Nairobi_Demon

On 8/12/2021 at 1:31 PM, Boots and all said:

The location too, free kicks inside the oppo forward 50 are the killers.

Will be interesting to watch these passages of play once the ProVision is online:

Dogs back to dominating the free kick count, 22 to 14 today. 
 

5 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Anyone have any thoughts on the vibe around choosing to have Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and May on the bench for the last 5 or so minutes?

Resting/Protection?

Proving that the team can perform without them?

Revelling in watching the lads?

Definitely protection. These are our 4 most important players I reckon. 

So many top efforts it’s hard to know where to start: Rivers, Kossie, ANB...  You could almost list the whole team.

I was particularly impressed with Sparrow’s game and I thought Langdon was back to his first half season form where he gets all the way up into the forward line and hits the score board. First time he has kicked a goal since round 13. I wonder whether they’ve been saving this part of his game for finals. 

My only concern is TMac. He’s never been fast but he seemed particularly slow today and lacked awareness of what was happening around him. I’d back him in but gee I hope he can find some of his form from earlier in the season.

In other words, no decisions taken yet.  
 

With Jones, JJ, Hibberd and Melksham listed as emergencies it’s likely we won’t know the actual team until tomorrow or even Saturday 

Great stuff as always

2 hours ago, BDA said:

This is only anecdotal so make of it what you will

There is a surprising level of hesitancy out there. I have in-laws and clients who are dubious about the vaccines. Enough to make me wonder whether we'll get to 80% easily. Reckon there will have to be a nudge applied somehow. What's weird is that these people are not anti-vaxx per se (they have had other jabs) rather they are anti covid-vaxx

Mandatory vaxxing is legally difficult to do (i know Fair Work are working around the clock trying to figure out the position for employers), perhaps incentives will encourage the slackers. Not sure

Anyway, its great to have supply sorted but the next problem to resolve is the hesitancy.

I suspect this challenge is being under estimated.  Now the supply has been sorted, Australia is following the trend of other countries and hitting all the low hanging fruit of those who can’t wait for their vaccines. But it’s likely to slow down  

This article also makes some interesting observations about highly vaccinated countries/regions and the continued need for social restrictions: 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/24/why-is-covid-surging-in-highly-vaccinated-israel-and-what-can-australia-learn-from-it?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

9 minutes ago, MT64 said:

Can anyone please show us the difference of Geelong's ground compared to the MCG. Not really IT savvy.

I was wondering about this and found this online:

6 minutes ago, Nairobi_Demon said:

I just re-watched the last ~15min of Q2. A few observations:

- Hawkins first two goals (in that 15min period) were critical and I think started to give the Cats some confidence after a gruelling 45min of football.  Both goals were probably on May who didn’t seem to read the ball’s flight allowing Hawkins to get in a better position. 
 

- The subsequent run of goals from the centre seemed driven by their pace. Dangerfield was key. The first goal was probably on Harmes and to some degree Gawn. Harmes started next to Dangerfield on their offensive side but lost him. Dangerfield subsequently just waltzed past Gawn and ran almost up to 50m arc. 
 

- Clarry started next to Dangerfield at the next bounce, also their offensive side.  Cats got a bit lucky getting this ball out of the centre but then they just waltzed forward. It seemed like our backs were just not set up. Can’t see on TV but maybe their forwards had dragged our backs out of position. Rivers seemed to have slipped over or perhaps was pushed off the ball, which opened up the space for Dangerfield. Bowey also got sucked toward Dangerfield, opening up the space behind him. 

- the third goal out of the centre could have been a Cats set play in terms of how their forwards worked together. Hawkins kept May out of the contest, and Cameron grappled with Smith effectively blocking Lever and creating a space for Rohan to get across for the mark. At the centre bounce, Dangerfield was again on their offensive side this time Viney was on him. But Oliver and Harmes both got sucked into focusing on Dangerfield, which then allow Selwood and their #9 (I think) to clear the ball with pace. 

Some overall observations:

- their pace was key

- not clear who was on dangerfield, and we got sucked towards him a few times (did Dangerfield have a tag?)

- Cats were quite clever at blocking our pathways to create space for the ball carrier

- May was not at his best in this period 

I also wondered whether the extra space between the goal square and the 50m arc threw us off a bit.  GMHBA is longer than the MCG by 10m so there must be an extra 5m on either side of the goal square. They exploited that space. 

