Watson11

He's a talent but don't think he can impact now. Needs another 6 or 7kg over summer, and a bigger tank but he is a good grab, has a bit of mongrel, good kick. If he can do that over the next year or two then he'll be the same weight and height as Josh Kennedy and Tom Hawkins who really only started impacting when they were around 23.

Viney is that player for us but we need him on the park and fit. It can develop with the younger players. Cotchin used to absolutely go missing in big games when he was younger but is unbelievable now.

Tim Smith in and to McGovern?

We have to stop TMac being the ruck chop-out. He's our best forward by a long way. I'd go for Weid. What I wouldn't do is rely on Weid taking a contested pack mark inside 50! McGovern will slaughter him. This week of all weeks our mids needs to be hitting up leads going inside 50. If we can do that we'll win easily, but a big if.

I don't buy the luck side. Shouldn't be left to a bad bounce etc. Our problem with our close losses is our own making that we need to fix. Gary Player summed it up pretty well. Reportedly the following quote originally came about after a “good old boy with a big hat” stumbled across Gary practicing in a greenside bunker. After seeing Player hole out at his first attempt, the golfer offered him “50 bucks” to do it again. In went the next attempt. “Boy I have never seen anyone so lucky in my life.” “The harder I practice, the luckier I get.”

It makes sense we would have been interested at the start of this year. But with Brayshaw and Harmes developing so well I'm glad that we would take it off the table. I hope they are still going hard for Gaff. Maybe a new kicking coach (is that Hawthorn biomechanics guy available!)

Our 2017 and 2018 record is 10 wins and 13 losses at the G. Away from the G we are 14 wins and 5 losses in the last 2 seasons. Our 2016 record at the G was 7 wins and 5 losses.

Unless Port only win 1 out of West Coast, Collingwood, and Essendon! Then we would be 8th!

Likely but not for sure. If Geelong and North win their last 3 games and Hawthorn 2 of the last 3 then all of those teams would leapfrog us.

It’s unfair that Adelaide had to play us twice! They could be sitting in 3rd if that hadn’t happened!

Optus is the same size as Etihad (Marvel) as well. These days I prefer that comparison considering we’ve won 7 out of 8 in the last 2 years at Marvel (versus 10 out of 22 at the G). Just shows there is no reason for our poor record at the G

Buggs was graded intentional conduct with high impact to the head. Hard to see this being different but let’s wait and see

As bad as Buggs hit last year. But my guess is tribunal will reduce to 2-3 weeks.

Anyone watching. Apparently Gaff threw a round house and has knocked out Andrew Brayshaws teeth. Sounds like not too different to Bugg last year!

We can win the next 2 (today and Sydney) and still miss the 8 though. If the 3 games today go as expected, then 3rd is 0.5 games clear of 4th to 8th (we'll be 4th). Geelong and North are a game behind. Geelong and North are a chance to win their last 3. Geelong's big game is against the Hawks. Norths big game is against Adelaide in Adelaide. If those two get it done, then I fear 1 out of the last 3 for us will see us miss and end up 9th. We could win 2 out of out last 3 and end up 3rd. It is that close. Either way I think we are really close and just need to fix a few things to be able to beat anyone. I'd rather see us playing good footy and addressing some of our issues than scraping into the 8 with 1 win in the last 3 weeks. I'm glass half full that we can win 3 of our last 4, and maybe all of them.

Port play west coast in Adelaide next week with a few showers forecast. I don’t rate Port that highly but hopefully they’ll make it a slog next week.

First 2 years were below the threshold for shots at goal that I consider significant (40 shots on goal or less :-)) The stats you quote are not correct. He turned 25 in 2012. 2012 and before he kicked 520.384 at 57.5%. 2013 and after 384.60 at 59.6%. He was not at 60.95% under 25. Hint : If a player kicks 0.1 in year 1 (0%) and 150.0 in year 2 (100%), their conversion rate over both years is 99.3%, not 50%. That maths would work well on a Collingwood forum ?

Not sure where I stated Bugg is as good a player as Swan and Franklin. Statistically that group all improved their kicking after the age of 25 which was the point being made. It would be a bonus if Bugg could improve his goalkicking. The players ranked 16 to 30 on a list are important and I'd take any player in that group who averages 16 disposals at 73% efficiency with 3.4 tackles.

I rate Bugg. I think we have a strong list and he can't break back in because he is behind others but a few more injuries and we'll need him. But Buggs disposal efficiency overall (except this year) is pretty good but his goalkicking is average. Look at his career stats and he is consistently above 70% in DE (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-melbourne-demons--tomas-bugg?advv=Y) Players can fix their goalkicking yips no matter their age. I don't have time to give you 10 but a few obvious players who have improved with age. Dane Swan butchered the ball early in his career. Pre 2010 (up to age 25) had 4 out of 6 seasons with <50% goal kicking conversion. Post 2010 only dropped below 50% once. Lindsay Thomas had a bad case of the goal-kicking yips early in his career. In 2011 when he was 23 he kicked 21.36. He kicked 51.23 in 2013 when he was 25. From 24 years of age on he fixed his issues and had really good conversion rates. Buddy Franklin. From age 20-25 his goal kicking conversion rate was only 60% or more once. Since age 26 it has only been below 60% once.

I somewhat agree. Viney's a brilliant player but we are so deep with inside mids that it shouldn't make or break this season. He is missed in last quarters when the game is on the line but we need others to learn to step up and lead as well. I'd rule a line through him for the season if there is any risk of re-injury. Make sure we have Viney, Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca etc together for next year and the years after. These guys are aged 24, 21, 22 and 22 so we want to make sure they are at their peaks for the next 6-7 years. No point in risking ruining Viney's foot in my opinion. Max is only 26, Hogan and McDonald 23 and 25, Lever is 22 and so we have the backbone of a superteam. I'd love to snag a flag ala baby bombers, hawthorn (2008), bulldogs (2016) this year, but not that the expense of risking long term problems.

I can’t wait until our mids consistently lower their eyes first going into 50 and hit up Tmac or Hoges if they are on the lead, with the long kick to a contest as the second option. If we learn to do that we’ll be the no 1 scoring team for the next 5 years and Tmac and Hoges will be all time greats!

Didn't Nic Nat and Lever both do their good knees?

He wasn't great against Port, but he contributed and he has been pretty good in some other big games. Against Port if our mids had lowered their eyes going inside 50 Hogan could have had a day out. He's our top 3 quickest according to AFL tracker and we don't hit him up on the lead enough. Our mids seem more comfortable kicking long to a contest and so he stays back too much.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-04-20/improving-demon-just-keeps-on-running He runs hard both ways as well.

I was at the game, sitting high in the stand, but didn't notice the breeze, even in the last quarter when it rained. You could see the direction of the rain coming down pretty clearly and there was probably just a slight breeze favouring Adelaide. Great win though. Adelaide were 100% on and we seemed off and they beat us on most of the stats that count, so to get the win was huge.