Watson11

Expected score ???

Do you really need to call out specific incidents or just look at the Frees For leaderboard. Some of the ruck infringements given against Max were ridiculous.

I suspect every supporter thinks their team has quite a few butchers who can’t kick. It’s our confirmation bias. @WheeloRatings has a great stat that measures field kick retention rating compared to the average kick from and to the same location in games. We actually have a pretty good kick retention rating when accounting for all the other variables. It’s a much better measure than kicking efficiency (where we are ranked #2). But we are way behind the better teams in the risks we take by foot. Goalkicking is a separate issue. We are #18 by some margin in difference between expected score and actual score. The crows have a 3 goal advantage over us just because they are stacked with brilliant kicks for goal.

Wow. Those other three games resulted in an average losing margin of 92.3 points!

Sometimes horrendous pressure ratings are structural. Sam Mitchell spoke about it after they got walloped by the Pies, making the point that they just did not get in the right positions to apply pressure and tackle, ending up with only 38 tackles. It looked like we were the same. The Saints just got extras back into our forward line and then had loose players everywhere when they ran it out. We were totally unable to get near them. It reminded me of the performance against Geelong where we just let them have the extras in defense.

@WheeloRatings I noticed the Saints only had 2 forward half scoring chains? Do you know if any team has ever had that few, let alone won the game?

Expected score says we win by 1 point. Conceding 67 points from defensive half says we didn’t deserve to win because we didn’t apply pressure and didn’t work hard enough.

You clearly haven’t looked at Geelongs draw. The AFL have arranged 10 practice matches for them in the run home just to get them finals ready. They are a lock for top 4.

Binman, we have had at least one game since 2018 with a higher score. In 2021.

@Dr. Gonzo I think you are 100% right. We have been predictable going inside 50 forever under Goody and then from rd 1 2022 we stopped pressuring teams once they controlled the ball in there (we dropped our zone back). But it’s changed since round 6. I think it is becoming clearer what Goody is trying to do and in my opinion it’s a recipe for premiership success, and it’s not copying the defensive half scoring game but countering it. Yes we are trying to move it quickly from defence and hit targets inside 50, but not at any cost. Our chipping around at times is trying to minimise score from forward half turnover for the opposition. When we do get it forward and don’t mark inside 50, we are applying a lot more pressure and seem to be making the opposition earn the defensive 50 exit, even when they have control. I don’t think we have seen f50 intercepts like recent games since 2021. We no longer completely drop the zone back (although we did versus hawks which was strange). It’s risky, as when sides breach our setup they are a good chance to score, but if we apply forward half pressure I think Goody is betting we score more and it’s working. The result is our score from turnovers and score from forward half have gone through the roof, and we have minimised the opposition score from forward half. If you look at what it means from a stats perspective, it’s best shown by score source differential, with our forward half score and turnover score differentials going through the roof since round 6 (see chart thanks to @WheeloRatings ) Our score from defensive half should improve but we won’t dominate it and it doesn’t matter. It will do Daniel Hoynes head in! And it’s all built on pressure. We got it 100% right against Sydney. I think our pressure rating was 192 for the entire game. If we do that against the best teams we win, and then we are playing finals and doing lots of damage. Just by way of comparison, our score from turnover differential is 14.5pts a game since Rd 6, and forward half differential is 22.7pts. That is elite and both stats are better than seasons best every year since 2020 (except Geelong in 2022 who had a higher turnover differential but lower forward differential). And the premiers have led both these stats every year since 2021 except in 2023 (when Brisbane led both but fell 5pts short in the GF). Great signs. The challenge will be that the team needs everyone switched on to apply that type of pressure and we can’t afford too many slips.

Agree. Not sure how anyone thinks he is a poor kick. Spargo is not back to his 2018-23 kicking level yet but he will get there. His kicking is as good as anyone playing in the forward half. His career goal average is 0.6 v Miers at 0.7. Miers has spent 17% more time on ground in his career as well. He needs more kicks but maybe we just need to accept he will be 7 kicks a game and they will be impactful. As long as he combines that with pressure he shouldn’t be dropped.

Or glass half empty. Here is the ladder after round 10 2024. Notice West Coast

Maybe our forwards (including Max and Tracc) can stay on the training track for longer and not leave until they have kicked 28 out of 30 from 30m. Max and Tracc might never be able to go home. https://www.afl.com.au/news/1291484/inside-the-meticulous-routine-of-the-games-most-lethally-accurate-goalkicker-north-melbourne-star-nick-larkey

I didn’t make the game so was listening on the radio and following on the abc app. At the end of the first qtr on the afl app, they quoted that although overall our pressure was 180, in our f50 it was only 90 compared to the Hawks 180 in their f50. I thought we were done when I read that, as in recent weeks our f50 pressure has been a key part of our turnaround. Our f50 tackles this week were way down. The Hawks scored 54 points from defensive half. Why was our f50 pressure so bad? Was it a tactical change by Goody or just a selection issue with Fritta, Jeffo, and a down on confidence JVR just way off it defensively.

Just adding to that. He had 11.2 pressure acts per game in 2021, which was his best season as far as pressure goes. He is 8 or 9 a game since. There is no reason he should not be at the level of say Jack Gunston who consistently averaged 11-14 pressure acts a game when kicking 50 goals a season. Gunston’s player rating (ie score impact), even when averaging the same goals per game as Fritta, is significantly higher (12-14 v Fritta at 8-10). It’s all due to creating pressure and turnover. Even if Fritta gets back to 2-3 goals a game, he shouldn’t get a free pass re pressure.

