martin

33 minutes ago, bananas said:

Just having a quick play with the Ladder Predictor, I set it with us having a 10 point loss, and Geelong go past our percentage with a 50 point win, but fail to go past us with a 40 point win.

The extra thirty points they got out of Freo after they cracked the ton were the real killer. That win was so huge that the Cats passing us on percentage went from 'possible but unlikely' to 'more likely than not'. What are the chances Gold Coast get within fifty points of them?

Thanks for that although a bit deflating.Outlines the need for us to win this week. Playing the Giants at Spotless in a few weeks time with players back would be very difficult. Prefer any other fixture. Even Sydney away. SCG might suit us.

14 minutes ago, bananas said:

Assuming Collingwood beat Freo

and

Assuming Geelong pulverise Gold Coast (enough to make up the percentage gap to us)

Then

A win has us fifth and playing Geelong (we leapfrog GWS and overtake the loser of Haw v Syd on percentage)

A loss has us eighth and going up to Sydney for a re-match with GWS.

How much approximately do Geelong have to win by to pass our % assuming we have a close loss?

5 minutes ago, RedButMostlyBlue said:

If we win, we're likely to play the cats at the G. That's the best possible outcome given that we've had them covered this year, and we will most certainly be out to seek revenge where it counts.

Totally agree. Love to get the Cats at the 'G. Just looking at the worst case scenario to avoid Giants in Sydney. Need a mathematician do give me an idea of a manageable Geelong victory.

Should we lose to GWS by a narrow margin how much do Geelong have to win by to leapfrog our percentage? Personally i would love a game at the MCG and avoid GWS at Spotless Stadium.

Mate said Vanenberg will go for an elbow?

FWIW. James Hird missed all but two games of the 1999 season with a serious navicular injury. Came back to captain a premiership team in 2000. Won subsequent B & F's and AA selections.There is hope for Jesse with an injury that appears a lot less serious and apparently caught earlier. 

6 hours ago, TGR said:

Each club, no doubt, has the hail mary kick-in, that is HIGH RISK, that is put into play when a team needs to score a goal or 2 with a minute or 2 to play.  This play might be a guts-or-nuts torp or a play-on-with-block to get around the man-on-the-mark.

What I saw with 1 minute to go yesterday was pure amateur-hour.  Jordan Lewis was never going to play on.  Jordan Lewis was never going to torp it.  Sydney could put their house on his kick landing no more than 55/60 (including goal square) from their goal.  They cram this area in the guts, and we kick a short and ultimately go wide.

The game was over when he had the ball in his hands with 1 minute to go.  We were never going to threaten.  The most amateur play from a personnel/structure viewpoint I have seen at AFL level for a long time.  Unforgivable at this level.

Real leadership and brains +/- planning would have dictated that the guy kicking out could either risk playing-on for overlap and territory OR could have torped it to potentially 70 (including goal square) from their goal.

Yawn

5 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

McVeigh and Jack played against Collingwood and if Collingwood had a key defender to play on Buddy Sydney would have lost. Plus both of them are past it.

Rohan and Hannebery were both woefully out of form before their injuries and they're going to rush Hannebery back into the seniors on their own admission because they're lacking leadership (which is covering for the truth, which is their kids are faltering).

Sydney deserves respect, but in context.

I sincerely hope u are right but they are generally quality players and replacing youngsters. 

Rohan and Henneberry definitely back this week.Grundy possible. Add that to recent incusions of McVeigh and Jack and the alarm bells are ringing.

Would roll the dice and play both AVB and Hunt. At their best massive ins. Both underdone but running out of time to be hardened at AFL should we make the finals.

1 minute ago, drysdale demon said:

That is a bit harsh, you have no idea what his state of mind could be.

Neither do u.Article makes no reference to state of mind other that he's just had enough. Not surprised. 

If not pushed, which i suspect, poor form on the eve of Casey's finals campaign. Let down Freo now us. Frees up a spot. No loss.

Petracca shoulder?

Jayden Hunt? Reckon Fritsch needs a well earned rest. 

