I think we tend to play as well or as poorly despite the opposition and that most of these stats will hold. Add your own obscure statistics or whatever you think are pertinent and let's monitor where we stack up as the season progresses. Go Dees!
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We know we have a chaotic game-style but I imagine most of us want to see better organisation going forward and down back. In saying that, we've scored the most points across the league to date, we've won the most quarters, we're second in contested, and top-four for clearances, marks inside-50, assists and tackles. These are the stats I'm certain Goody is aiming for and is of the belief that the weight of numbers will eventually win out. Our kick-to-handball ratio has also improved and our percentage is in the right bracket. We've also done enough to win each of our matches. So this may be what it is. And with a fraction better polish (I read our DE% is improving but I find it hard to believe just yet) and a lift in individual form it may be good enough. We could be in for a highly frustrating but successful year.