Just realised I posted this in the wrong thread, will repost it in the postgame thread. Whoops 😆

I just re-watched the last ~15min of Q2. A few observations:

- Hawkins first two goals (in that 15min period) were critical and I think started to give the Cats some confidence after a gruelling 45min of football.  Both goals were probably on May who didn’t seem to read the ball’s flight allowing Hawkins to get in a better position. 
 

- The subsequent run of goals from the centre seemed driven by their pace. Dangerfield was key. The first goal was probably on Harmes and to some degree Gawn. Harmes started next to Dangerfield on their offensive side but lost him. Dangerfield subsequently just waltzed past Gawn and ran almost up to 50m arc. 
 

- Clarry started next to Dangerfield at the next bounce, also their offensive side.  Cats got a bit lucky getting this ball out of the centre but then they just waltzed forward. It seemed like our backs were just not set up. Can’t see on TV but maybe their forwards had dragged our backs out of position. Rivers seemed to have slipped over or perhaps was pushed off the ball, which opened up the space for Dangerfield. Bowey also got sucked toward Dangerfield, opening up the space behind him. 

- the third goal out of the centre could have been a Cats set play in terms of how their forwards worked together. Hawkins kept May out of the contest, and Cameron grappled with Smith effectively blocking Lever and creating a space for Rohan to get across for the mark. At the centre bounce, Dangerfield was again on their offensive side this time Viney was on him. But Oliver and Harmes both got sucked into focusing on Dangerfield, which then allow Selwood and their #9 (I think) to clear the ball with pace. 

Some overall observations:

- their pace was key

- not clear who was on dangerfield, and we got sucked towards him a few times (did Dangerfield have a tag?)

- Cats were quite clever at blocking our pathways to create space for the ball carrier

- May was not at his best in this period 

I also wondered whether the extra space between the goal square and the 50m arc threw us off a bit.  GMHBA is longer than the MCG by 10m so there must be an extra 5m on either side of the goal square. They exploited that space. 

Our worst quarter of the season

9 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

I'm a little bit interested in why the Dogs have been deserted by the umps the last 3 weeks  after 6 years of nothing but love. I did post a few weeks back that I thought the AFL wanted Brisbane and Port in the top 4. Looks like it may just happen, but at the time I thought it was us that was being assisted out.

Good question. I think your hypothesis above has legs. 

Above I suggested the hypothesis in bold:

17 hours ago, Nairobi_Demon said:

I’ve watched bits and pieces of the Dogs games the last two weeks, and one thing I noticed is that they didn’t seem to be getting a helping hand from the umpires like they did in the game against us. And it makes a big difference.  
 

Today, for example, the free kick count was 23-15 in favour of Port. And last week it was 14-11 in favour of the Hawks. Our game was 25-11 to them!
 

Perhaps the umpires have noticed the talk about their huge free kick advantage and are trying to balance it out (a little) before season ends. 
 

They’re other reasons why they’re down and losing, but I think this has contributed. 

And LD has hypothesised that it relates to us:

9 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

My mfcss is playing up with the idea of the umps stiffing the dogs so as to us playing port.

Must win tonight.

In some ways we can test these hypotheses next week. If the umpires revert to favouring the dogs then it’s an indication that it’s either hypothesis 1 or 3. That they wanted another interstate team in the top 4 and not that they were trying to correct their biased umpiring earlier in the year. 😆

A win for me today would be no injuries. 

I’ve watched bits and pieces of the Dogs games the last two weeks, and one thing I noticed is that they didn’t seem to be getting a helping hand from the umpires like they did in the game against us. And it makes a big difference.  
 

Today, for example, the free kick count was 23-15 in favour of Port. And last week it was 14-11 in favour of the Hawks. Our game was 25-11 to them!
 

Perhaps the umpires have noticed the talk about their huge free kick advantage and are trying to balance it out (a little) before season ends. 
 

They’re other reasons why they’re down and losing, but I think this has contributed. 

6 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I had a glimmer of hope yesterday.

Today - 25/55 only in isolation. 6 Mystery cases.

How can the ratio of infected people in full isolation go from 73% to 45% in the space of a day?