4 hours ago, TGR said:

Amount of times Lewis goes for the kick of the ground when the ball is even off the ground, is quite alarming.

 

 

If Melbourne are after another cooked player to bolster our 'experience' on field, we should also go for Harry Taylor.  At least we would show some consistency.

Yawn

25 minutes ago, Watts Jurrah Dunn? said:

In: JKH

Out: Smith

Need run on the 'G, especially with heavy legs after Darwin. Pedersen, Tim Smith and Tyson are not the answer.

 

I like that but we also need fresh legs: In- JKH,Vince   Out: Smith, Spargo

Surely JKH must get a crack at it before its too late.

3 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Absolutely true.

4 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Absolutely true.

Totally believe it as it would be easier for Goodwin and co. to avoid situations they could not possibly explain i.e Frost,Stretch.

20 hours ago, Demons11 said:

So you are saying our recruiting has been bad of late? If so, you have no idea.

The game is won at the contest and that’s what they recruited for 3 years and then they got speed last year.  It would be a great idea to get outside speed first and then have no one to get the ball. 

I think you should change your name to Barry Prendergast. 

Who is the speed from last year? Spargo? And...?  Maybe Fritsch. I like Baker but he is a bit of a dasher, not speed. Anyone else? Balic? Lever? Petty? Long way to go to get the outside pace we so badly need.

2 minutes ago, goodwindees said:

Spot on Martin.  Selection has been and continues to be ONE of this Football Dept's greatest knock. 

I wrote in an earlier Post that I believe poor Selection has cost us 3 games this year.  

Geelong - Maynard & Wagner

Port - Tyson & T Smith

Saints - Petty & Tyson.

 

 

I would like to think that things would improve at the selection table but have lost all confidence. Would love to know what Goodwin said to Frost  as to the reasons Petty was selected ahead of him.Also, rretty sure Simon can't look Stretch in the face and continue to tell him he's missed out and strings outstanding games at Casey. Hope one the Adelaide teams pick him up and he becomes an established senior player.No star yet but he has more pace than most in our team and has never really been given a decent crack.

Hard to imagine that anything could top the selection of Maynard in round one and Tim Smith last week ,but the choice of Harrison Petty is simply staggering.

The boy has shown some promise at Casey but not outstanding. Added to that he is a skinny, underdeveloped 18 year old. I actually feel sorry for him and hope he develops into a fine player.

Both Frost and Keilty have been impassablee videnced again yesterday against the Bombers. Why these two have been ovelooked is perplexing particularly in the case of Frost. Yes, neither are champions, but a long way ahead of Petty atm. Frost adds a dynamic of pace sadly lacking.

Many reasons we lost close encounters against the Cats, Power and Saints but when it's so tight one player can make the difference. I do not look forward to any Thursday selection night.

On 6/23/2018 at 10:14 AM, TGR said:

Agree.

 

At the end of the day, Lewis won’t have been the difference between us making finals and not.

 

Listen to Roos last night, and he can’t believe we leave speed in the seconds (Garlett and Hunt (pre-injury)).

 

Lewis wasn’t our worst.  “Give it to me Harmes” and “Body language Hogan” could take claim to that last night.

 

But the Lewis experiment has failed, delayed development, and slowed an already one-paced side.  All for ‘leadership’.  This recruitment personified the veil of negativity and lack of trust in our own leaders and their capacity to write their own history.

Opposition coaches now are instructing players to take Lewis and Vince on, and disregard their perceived pressure.  You can carry one; not two.

Yawn

18 minutes ago, SFebey said:

Should have beaten Cats, Pies and Port. But crumbled dismally. That would’ve set us up for a serious assault, but they don’t want it.

Selection a major factor in the Cats and Power losses.

Hoping one of the first items on his agenda is to dump the NT or, at the very least, negotiate a minimum 7 day break. Queen's  Birthday negotiations  could be very interesting!

47 minutes ago, TGR said:

Quote of the year.

Our biggest weakness is foot speed entering our D50 from a quick play.

 

The club either has the balls now to get games into Frost and Hunt, or go down in flames in finals with Lewis and Vince plodding.

Yawn