titan_uranus

My comment was based on the present - right now Lyon's bowling better than Ahmed. So I'm not particularly phased by Ahmed's history. Ahmed had that 6-for a few matches back, and has since been impotent. Lyon's been consistent; he's never been a big turner, but unlike Ahmed he's learnt to get rid of the bad balls and be consistent through matches. His economy rate in the Shield is 1.3 runs better than Ahmed's. Australian cricket continually throws out good-to-average performers in search of the next big thing. Ahmed is a leg spinner, so people see him as the next big thing. He is capable of taking a bag of wickets, yes, but he's just as likely to be 0/100 in his debut innings. Think Bryce McGain and Jason Krejza - capable of taking wickets, incapable of stemming the flow of runs. We will not win this Ashes series if their batsmen are able to get off the hook, and that's what Ahmed will do, without being sufficiently better than Lyon to warrant his selection. We need to put some faith in Lyon, who bowls well on Australian pitches with extra bounce. If Ahmed can improve his economy rate in the current Shield season, getting rid of the bad balls, he'll be a more selectable proposition. This thread was so much more interesting/pleasant before you appeared in it.

Lyon > Ahmed, so if we play a spinner it's Lyon. That much is undebatable, Ahmed's simply nowhere near good enough right now. I'd play Lyon over Faulkner, four quicks is a recipe for disaster I think. Storms forecast for every day of the Test. Don't be surprised if it's 0-0 going to Adelaide.

I think that penalty against us was for a horsecollar tackle; I think he got a piece of Brees' collar as he dragged him down. We should have won that game, and the fact that we didn't hurts us immensely. Kaepernick is really struggling at the moment, couldn't get us any yards on our last offensive drive when we needed to burn some clock and give Lee the best chance to pin them back on their end zone. But worse still was Osgoode's incredulous penalty for touching the punt returner on a fair catch, gifting Brees a free 15 yards, as if he needed it.

I've got my evidence - most dismissals in an Ashes series. If you can find evidence to back up your dropped catches theory, bring it. If you can't, shove it.

Yes, figures. Statistics. Evidence. That kind of thing.

Meanwhile - http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia/content/story/689523.html Awks for Wade.

You're arguing that Haddin's keeping is not good. The statistic is that he just broke the record for Ashes dismissals. Your conclusion is that catching the ball has nothing to do with keeping. My conclusion is you have no idea what you're talking about.

As for the Ashes, there is a little, faint bit of pressure on our batsmen. Marcus North's Shield season so far has read 45, 118*, 50, 37, 110 and 84*. Very much in form. Phil Hughes just cracked a double century, Rob Quiney's in good form too, as is Cameron White, as is Alex Doolan. Chris Lynn is also a promising younger option too. None of those names jump out as amazing selections, especially given four of them have failed at Test level before, but at least this series if we're struggling to make runs we won't be forced to stick with the underperformers.

At the moment, as a keeper Paine is well in front of Wade. Wade's main problem is his awful keeping, and until he fixes that, his run-making (made a tonne in the Shield game) and captaincy (we won today's match despite nearly a day of rain) won't be enough.

Would be fantastic to see Tendulkar get a tonne in his final Test. He hasn't reached 100 since January 2011, which makes you wonder, if he wasn't Tendulkar, would have have kept his spot this long?

I should have entered! FWIW, I'd go with the Colts, Jets and Cardinals

I quite like the NFL site, if you can avoid some of the trash there are some decent analyses and videos, behind the scenes stuff (I always love the Sound FX clips they do, hearing coaches and players on game day is quite a novel insight), statistics are pretty good. Leaves the AFL site for dead.

Arrow's covered it, pretty much. This analysis on the NFL website also goes through the problems. Essentially, if you take the read out, he has to revert back to more 'conventional' QB play and he isn't that good at being an in-the-pocket QB. The NFL article shows how defences are taking out the read, and it leaves him with very few options, the less so if either Davis gets shut down when he gets on a downfield route. Boldin's been inconsistent this year, and until this week we've lacked both Manningham and Crabtree (who is Kaepernick's best friend on that offence). NFL defences play us better than they did last year which is messing with his formula. He's one of those players, when he's on he's unstoppable but when he's off he's toothless. Manningham and Crabtree will give him more options down the field which hopefully gets him more confident in his throwing, which I think is a key.

The NFC WC battle is heating up. Our loss to Carolina hurts us; that head-to-head result means the Panthers get in over us should we end the year on the same W-L record. But now we have to add Arizona to the list - SF, Carolina, Detroit/Chicago/GB, and now Arizona too. Technically, with Philadelphia and Dallas on 5 wins, they're somewhat around the mark too, but I can't see an NFC East team making the playoffs outside of winning that division.

Kap had one of his Kap days. Awful passing. 11/22 for 91 yards, and the INT late in the fourth sealed the game. Carolina deserves to be considered legit. If the Saints lose to the Cowboys, they'll be leading NFC South I think. Green Bay won't make the playoffs this year without Rodgers. Detroit for NFC North? Indy got very lucky this week, with Tennessee losing Jake Locker and thus losing to Jacksonville (which shouldn't have happened even without Locker). That loss to St Louis shows the hole in the offence Reggie Wayne's injury has left. Ravens and Steelers close the gap in the AFC North. Bengals not playing well enough to close that division out. Pittsburgh is awful but they're only three back. Same deal with the Giants, who will only be two back in the NFC East if Dallas loses. Denver did what it had to do, with the Chargers cooked in the AFC I think. Now having to deal with Baltimore for that wild card as well as the Jets and the Titans.