Just call the GF in Perth now and put everyone (except for people living in Perth) our of their misery.

As did I BBP.

It seems clear that yesterday’s numbers were largely a result of 13 day tests of those that went into isolation at the beginning of this current outbreak.  
 

But today’s numbers are driven by a new cycle of infections.
 

I suspect Melburnians went into last weekend thinking the city was getting on top it. And if you were looking at the numbers and the iso % late last week, you can understand why. See the highlighted section in this graph on the 11-13 August. 

That prompted a spike in population movement as shown in this graph, a trend in behaviour that is common across all lockdowns, i.e. movement begins to pick up towards the end of lockdown. 

Thus these are new infections that have been out and about this week, seeding a new cycle of infections that will take at least two weeks to bring under control. 

Sadly I think this means finals in Melbourne are unlikely 🙁

The AFL should save the bye for the week between the preliminary finals and the grand final. That way they’ll know the teams in the GF and have two weeks to put in place contingency measures to allow supporters to attend, including pre-game PCR and antigen testing. 

If Victorians can travel to WA for a final with a PCR and vaccination, then surely one could apply the same criteria to a game at the ‘G?

You can only attend if you have a PCR test taken within say 72 hours (and/or a rapid antigen test at the gate; otherwise almost all PCR testing capacity would need to be allocated for footy goers) and a full vaccination certificate. 
 

Sure, those under 40 who can only now access AZ would probably miss out (given time gap between doses), but they’ve got 30+ years to wait for the next MFC premiership 😁

While I’m excited about Bowey like everyone else, I still think Hibberd has a role to play if we need an experienced shutdown defender. He’s had a solid season overall and I just don’t think Bowey has sufficient experience to come in for finals off two games, one of which was a walk in the park. 

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Disgraceful frees to Bont on the last 10m

Protected species.

Grabs ball tries to break through two tacklers, drops ball 

 

......holding the man

 

FMD ump

Let me guess, umpire #26?

14 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Really must say that I don't really like Monday night or Sunday night games for that matter.

I find I get impatient waiting out the whole round / weekend to watch us play unbearable, particularly now we are playing so well and I expect us to win most games.

Very unhappy with the Monday night game - middle of the work day for me given the time difference which means I can’t watch live 😫

3 hours ago, daisycutter said:

can one get free kick statistics by umpire by game?

I'd like to see each umpires for and against free kicks for all melbourne's games this year

I’d like to see this too if anyone has it, particularly for umpire #26. Has to be a Dogs supporter. 

3 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Hi, find attached a generic pdf from the web.

To be clear this is not my area of expertise in sport, but goes some way to explaining what is going on.

Volume = Time spent.

Technique = type training aerobically or anaerobically

Y axis = % of maximum for an individual.

This could also be useful

Thanks, very helpful. 

Why does the intensity line stop at round 18?  According to the graph the volume (training time) increases but the intensity is so low it’s not even shown? Or is the intensity determined week to week and wasn’t yet determined and plotted when this screen shot was taken?

13 hours ago, layzie said:

Highlighted on the podcast this week I did think Bartel made a good comment saying we need to know the right moments to speed up the game. 

If where not going to score with the forwards we have then we probably need more opportunities.

Agree with this. I’ve been wondering the last few games why we fumble so much more than the other teams. I think it’s because we’re trying to play at speed that is beyond our skill level, which is made a lot worse when we’re tired and when wet conditions challenge our skills. In those circumstances we just need to throttle back our speed that is commensurate with our skill base and the conditions. 
 

Like the players, we shouldn’t get complacent at the pointy end of the season. In the next final 5 rounds, we are the only top 8 team that plays three top 8 teams (two of which are top 4): Dogs, Cats and WCE. Drop all three and we probably finish 5th or 6th, drop two of those three and we probably finish 3rd or 4th.  

This assumes we bank the 4 points against GCS and the Crows. 

We simply cannot turn up expecting to execute our game plan for only 1-2 Quarters and finish top 4, against any team. 

And we desperately need to sort out our set shots for goals. All teams will crank the pressure in finals and we’ll need to take our opportunities in front of goal. 

6 May

5 Lever

4 Brayshaw 

3 Hunt

2 Trac

1 Gawn