Maybe not lazy, but his debut year 2018 defensive effort was much better than any other year. The stats show that. I’m pretty sure he played forward most of that year. He could apply pressure if he chose to. 2018 pressure acts per game - 11.2 2022-25 pressure acts per game - 8.3 to 9.1 2018 tackles per game - 2.6 2022-25 tackles per game - 1.5 to 1.8 I really like the player ratings as it shows the contribution to the net expected score (ie actions likely to improve the teams chance of scoring). It rewards direct actions as well as pressure acts that result in turnovers etc and penalises poor kicks etc. Frittas 2018 player rating was 10.23. He has only exceeded 10 in one other year (2022 it was 10.24). It’s a shame that despite only kicking 17 goals in 2018 he had as much or more scoreboard impact than every other year.

The forward issues are really obvious. But the alarm bells are in defence as well. We have gone from the hardest team to win one on one contests against to the easiest in no time. Our defenders are losing 42.9% of one on one contests. That must be an AFL all time low if it continues. I think our current predicament is as much or more on the playing leadership group than Goody. Several of them mentioned the session at Staffords farm where they hashed out their values as the turning point in 21. Others mentioned the offseason work on culture that Goody wasn’t involved in as important. Our success was despite an off field mess at that time. So the playing leadership need to stand up again and take matters into their own hands and honestly hold each other to account starting with why our forwards don’t lead, why our mids bomb it long all the time, and why our defenders can’t win a one on one. Whether Goody stays or goes, nothing will change unless our players lead the club out of this mess, like they did in 2021.

There may be something in that or there may not be. Clarkos record was 122-65 with Yze as an assistant and is 97-116 without him. The reality is Yze was an assistant at both clubs right when they were in the window, except the last two years at the Hawks in 2019-2020 (when they were 16-23)

So are you saying that Goody should stand down like Buckley did in 21.

Can’t understand how you can’t be impressed with Fagan. He took Brisbane over when they were rock bottom and a mess. He did the full rebuild, not just the finishing like Goody. Ie from 18th to a flag. Yes they struggled in finals initially but they were finishing top 4 at the same stage of their rebuild when we were missing the 8. They were a young team. Since their straight sets exit in 21 they have played in the last 3 prelims, 2 GFs, and won a flag. They are 4-0 this year. Finals record is 8-2 since 21. He’s a brilliant coach.

Have you forgotten bang bang bang 6-6-6 started in 2019 I think.

As bad as the decisions were, the ease that we just allowed a stoppage in all 3 is terrible. Keep the ball alive and put the defenders under pressure.

If we move the ball quickly from the backline to get more marks inside 50, then the best we could hope for is 23-25% of inside 50s being marked. Last year we were 22.4%. Our 21 season was 22.5%. The Tigers won 2 flags with lower numbers. In fact, our percentage was the 4th best of the last 10 premiers. The poster child for ball movement were the pies in 23, who marked 24.3% of inside 50s. We need to move the ball better but it’s not our biggest problem. Our biggest problem is the other 75-80% of entries where the ball hits the ground. Our method is to create a stoppage, which opponents love as it’s easy to get numbers back and defend. It’s very different to what the tigers from 2017-2020 did, which is keep the ball alive at all costs. The post game pressers last Friday were telling. Scott was effusive about Dangerfields forward work, particularly the things that don’t show on the stat sheet like keeping the ball alive. On Friday, Geelong were never pressured in our forward 50. Yet we were every time it went into geelongs. But we can do it. Against Geelong last year was one of the games goody coached well in where he didn’t let Geelong have the free behind the ball, we put forward pressure on, and at one stage the game went for about 20 minutes without a stoppage. Guess what. We won. Inside 50s were pretty much even like last Friday as well. But there are probably 5 games in the last 3 years where we changed this up. The other 70 games we are just on a stupid rinse and repeat cycle creating forward stoppages leading to our typical congested forward line. The big concern I have, is I don’t think goody realises it’s a problem.

I believe it's a 12 month max payout. So would be to 7 April. The AFL only sets the limit for "AFL-funded" clubs. But every club appears to be AFL funded. The base level is $12.2m this year. No club just gets the base level. We receive $23.8m in 2025. The Hawks the lowest of the Vic clubs is at $18.4m. GWS and Gold Coast get $34m. So I assume the limit applies to all clubs. The limit would be written into his contract which the AFL would have signed off on. But one interesting thing is when Goody signed the extension in 2023 the limit was 6 months (it was changed to 12 months later that year). You would assume his contract was initially written that he is paid out to the AFL stipulated max.

It looks like we have a confused playing group not quite sure or believing in what they are doing. I have a view that with game plans coaches either Copy the dominant teams game plan. Develop a new method to counter the dominant game plan. Nearly every team are trying to move the ball more quickly from defensive half. That’s because the zone that the Tigers and Melbourne perfected was so dominant, and it is the way to break the zone. Any ideas on what a game plan looks like to defeat the teams that rely on fast ball movement from defensive 50? This year (small sample size), there are 3 teams scoring more heavily from forward half (Crows, Suns, Saints). They rank 1, 2, and 4 at score from turnover. What are they doing differently. Will any of them make finals?