Agreed, it's a huge week. Denver are the big favourites against SD, but if you look closer, of SD's four losses, three have been right at the death, meaning they've pushed all their opponents, and have beaten the Colts. Rivers is putting up elite numbers too. Denver's only win over a team with a winning record is Dallas, and their defence has let a fair amount of points through (I mean, they conceded 19 points to Jacksonville). The offence usually gets the job done, but the last few weeks Peyton hasn't been at the same level. Denver still should win it, but I don't think it's a fait accompli. Baltimore have to win, but I don't think they will. Same for Atlanta. I think this week is the end of the road for those two sides. The last thing SF needs is a loss to Carolina. That would put us on the same win-loss ratio battling for the same wild card position. Beating them puts us two in front, helping us push for the first wild card on our own. I think we'll be right, our team's just coming together and our offence is really starting to click (Manningham, Crabtree coming back), plus Aldon Smith is due back some time on defence (hopefully).

If he can't make it back, then you absolutely have to win the next three. Get those on the board, move to 8-3, and then try your best to win one of those last three road games to help push you up. Assuming Wallace is good enough to beat Philly, NYG and Minnesota (questionable, but we'll assume it), the game at Detroit is season-defining (for both sides).

Australia A finally batting down in Hobart. Doolan 31 off 35, poor guy didn't get a proper chance to do anything of merit. Khawaja just 3, rule a line through him. Shaun Marsh currently 26 off 58, but there isn't enough time in the match for him to make a proper innings to push his case. Good to see Rogers make 88 and 117 in the Shield. White's good form continues, backing up his 48 with a 70*. Ahmed struggled again, whilst Nathan Lyon didn't do too much (got Rogers out both times though), but had good economy (another reason to take Lyon over Ahmed). Bailey only made 41 in the second dig in Queensland, not ideal from him. Chris Lynn might be one to watch though, with an 81 and 72*. None at all. He's been around the Aussie team though, hasn't he? I'm sure we'll hear his name during the summer.

Wallace is going to have to play a lot better if you're going to make it from here. You have to bank the wins against Philly, NYG and Minnesota in the next three weeks. Can't afford to drop those. The last five games include road trips to Detroit, Dallas and Chicago, alternating with what appear easier games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta at home. Bank the upcoming three with Wallace, then go 2-3 in the final five and you'll end up 10-6. Probably won't be enough for the division the way it's heading, nor for a wild card I don't think. So you have to convert at least one of those three tough road games. No Rodgers = no chance. If Rodgers makes it back in time for the Detroit game, and helps you pull our one or two of those three road games, you should be right. Sweeping Detroit will help you too.

Nice win by your boys in prime time! Interesting move though, when Ponder went down you went to Cassel and not Freeman. I wonder how that will affect the rest of your year, given you seem to have banked on Ponder. Washington is such a shadow of 2012. They're in a weak division, sure, but if the Cowboys beat the Saints they're three games back with 7 to play which is dangerous territory. They were 3-6 last year though, and rounded out the year with 7-0, so I guess it's possible.

Siddle, Harris, Johnson and Hilfenhaus are all being rested from next week's Shield games in preparation for the first Test. http://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/pacemen-put-on-ice-for-ashes-20131107-2x499.html If we have to resort to Hilfenhaus this series, then we're stuffed.

Bailey out for 34, didn't add to his overnight score. Disappointing. Meanwhile Cowan continues, now on 75. Warner's up to 60 off 52. Rain in Hobart preventing Doolan from getting out there and having another shot at the Test side.

Warner showing his 'grit' with 28* off 21 and 6 fours. I suspect he's a given for the first Test, though I would prefer him never to play Test cricket again, so it probably doesn't matter. Siddle with the early wicket of Maddinson is a good sign; he's been a bit out of form so far this season, and we're no chance in the Ashes if he's not taking wickets. If Cowan goes on to make a century, I wonder whether that will change the selectors' minds? I doubt it, I feel like he'd need to make successive big scores because his cards appear stamped, but at least he'll be in form if we need back up.

He's in the side because he has talent, there aren't many decent batsmen going around in Australia at the moment, and CA is desperate for Australian cricket to have 'stars' to attract kids and the like. Grit isn't everything, which is why Cowan's Test days look numbered. But Warner doesn't have it. He's not the kind of batsman to just bunker down in the face of strong bowling, he doesn't have that lion-hearted fighting spirit. That's not him. His runs come from big shots and dominating bowlers.

Indy has its flaws, absolutely, but they're going to make the playoffs and when it comes down to it, you have to be able to beat the best. Indy has shown it can lift its game when required to match the best. Of course, KC and Denver will get their turns when they play each other, and KC will get Indy later too, so we'll be able to make better comparisons then.