Jjrogan

Are we guessing it was the coaches? Wonder if Voss made it a priority with all that was going on last Friday night.

I looked this up yesterday. Opposition turnovers scores v expected turnover scores are around -10. In other words, the oppositon is scoring on average 10 more points on turnover than we could expect. (Small sample size so far but all these turnover numbers explain the ladder more than anything) For comparison, the worst in the competition are wce and ess who leak about 15 points worse than expected. The next bracket are teams are similar mid tier teams like us... saints, blues, gws. The point of difference we have over those 'similar' teams is our expected scores from turnover are +10 ish which is actually a top 4 to 6 profile. And why we are 4-2 and not Carlton. This is welcome news as the last few years we have been scoring less than expected on turnovers. (Bear in mind the expected turnover score takes into account the location of turnover) As for reasons why we are being scored against... Our one on one loss percentage is the 2nd worst in the comp behind Essendon (albeit this is ground wide) We are the 2nd worst defending full ground transition. Defensive 50 (and def half) to forward 50. In other words, teams are moving the ball a bit too easily against us. . In a nutshell, we have been better scoring on turnover but its come at the expense of being worse on defending on turnover. We leak on turnover like a bottom 4 team, so if we dont punish the top teams, they almost certainly will punish us. This definitely fits the eye test watching us right now. But to answer your question, is it structure or personnel. Er, um, ah... Ill get back to you.

Ha thanks. Broken clock. I think we are 3-3 in this next block. We're playing good football but leak a bit too much on turnovers. If we beat Sydney in Sydney all bets off.

Cannot emphasise this enough. In our wins at the G we look like we have 19 on the field as we continuously have the outnumber at the contest, behind the ball and forward of the play. This is often the hallmark of an ELITE side. Geelong were the masters of it during 2007 to 2011. We are making good decisions and our ace in the pack in King's GPS data. Best example today was Sharp kicking the ball out of a pack to Latrelle on a half back flank, who sprinted away, passed to Kozzie who also sprinted down the wing and kicked it to.. Sharp. I'm sorry what? You freak. Intelligent ball use, vision and hand fast running to create options (and defend). Just fantastic football.

We have drifted during the week but somewhat staggering the betting line is only 4 goals. Feels like it should be 6+ looking at the two teams on paper. Being given a decent amount of respect here. Very promising if we cover the spread.

Pumped to watch him play but how's the conversation this week. Soooo, congrats on your first game, we want you to play on Charlie Cameron. Oh, the 2 time all Australian with 450 goals. Will do my best! Hmmm, good point. Actually go play on that number 33. Ah ok, got it. That other all Australian who had 9 shots in last years GF. On it! Actually, no. Try you on the one who had the best hair in the afl once, he's lost his mojo now. Yup yup, you mean their leading goal kicker this year. Okayyyy!!! Hmmm you know what. Forget it just play on Cam Raynor. Good luck, kid. May the force be with you.

Yeap. Lions are playing an old fashioned brand of contest, stoppage and clearance (1st in the comp). I recall a few years ago they kicked something like 5 goals from forward 50 stoppages against us. We have been good at the centre square this year because Pickett is a freak but around the ground its been a lot more iffy. If they get on top of the stoppages and clearances it could get very, very ugly. Yes, pressure will help but they are a low handball team, so its not like their game plan will break down if we press the ball carrier like GCS. If their kicking is on they will slice us apart. It wont be pretty. With our current injury toll, we are playing a bunch of kids against back to back premiers. We have to be incredbily efficient going inside 50 and really need a bag of 4 or 5 from a key forward to keep Andrews pre occupied. Maybe can run the legs off them after half time also.

This is a valid perspective. But at the same time the club must have a metric or limit where they say, ok we are getting this one wrong. Maybe i have scars from the previous coaching group where stubbornness in a process was very costly. I see the same thing happening with JVR. To be fair, I'd have no idea they dont have such KPI. Of course, 5 games is too short a sample size but its worrying that he has now had 4 consecutive games of negative or zero ball use. (Admittedly Steele not far behind). We can see what he is trying to do, hit the contest or stoppage at speed, but he's constantly overunning the ball or the player with the ball which is leading to so many one arm sling tackles. So yea, I worry he doesn’t have the hands or lateral movement for a full time midfield gig. I dont deny his effort or ceiling.

He should be tried as a backman to replace Tmac at some point this season. (Should have been tried last year in those meaningless games).

7 disposals 3 tackles for a centre bounce midfielder is a killer. Thats the output for 1 quarter so you're effectively playing with one less player. I just cant see why is he in there permanently. Even if he breaks free on the end of the chain he is the worst uncontested kick in the team for the last 3 years, which is saying something for a team of below average kicks. The other issue is he then has to match up on the guns of the competition around the ground. It was disturbing how easy zach merrett lost him in the goal he kicked in the last.

His "ball use" has been zero or negative for 3 weeks in a row which is very low even for a centre bounce player and definitely for someone who still gets the majority of his possessions uncontested. The good news is he is getting the pill, sticking some tackles and high pressure acts. And he will win us a game very soon

'Ageing well' Seriously, we will start favourites in 3 of the next 5 games and then probably another 4 or 5 throughout the year based on current form. Bookies would have us around even money now to make the top 10. But loooong season ahead. Given his focus on run and gps data, will be very interesting on how King and the MC manage the byes, injuries and resting of young and senior players.

Agree, he is a victim of where he was drafted which isnt his fault. If he was drafted 25, we'd be singing his praises. We were a huge chance to get up based on pressure and killing their forward handball. King coached the lights out in this game. He should give the coaches votes to himself.

Fwiw the stats agree with you. We are bottom 4 for both handball and kicking efficiency. One could argue the relevance of the 'efficiency' stat but in broad strokes its meaningful enough and at half time last week I dont think anyone would have said our kicking has improved. Kosis' 2nd half hit ups are fresh in the mind. However our ball use is top 5 after suns, dogs, hawks, swans. We are playing in a way that if the disposal chain is accurate we hit the scoreboard.

Very gettable at home. They play a fwd handball game and their ball use is highest rated in the comp. Basically, they've been playing fast break basketball very well with 3 scores over 120. But without Trac/Rowell and a bit of x factor in Humphery Bear, we have a decent chance to win the contested and stoppages this week. It will come down to pressure and disrupting their run and gun. I'd also love some consistent marking and scoreboard output from our key forwards but hey what's new.